# Here comes Ike



## kraymond (Aug 12, 2005)

Here is the new track with another exciting weekend next week.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200809_5day.html#a_topad


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## tcbayman (Apr 27, 2006)

Yep! there goes my trip to Chandeleur next week! Im still trying to be optomistic though


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## Dolphin Girl (May 21, 2004)

Not much of them left as it is. Gustav did a number on them.

http://www.texaskayakfisherman.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=101330


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## DannyMac (May 22, 2004)

Looks like FEMA had better start evacuating N.O. again!


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## capt. david (Dec 29, 2004)

way to early to tell. i don't like the w sw movement. once this guy starts moving more west northwest i will feels better. hell it needs to move due north! glad i am still boarded up. lol wife's car is even still packed from the last scare lol.


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## yakfishin (Dec 8, 2005)

I have had a badddddddd feeling about this storm ever sense it formed. Not for any special reason, just a bad feeling. Hope I am completely wrong. Poor Hati is getting a true cleansing. Everyone have a safe weekend.


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## Profish00 (May 21, 2004)

Gustav was Katrina, Ike is Rita......Hunker down.


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## Stuart (May 21, 2004)

If it keeps the west/southwest track it has being doing for even another day, it could get interesting for Texas. The historical tracks of storms going way back is interesting. None of them that have taking the current track have hit Texas if I am reading that right.


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## Tankfxr (Dec 26, 2007)

This is another one of those deals were i really dont want it to hit anyone but i really really really dont want it to hit us. I just bought a house and moved in last week would be rather discouraging to have it torn down by a big hurricane. This one is not that large but it is powerful and i think it has the potential to do an tremendious ammount of damage.


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## capt. david (Dec 29, 2004)

last sat image i saw looked like it started moving more nw. keep up with current cords. and you can figure the movement yourself. modern technology is great but chart plotting yourself is a tried and proven method.


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## roundman (May 21, 2004)

DannyMac said:


> Looks like FEMA had better start evacuating N.O. again!


 we are now included in the cone !


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## notthatdeep (Feb 5, 2005)

roundman,

don't know which site your looking at, but the nhc site doesnt include us in the cone....yet.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/204413.shtml?5day#contents


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## capt. david (Dec 29, 2004)

computer models don't look good. once south of la has storm movement west! not good at all! wait till it starts to enter gulf.


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## peelin' drag (Oct 21, 2005)

Who is in the cone?


roundman said:


> we are now included in the cone !


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## roundman (May 21, 2004)

weather channel on tv showed that tune in now,, guess it depends how far south and if that trough picks it up or not,


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## Harley (Jul 5, 2007)

Just walked in from watching the weather channel, 135 MPH CAT 4 storm. It is moving WSW at 12 MPH. 
Not good.


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## DPG (Aug 13, 2005)

Most of the models have it headed towards Texas...

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200809_model.html

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_09.gif


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## txjoker (Jun 21, 2005)

Please pardon my saying something here... You doom and gloom guys kill me. I mean, seriously, this thing is 120+ hrs from hitting any type of land and we are already talking about people having "bad feelings", etc... People in TX were having "bad feelings" when Gustav was still 4 days out. 

Let's just wait and see what this thing does before we start preparing for Armageddon. lol Tomorrow, people are going to start a thread asking about where to store their livestock and such just in case. Good gosh!


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## roundman (May 21, 2004)

some people need 4 days to prepare,, then there are the ones that wait till the last minuite and complain about all the bs they had to go thru to get supplies,


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## txjoker (Jun 21, 2005)

Believe me, if we get told to evacuate I'll be out way before you. Until then, I'm ready to live life normally. We live on the gulf. Hurricanes happen. Let's move on. One thing is for sure if it comes... I won't be sitting around posting on a chatboard about it...


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## osobrujo (Jan 13, 2005)

If most hurricanes coming into the gulf head west/northwest...

why do so many folks head ...

that's right,...

west/northwest?!?!


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## country7 (May 27, 2007)

new 11pm trac is straight for tejas good thing its only a forcast!!


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## Fishinpayne (Aug 15, 2005)

better to be in the forecast now as they never hit where intended.


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## DannyMac (May 22, 2004)

Two HP systems, one over Florida and another is moving over Taxas will influence IKE. If they stay as is, it will be the middle gulf coast, if the systems move west we need to lookout.


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## tngbmt (May 30, 2004)

i should have left the plywood on the windows. it looks like NO evac will be heading this way again


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## Mad Mike (Dec 28, 2005)

The early forecasts showed it heading towards the east coast of Florida. The weathermen were wrong about that, so maybe they will be wrong about it hitting Texas.


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## DannyMac (May 22, 2004)

Check out the US Navy tropical cyclone page, Ike has been shifting to the NW on every up date. Keep you fingers crossed the HP systems hold in place and it goes some where else.


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## KJON (May 1, 2006)

I've started looking at the Fox News site, if you click on tracker under the Ike story it will show the European model. A guy in Emergency Mgt. told me that they watch that one pretty close, I don't know why but it's pretty interesting.


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## squidmotion (Apr 5, 2007)

for me.... all bets are off until they reach the gulf.... timing has a lot to do with these things.... 

thinking of buying some plywood this week.... sad3sm


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## mad marlin (Jan 17, 2008)

as per the last prediction of today from stormpulse the center of ike would be very close to the Texas cost vs NO , not good if this prediction is accurate.
http://www.stormpulse.com/fullscreen/hurricane-ike-2008


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## Fuelin (Jun 21, 2005)

mad marlin said:


> as per the last prediction of today from stormpulse the center of ike would be very close to the Texas cost vs NO , not good if this prediction is accurate.
> http://www.stormpulse.com/fullscreen/hurricane-ike-2008


Man that one dosn't look very good at all. WAY to early to tell I guess


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## TheAnt (Jul 1, 2008)

osobrujo said:


> If most hurricanes coming into the gulf head west/northwest...
> 
> why do so many folks head ...
> 
> ...


Living south of Houston we have to. The sheer numbers of folks they put on the highways and motels precludes us goiun noth unless w ehave a plce to stay. If we go south it is coast. Victoria is too small to accomodate too many folks. So we go to Austin/San Antonio where there are hotels and terrain that flash floods when hurricanes go there.

Typically 'canes turn north after they make landfall. Rita did that and hammered Cleveland and East Texas. We ended up in Wheelock/Blackjack. You gotta be a real Texan to know where that is, heh. just east of Hearne, ha!

The main thing is to get away from the coast where the intensity is greatest.

In Rita it took up 14 hours to get to Hempstead, normally a 2 hour drive.

Houston sent some of their people (contrary to plans) on routes south into Brazoria County, a planned route for our people rather than opening their contra-flow lanes in a timely manner. So we plan an escape only to have it thwarted by Houston... I like much of what White has done there but I remember his statements in public forum for doing a good job.

Rita was rough. This may be worse.


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## TheAnt (Jul 1, 2008)

That said where they project out 5 or more days usually is wrong and it turns north... I don't wish it on us but I pray itdon't hit Louisiana, Mississippi, Abalama, nor Florida... That leaves us... it sux one way or another.


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## sandollr (Jun 6, 2008)

Just headed back to San Antonio at 9:30 this morning from a guide-fishing weekend, and let me tell ya .. there were tons of BIG BOATS on trailers un-assing the Corpus area. Must be some danger of it headed to the Texas coast.


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## Fuelin (Jun 21, 2005)

They were pretty much right on with Gustav I thought.


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## gitchesum (Nov 18, 2006)

They originally had Gustav hitting the Florida Panhandle and heading up to the east coast.


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## Fuelin (Jun 21, 2005)

gitchesum said:


> They originally had Gustav hitting the Florida Panhandle and heading up to the east coast.


Thats right. I guess they didn't really get a handle on it till it got in the gulf.


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## redheadhunter2004 (Sep 17, 2004)

TheAnt said:


> That said where they project out 5 or more days usually is wrong and it turns north... I don't wish it on us but I pray itdon't hit Louisiana, Mississippi, Abalama, nor Florida... That leaves us... it sux one way or another.


There's always Southern Mexico.


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## Free_loader (Nov 4, 2004)

GFDL has hit hitting La. again ... so that's where i'm placing my bets


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## BALZTOWAL (Aug 29, 2006)

LETS HOPE IT IS NOW ORLEANS, I NEED TO KILL SOME TEAL THIS WEEKEND.


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## SEAHUNT186 (Dec 24, 2004)

Not looking good right now....
But too early to tell if you ask me...
Steve


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## predator22 (Feb 2, 2005)

I predict its gonna hit somewhere.


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## DannyMac (May 22, 2004)

Latest coordinates on Ike, 28N, 92W. The previous coordinates were 27N, 91W. Its still early but the forecast track is starting a swing to the north.


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## Hard Head (May 21, 2004)

It's going to hit somewhere alright!


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## FishinHippie (Jun 19, 2005)

by tuesday night, after it finishes with cuba, the track will be better...

but right now.. it don't look good.. but it is definatly too far to be certain yet


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## Blue.dog (May 8, 2005)

Would you believe, I am helping my daughter move to Victoria on Saturday. Open flat bed.

So, I have no choice but to board up now, since I leave for Temple on Wednesday.

blue.dog


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## Texxan1 (Dec 31, 2004)

it is NOT going to hit anywhere near galveston.. PERIOD end of story


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## Stumpgrinder (Feb 18, 2006)

We have been doing some wholesale prognostificating here at the plant.

Ike will make landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Pensacola. Subject , of course, to some fluctuations in pressure ridges and various and sundry chingaderas.


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## espanolabass (Jul 20, 2006)

Stumpgrinder said:


> We have been doing some wholesale prognostificating here at the plant.
> 
> Ike will make landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Pensacola. Subject , of course, to some fluctuations in pressure ridges and various and sundry chingaderas.


HUH? Oh; Yeah, Sure, ok?


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## Lady Jelly Fish (Aug 16, 2007)

Our reservations are made for Kerrville.​


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## roundman (May 21, 2004)

is a chingaderas part of the chupacabra family ?


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## Stumpgrinder (Feb 18, 2006)

twin brothers, different mothers



roundman said:


> is a chingaderas part of the chupacabra family ?


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## Bevo&Pevo (Jul 22, 2008)

YEAH! WHAT TEXXAN1 SAID. PERIOD.


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## reel love (May 21, 2004)

ike info just updated on www.hardcoreweather.com. not looking good for houston/galveston. may want to check it out. 
michelle


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## saltaholic (Feb 19, 2005)

*uh oh*

dang


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## ccbluewater (May 21, 2004)

DANG IT, there goes the snapper holes....


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## reel love (May 21, 2004)

about 75 pct of the models are showing south of houston/galveston. more liking corpus. 4 models going thru matagorda. still a **** shoot, but too close to home for me.
michelle


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## SURF Buster (Feb 17, 2008)

SCARY!!!!


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## Mrschasintail (Dec 8, 2004)

Michelle, me and the kid, hubby, dogs and pigs, are coming to your house!!


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## Duke (Dec 27, 2007)

Now they say if it stays on the new tract Matagorda Bay area. Darn


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## Pocketfisherman (May 30, 2005)

At 5pm EST, The new official track is moved farther south again. It looks like a high pressure ridge is going to build over the southern US and that should protect Houston and points east.


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## gunreelfish (May 7, 2006)

For us in Freeport, Matagorda Bay landfall would be the worst case.


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## Stumpgrinder (Feb 18, 2006)

A bad boy running into Matagorda bay might still just put a good whuppin on Houston. Carla in 62 made landfall at Indianola.


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## Stuart (May 21, 2004)

Stumpgrinder said:


> A bad boy running into Matagorda bay might still just put a good whuppin on Houston. Carla in 62 made landfall at Indianola.


Yep. Oh, and btw that was 61. My older sister was one week old when the folks had to pack up and get out of dodge.


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## GunDog (Jun 6, 2006)

Fingers are crossed for teh Valley. Have a elk hunt planned for this weekend, do not want to cancel it to pick up the boat. Argh!!!


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## roundman (May 21, 2004)

the track has changed a dozen times , i predict it will change at least a half dozen more !


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## kenny (May 21, 2004)

Not many days ago it was predicted to go into central Florida. Just because Houston/Galveston is near the center of the cone doesn't matter. It has the same chance of making landfall anywhere in the cone. In fact a good percentage of storms land outside of the predicted cone.
Tomorrow evening and Wednesday morning we should have a better idea. It's a weather event and as such can always fool us into believing we have some control through our predictions.


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## roundman (May 21, 2004)

i think they should have never swayed away from ladies names only and started using men's names too ,, they jus cant make up their minds! rut-roh,, take cover! j/k ladies!


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## DannyMac (May 22, 2004)

Just checked the US Navy site, and the predicted landfall on Saturday is the Palacios area. I know its way early, but we should know in the next 18 hrs.


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## Stumpgrinder (Feb 18, 2006)

Sorry, I get my years discombobulated. I was 1 year old and dont remember a whole lot about the deal. LOL



Stuart said:


> Yep. Oh, and btw that was 61. My older sister was one week old when the folks had to pack up and get out of dodge.


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## Horns23 (Jul 24, 2006)

Stump, I was 4 when Carla hit. We had to ride it out because we didn't even own a car. Took the bus or walked everywhere. By the way I don't remember us getting any FEMA money. I wonder if we could get our check now with interest. LOL


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## notthatdeep (Feb 5, 2005)

I was 16 at the time...didn't get any FEMA money either. Thanks for reminding me of the debt they owe me. Uhh, how much could that be?


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## speckledred (Jun 1, 2004)

That debt would be hundreds times more than you could imagine the way FEMA gives away our taxes. Let's just pray we are all spared the rath of this storm.


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## krusty0001 (Nov 3, 2006)

Hurricane risk zones and escape routes.

Dangit. I knew it was coming, eventually... Our Rockport trailer is in zone3 and the boat is parked in zone1. Looks like I am heading down Tue or Wed to board up and grab the boat.

http://www.txdps.state.tx.us/dem/hurricane.htm


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## gordaflatsstalker (Jul 3, 2008)

New track has it heading straight to Corpus Christi.


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## Im Headed South (Jun 28, 2006)

Looks like Cedar just might get opened up after all. I guess I know what I will be doing Thursday and Friday. Anyone having a boarding up party in Rockport? I have plenty of room for parking of boat or RV's at my house about 30 miles east of San Antonio if its needed by any 2coolers. My wife heard on the news this evening that if shoots up just right we could see 100 mph winds here. 

Mike


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## jighed (Jul 20, 2006)

Look at the 10pm update om www.stormpulse.com

it is moving furthure south every update.


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## Bevo&Pevo (Jul 22, 2008)

There are alot of nervous people around right now. That's for sure. Demi-John is my full residence. I look at the water every morning when I go downstairs and every evening when I come up the stairs. Most of my family is gone; so what I got is me. I plan to haul myself South as far as I can come Thurs. sometime. I work in the natural gas business and will need to get back ASAP. Just don't know what I'll get to...


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## Melon (Jun 1, 2004)

Hard Head said:


> It's going to hit somewhere alright!












HH after reading your post I had a terrible mental image of Trouthunter imitating you for some weird reason.

Luv ya bro! lmao


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## Rack Ranch (May 25, 2004)

Hopefully it keeps that trend up B/C that track puts the eye in my back yard 


jighed said:


> Look at the 10pm update om www.stormpulse.com
> 
> it is moving furthure south every update.


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## krusty0001 (Nov 3, 2006)

When will they call for an evacuation?


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## Melon (Jun 1, 2004)

Guys by Weds they will have changed their predictions again,maybe tommorrow?. I learned not to get to emotional when these things are upon us. Wife been flipping out wanted me to board up today here on the east side of houston. It's really still too far off to be certain where this Monster gonna hit. Just my penny.


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## bobl (Aug 11, 2005)

I have not posted in a while , but my thougths are with you .
Be safe and do not be hero's . Been to 2, just to save boat and 
house . will not do it agian . This 1 looks bad. Please be safe. 
Bob


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## Redfishon (Nov 10, 2005)

I just got my travel trailor down to Rockport 2 weeks ago.. This sucks..Maybe it will clean out Cedar Bayou though..


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## DannyMac (May 22, 2004)

Lets get to Thursday and then take a look, if Ike is still on a westward track we can all breath a sigh of relief. As long as the HP over Florida strengthens and moves west we should be OK!


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## BlueWaveCapt (Jan 8, 2007)

I'm seeing it (as of now) as a Cat 1 and it hasn't entered the Gulf yet. Am I looking at bad info, or is there something I'm missing?

I don't understand all the chaos about a storm that isn't even over open water in the Gulf yet.


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## wading_fool (May 3, 2005)

I am waiting until tonight or tomorrow morning to make the decision to go get my boat and stuff out of the condo in Port Aransas. The way the models keep flipping around nobody has a handle on it until it reaches the gulf


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## GunDog (Jun 6, 2006)

Looks like the prediction for landfall has moved south again. I hope it keeps moving south or does not creep northward.


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## capt. david (Dec 29, 2004)

no evacuations called for yet. most likely will not happen till late wed or early thurs. if you have a boat on the coast might be best to get it out of the water or a slip. going to get mine this morning. other than that let's not panic!


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## Capt. Tim Bradbeer (Jun 27, 2006)

David, hollar at me if you need any help.



capt. david said:


> no evacuations called for yet. most likely will not happen till late wed or early thurs. if you have a boat on the coast might be best to get it out of the water or a slip. going to get mine this morning. other than that let's not panic!


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## donkeyman (Jan 8, 2007)

Well every update keeps it heading futher into South Texas,looked like it was gonna hit Galveston yesterday,Padre today this shows they are still a long way off of predicting the paths of Hurricanes with all the changes I have seen.


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## capt. david (Dec 29, 2004)

tim thanks for the offer. i might just come stay with you! lol it would be the hell out of driving to austin or elsewhere.


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## Rack Ranch (May 25, 2004)

http://www.stormpulse.com/

Keeps moving South..


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## txjoker (Jun 21, 2005)

Are we still dooming and glooming and having "bad feelings" about this storm? The Ike frenzy seems to have disappeared from the board in the last 24 hours! LMAO


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## wading_fool (May 3, 2005)

Unfortunately it just moved North again back to Corpus....this is like a bad thriller movie, you know its coming but you don't know from where or when lol


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## Free_loader (Nov 4, 2004)

wading_fool said:


> Unfortunately it just moved North again back to Corpus....this is like a bad thriller movie, you know its coming but you don't know from where or when lol


all of the spegetti models have it going to brownsville
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200809_model.html#a_topad

well...except for those 2 off the wall ones

where are you seeing a corpus model? (i realize it's hard to translate emption thru text .. so i'm not asking to be a dick ... just curious were you're looking)


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## wading_fool (May 3, 2005)

www.hardcoreweather.com and also www.stormpulse.com

Hardcoreweather has been the best, its a posting board like 2cool and gathers up to minute advisories and tracks and posts them almost as soon as they are released


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## Capt. Tim Bradbeer (Jun 27, 2006)

No problem David, Echo and Belle love having company.



capt. david said:


> tim thanks for the offer. i might just come stay with you! lol it would be the hell out of driving to austin or elsewhere.


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## S-3 ranch (May 26, 2004)

*what to do ?*



wading_fool said:


> Unfortunately it just moved North again back to Corpus....this is like a bad thriller movie, you know its coming but you don't know from where or when lol


my boat is up on blocks in CC right now and i don't know what to do as it look like CC might get slamed , if i can get it out off the shop i have no idea which way to take it ? i guess i will just pray insurance will fix it if CC gets hit


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## spec (Oct 14, 2004)

anyone else having trouble with hardcoreweather website???


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## WESTTU (May 23, 2007)

All I know is this will screw up the bird hunting


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## gater (May 25, 2004)

*Doom and gloom*

TxRaider maybe I take your comments wrong but many people are concerned like myself because some of stand to lose alot. Not sure if you ever had to endure the aftermath of of a major storm but I can tell you its no fun.

As far as the latest of them moving it north, its going to change every model run. I look for the next model run to be even futher north. The one model that is closest to Galveston has been the most reliable with Ike so far and is the model of choice when it comes to predicting winter time weather (low pressure troughs, one of the primarly steering factors for Hurricanes)

I'm not taking my eyes off of it until landfall and I think everyone else would be thinking the same way. Be safe! Gater


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## Stuart (May 21, 2004)

All I know is that after every caine season I promise myself I will trim some trees around the house, make some window covers that I am missing, organize paperwork, take pictures and make list of valuables. Sadly I never follow through with most of it, so here I am again sweating it out.


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## br1006 (Mar 24, 2006)

I guess I will wait 24 hours to decide if I need to go to Port A and batten down the hatches or not? I dont want to wait too long if it looks like it is heading that way and then get stuck in the traffic jam heading home but, I dont want to go do all the work if it is not necessary either!


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## Bobby (May 21, 2004)

txjoker said:


> Are we still dooming and glooming and having "bad feelings" about this storm? The Ike frenzy seems to have disappeared from the board in the last 24 hours! LMAO


You really think its funny?


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## surffan (Oct 5, 2004)

br1006 said:


> I guess I will wait 24 hours to decide if I need to go to Port A and batten down the hatches or not? I dont want to wait too long if it looks like it is heading that way and then get stuck in the traffic jam heading home but, I dont want to go do all the work if it is not necessary either!


I'm in the same situation as you except mine is a 31ft travel trailer in Rockport. Do I bring it all the way back to Georgetown (we normally keep it in Rockport till late October when the Winter Texans show up)? Do I run it as far as Cuero and leave it there for the storm. Went through this with Rita (trailer was in Port A then, love the Island but it finally got to be too many $$$ for me) drug trailer back home called back down only to find they had nothing but sunshine and calm winds.


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## wading_fool (May 3, 2005)

I think the 7 am update tomorrow will tell the tale and either put me on the road or not....if it makes a course change after that I will live with the results


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## treble damage (Sep 7, 2006)

The next model run will be at 2 pm, but not sure if things have moved around enough to change the 8 am one. I think the 8 pm one tonight will tell us a bunch. I'm in Port A and we are holding steady but are ready to start boarding and shuttering, which we will start tomorrow if the models move it up more to the north.


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## gater (May 25, 2004)

*Models*

NOAA will have it's Gulf Stream in the air today and that may help shed some light on how things will transpire with the steering of Ike over the next few days. Gater


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## txjoker (Jun 21, 2005)

No PM, Bobby? I would think that a mod, of all people, would choose to address this privately. No worries, though. Thank you for the reddie. I am glad that I am also able to give reputation as well.

My comments were not a personal attack against one person. I do not think the storm is funny at all. The frenzy that people work themselves into is quite sad. Instead of accepting the fact that a storm is coming and doing something constructive about it people want to post about how their gut is telling them this is going to be a bad storm. When, in actuality, it is no where near the coast of any US state as of yet.

As I said in an earlier post. We live on the coast. Hurricanes happen. Accept it and move on. When the time comes, we can make a decision on what to do. Otherwise, I think it is just wasted keystrokes posting how bad things "might" get when there is no way of knowing what will happen.



Bobby said:


> You really think its funny?


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## Wolf6151 (Jun 13, 2005)

Stuart said:


> All I know is that after every caine season I promise myself I will trim some trees around the house, make some window covers that I am missing, organize paperwork, take pictures and make list of valuables. Sadly I never follow through with most of it, so here I am again sweating it out.


Your not the only one, I've been telling myself that I'm going to measure and cut plywood for the windows every fall when it's cool outside for the last 5-6 yrs. as well as organize the house paperwork and take pictures but I never seem to actually do it.


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## Chase4556 (Aug 26, 2008)

Looks like brownsville now? Thankfully, we couldnt reel in a hurricane if we wanted to.


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## kweber (Sep 20, 2005)

the latest computer models have changed to the middle Tx coast.


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## plhsurfer (Jun 28, 2005)

kweber said:


> the latest computer models have changed to the middle Tx coast.


Here is a comparison of the GFDL Model run from 06GMT (left) vs 12GMT run (right)

You can view the 12gmt model run here.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdl...ke09l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation


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## boat_money (May 21, 2004)

major change at the 2:00 update. if you've got a place on the mid tx coast, wait until 8:00 this evening to view the models. hopefully they change...

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200809_model.html#a_topad


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## Mont (Nov 17, 1998)

txjoker said:


> No PM, Bobby? I would think that a mod, of all people, would choose to address this privately. No worries, though. Thank you for the reddie. I am glad that I am also able to give reputation as well.
> 
> My comments were not a personal attack against one person. I do not think the storm is funny at all. The frenzy that people work themselves into is quite sad. Instead of accepting the fact that a storm is coming and doing something constructive about it people want to post about how their gut is telling them this is going to be a bad storm. When, in actuality, it is no where near the coast of any US state as of yet.
> 
> As I said in an earlier post. We live on the coast. Hurricanes happen. Accept it and move on. When the time comes, we can make a decision on what to do. Otherwise, I think it is just wasted keystrokes posting how bad things "might" get when there is no way of knowing what will happen.


in the real world, you either plan or someone else plans for you. The "wasted" key strokes are fine, and that's my call on them. I actually do hope they are wasted, but you nor I can tell anyone with any certainty where this storm is going. Since 2cool covers all of the Texas coast and as far over as Florida, I think all of us need to do whatever puts us in our own personal comfort zone. I have gathered enough supplies, gas, and food to last me 10 days in the RV if it should come to it. If not, they will all be used in another month anyways. These storms are not anything to take lightly, considering the most valuable thing most of us ever own are our homes, and for most of is, our boats or RV's. I am lucky enough to be able to afford to stock up and not have any financial burden from it. Others aren't. For the vast majority, having to either evacuate or shelter in place is both expensive and unexpected. I had plans to be in Somerville starting on Thursday morning, for the Texas Rally, and others have similar plans that are being altered by this storm. Wherever it hits, people are going to die, be without power and neccesities, ect. Your comments are your opinion, but in my opinion, are in poor taste with bad timing.


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## Stuart (May 21, 2004)

When is the next CST update?


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## MustangOrange (Jul 26, 2005)

I believe it's 5 PM EST, so 4 PM for y'all in Texas (watching home from afar here in DC).


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## Tight Knot (Sep 8, 2004)

Rut Roh looks like were in the Bulls Eye,,,,,figures we just finished up the interior painting on our new old place. FYI-Hummingbird Festival has been cancelled for this weekend.
Tight Knot


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## yakfisher (Jul 23, 2005)

New update suggests a central coastline landfall on texas. I guess its time for the entire coast to get on the stick with preperations.

That being said, if anyone is pulling their boats in as far as Austin and need a spot to stow it for a couple/few days. I have some driveway room in a pretty safe neighborhood.


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## Fresh2Salt (May 21, 2004)

Tight Knot said:


> Rut Roh looks like were in the Bulls Eye,,,,,figures we just finished up the interior painting on our new old place. FYI-Hummingbird Festival has been cancelled for this weekend.
> Tight Knot


Hey Bob, if you and Adeline need to get away let me know. We'd be happy to have you guys stay with us in SA for a little visit.

We have mosquitoes just the same as you so it's almost like home. lol


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## Tight Knot (Sep 8, 2004)

Fresh2Salt said:


> Hey Bob, if you and Adeline need to get away let me know. We'd be happy to have you guys stay with us in SA for a little visit.
> 
> We have mosquitoes just the same as you so it's almost like home. lol


Thanks James....If it stays the course were headed east to Katy. I need to see my folks. We haven't been there since Christmas. I have had several 2coolers offer us housing which I am very grateful for. Do we need to do anything at the old yellow house?
T.K.


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## girlsfishtoo! (Jun 27, 2006)

*???*



surffan said:


> I'm in the same situation as you except mine is a 31ft travel trailer in Rockport. Do I bring it all the way back to Georgetown.
> 
> Us too - our 33" RV we just bought last July sits front row of Estes Flats. We need to decide this afternoon to make the drive from Humble to Rockport, pick it up and bring it back. Guess the boat will have to stay............


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## kdubya (Jun 27, 2005)

*This is a summary of a conference call today at 1:00 held by Jeff Lindner. *

Current update:
- The inner core is still very-well intact 
- There is some weak westerly shear and dry air near Yucatan Peninsula. Ike should be able to overcome this.
- Windfield has greatly expanded and will expand more in the GOM. This will be a "very very large hurricane in the Gulf"
- *Will be a large hurricane, still using Carla of 1961 as analog for size*.

Track
=====
- The models overnight had shifted WAY SW but *all 12z models shifted north.*
- Wants to see models "stick" for 24 hours before committing to them.
- HPC and NHC going with Euro model for guidance on track.
- Trough on West Coast has crossed the coast and is now being read by sounding launches for better handle on it. This may have contributed to this morning's model shift back north.
- The incoming trough is the driving factor on the ultimate track.
- Another upper air sampling mission will be flown tonight to be ingested in the models tomorrow, but we are now starting to see some clarity in them.
- Trough will erode the ridge over TX and allow more northerly pull by Fri-Sat timeframe.
- Pattern similar to Carla, difference is trough for Carla was deeper.
- Timing may speed up then slow down as Ike rounds SW corner of ridge, as hurricanes typically do.
- In the GOM, well established cyclones tend to track right on the model guidance/track, something to keep in mind. Also, it is September (not July) and troughs tend to erode ridges faster

Timeline
========
- If staying on current track, landfall probably after daylight on Sat AM
- TS winds out 170-220 miles from center; so early afternoon Friday winds will reach the coast.
- Evac timelines are closing quickly. Galveston County requires 36 hours prior to onset of TS winds. This means decision must be made Wed AM.
- Be prepared if in the cone for evacs from Corpus to Matagorda Bay to Galveston. Even Beaumont and Pt. Arthur may be included.
- All points on the Texas Coast, even Lake Charles LA, should be making the same plans right now (he cited Rita again)
- Wednesday is critical decision day

Watch model trends because the evac timeline is getting very tight to make decisions.
Gulf storms moving at decent speed have a tendency to track right of the forecasted path.

Kelly


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## treble damage (Sep 7, 2006)

This is very interesting. Thanks for posting it. Excuse my ignorance, but who is Jeff Lindner?


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## kdubya (Jun 27, 2005)

treble damage said:


> This is very interesting. Thanks for posting it. Excuse my ignorance, but who is Jeff Lindner?


Harris County Meteorologist w/Office of Emergency Mgmt/Harris County Flood Control.

Kelly


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## Im Headed South (Jun 28, 2006)

girlsfishtoo! said:


> surffan said:
> 
> 
> > I'm in the same situation as you except mine is a 31ft travel trailer in Rockport. Do I bring it all the way back to Georgetown.
> ...


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## Melon (Jun 1, 2004)

Thanks for the post Kelly.


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## Fresh2Salt (May 21, 2004)

Please go and unlock all the doors and windows to make things easier for the looters. lol

I may be headed down tomorrow to pick up my boat and make things more secure. I'll keep you posted.



Tight Knot said:


> Thanks James....If it stays the course were headed east to Katy. I need to see my folks. We haven't been there since Christmas. I have had several 2coolers offer us housing which I am very grateful for. Do we need to do anything at the old yellow house?
> T.K.


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## GunDog (Jun 6, 2006)

Argh, this is killing me. Go to POC, not go to POC. What to do, what to do.


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## wading_fool (May 3, 2005)

Fresh2Salt said:


> Please go and unlock all the doors and windows to make things easier for the looters. lol
> 
> I may be headed down tomorrow to pick up my boat and make things more secure. I'll keep you posted.


I am gonna go down and open the doors so the water flows thru unimpeded at the condo lol

Starting to get word out of Port A, looks like they are gonna ask to start moving RV's and high profile vehicles, boats and trailers off starting tomorrow and everyone off by Thursday if nothing changes.....Might drive down tonight so I am ready to leave in the morning instead of driving down tomorrow and then leaving late in the afternoon


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## capt. david (Dec 29, 2004)

aggie chick you best go to poc if your worried! asap


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## Fresh2Salt (May 21, 2004)

Can you bring me back 5lbs of table shrimp?

Seriously, if you need any help let me know. My house is good to go and my boat is at Chris'. Nothing more I can do but wait.



wading_fool said:


> I am gonna go down and open the doors so the water flows thru unimpeded at the condo lol
> 
> Starting to get word out of Port A, looks like they are gonna ask to start moving RV's and high profile vehicles, boats and trailers off starting tomorrow and everyone off by Thursday if nothing changes.....Might drive down tonight so I am ready to leave in the morning instead of driving down tomorrow and then leaving late in the afternoon


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## Fresh2Salt (May 21, 2004)

Aggiechick said:


> Argh, this is killing me. Go to POC, not go to POC. What to do, what to do.


If you can get away then better safe than sorry. It's not everyday we get to use a hurricane as an excuse to get away from work.


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## Mrschasintail (Dec 8, 2004)

Yes, go get it.


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## BlueWaveCapt (Jan 8, 2007)

Fresh2Salt said:


> If you can get away then better safe than sorry. It's not everyday we get to use a hurricane as an excuse to get away from work.


That's 1 positive side effect of all the sensationalistic (is that a word) news media. I've had 3 "hurricane" days this year and haven't felt a drop of rain. C'MON Houston news...get going!! Daddy wants Friday off!!


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## Stuart (May 21, 2004)

So, I wonder what the approach will be for most Houstonians? Hopefully it won't be a mass exodus like Rita. Wow, what a mess that was.


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## Mrschasintail (Dec 8, 2004)

Yeah, So does Mommy!!!


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## wading_fool (May 3, 2005)

Fresh2Salt said:


> Can you bring me back 5lbs of table shrimp?
> 
> Seriously, if you need any help let me know. My house is good to go and my boat is at Chris'. Nothing more I can do but wait.


According to the South Pass Jetty thats the plan as of now, I don't want to get up and drive down there then be in the middle of it trying to get off the island with everyone. If I go tonight I can load everything and then head out first thing in the morning


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## kdubya (Jun 27, 2005)

4PM UPDATE from National Hurricane Center


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## seattleman1969 (Jul 17, 2008)

Finally some rain relief for Central Tx! 

I hope all of you on the coast weather this well. Stay safe and drop a line if you need some place to stay in Austin. All it will cost you is a buddy fishing trip in the future and GPS Cords to your fav honey hole! (I know, I just sealed the deal for a no company weekend)


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## Rack Ranch (May 25, 2004)

http://www.stormpulse.com/

Another..


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## bzrk180 (Jan 7, 2008)

Looks like the Hill Country is going to get the rain it has needed.


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## redfish bayrat (Feb 17, 2006)

br1006 said:


> I guess I will wait 24 hours to decide if I need to go to Port A and batten down the hatches or not? I dont want to wait too long if it looks like it is heading that way and then get stuck in the traffic jam heading home but, I dont want to go do all the work if it is not necessary either!


My sister lives on the Island and her brother-in-law is an old time resident and on the council. She said they were calling for a voluntary evacuation to morrow morning and mandatory by 4 tomorrow afternoon.

Good luck on the traffic. If need be, I am heading out on Friday Morning after i prep. the house, mom's house, mother-in-law's house, and my school.


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## scoutskipper (Aug 11, 2005)

Latest track shure looks close to Rockport to San Antonio.


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## boat_money (May 21, 2004)

*frontal system...*



kdubya said:


> 4PM UPDATE from National Hurricane Center


notice the cone of uncertainty still has louisiana and mexico in it. we should kow a whole lot more in 24 hrs. meanwhile, goto this link to see what is steering ike...

http://www.wunderground.com/US/Region/US/pxFronts.html


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## GunDog (Jun 6, 2006)

They moved the projection slightly north again. Looks like I am going to POC.


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## austinag (Aug 13, 2004)

*POC*

Heading down tomorrow afternoon my self. I suggest a 2coolers Hurricane Party @ Josie's Wed Nite. I'm getting out of there Thursday, but may make an early morning wade first!


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## willydavenport (Jun 4, 2004)

this is a pretty cool site also. you can turn on the computer models in the upper right portion of the screen by clicking the circle button by "Forecast Models"

http://www.stormpulse.com/


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## fishdoc1 (May 22, 2004)

Yep I got to go down now and board the windows.


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## surffan (Oct 5, 2004)

boat_money said:


> notice the cone of uncertainty still has louisiana and mexico in it. we should kow a whole lot more in 24 hrs. meanwhile, goto this link to see what is steering ike...
> 
> http://www.wunderground.com/US/Region/US/pxFronts.html


Everyone should read the Jeff Masters Blog at that link.


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## BlueWaveCapt (Jan 8, 2007)

I'm not usually a person to fret over stuff like this&#8230;but these predictions (although still early) are looking worse for Galveston and Houston than the last 2-3 storms we've had "predicted" to hit us directly.



I know there are several factors still at play that could easily shift this storm in a more southern direction, but what I'm noticing is that the last 3 named Hurricanes that were predicted Galveston were predicted to be an almost direct hit (and hit hard). All of them shifted north and slammed into eastern TX and Louisiana. Hurricane Ike is (for now) as of 4:00 PM Central time is predicted to make land-fall South/SW of Galveston closer to the Corpus Christie area. 



The last 3 times we have had a storm "predicted" to hit us here in Galveston County they have shifted North from the expected "target land-fall area" and turned up to blow right by us. Now - I'm thinking a prediction of land-fall South/Southwest of Galveston (in my opinion) is more concerning than a prediction of a direct hit on Galveston County. If the pattern of predicted land-fall location and actual land-fall location continues&#8230;we could be in for one WILD weekend. Land-fall is expected soon after day-break on Saturday morning.


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## C-Mac369 (Jun 27, 2008)

Dont know if this has been posted yet but i got it in a e-mail today. once it all loads had lots of good/ cool stuff on it..........http://tropicwx.com/


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## Stuart (May 21, 2004)

Here is a cut and paste from the Jeff Masters Blog.

"Despite the fact that the center of Carla hit over 120 miles southwest of Houston, the hurricane drove a 15-foot storm surge into the bays along the south side of the city."


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## JOHNNY QUEST (Mar 6, 2006)

This morning at 6:00 they had it going south of corpus.. When i get home from work a little while ago its comming back up the shoreline a bit.. If that high pressure weakens anymore like it did today we are in for a wild ride for sure..

Tomorrows models will be different and I'm looking forward to seeing them..
All the models have a north shift friday about 2. if it happens at 11 instead oooohh crapppp... keep an eye on it between thursday 2pm and fri. 2.pm
An 11:00 swing or earlier is gunna be bad..

JMO. 
Randall


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## The Driver. (May 20, 2004)

As Melon posted earlier in this thread! Everyone needs to keep calm and stay tuned to the progress of the storm! The last storm that they predicted to hit Matty at 5 day's out was Rita! We all know where she hit. Typically storms tend to go east where they are predicting this early.


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## Profish00 (May 21, 2004)

Take this time to prepare. I just checked all my boards I acquired from Rita, radio, candles, lantern, beer, and water......lets hunker down.

Garage doors are the first to go.


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## cfish (May 21, 2008)

Is just so impressive to see so many offering help and thier homes to others. 
I always thought fisherman were good people. 2cool is the best.
Thank you !


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## Stuart (May 21, 2004)

Profish00 said:


> Take this time to prepare. I just checked all my boards I acquired from Rita, radio, candles, lantern, beer, and water......lets hunker down.
> 
> Garage doors are the first to go.


I just went to Lowes here in Lake Jackson to get some more ply-lox. Well, they don't have any there so I found some at Home Depot. A few folks getting plywood at both places. Yeah, if you have time now to prepare it would be better than waiting.


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## Harbormaster (May 26, 2000)

The Driver. said:


> As Melon posted earlier in this thread! Everyone needs to keep calm and stay tuned to the progress of the storm! The last storm that they predicted to hit Matty at 5 day's out was Rita! We all know where she hit. Typically storms tend to go east where they are predicting this early.


Ed Zachary Mike, pretty sure we're gonna get pounded by this one though! Rather get pounded by one with a female name! 

I'll call tomorrow!


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## Hevy Dee (May 26, 2004)

*Visable Sat*

Didn't take long for the eyewall to re-configure after it got into the GOM. The SSt and depth of the 26 degree isotherm in Ike's path look bad. He should become a very strong storm and hopefully will weaken as it nears our coast. The track of Carla and even the 1900 storm are similar, both were in early September. Hang on to your hats boys and girls. Best of luck to all. If anybody gets stuck evacuating from the South on hwy. 6 (was a parking lot during Rita), through Mo. City give me a call, and you can hang with us, if needed. - Hevy


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## hotfoot (Mar 22, 2008)

Headed for Seadrift 4am. Looks to be headed that way for sure.


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## kdubya (Jun 27, 2005)

Check this out. That is one bad arse looking storm. Watch the eye tighten up.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-rb.html

Kelly


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## Life Aquatic (Oct 24, 2006)

Ike is wobbling like an old table at a BBQ stand. Waiting til tomorrow to see if I need to bring the boat up to Austin.

Called down to Boat Stop in Flour Bluff. Harald told me the boat barn is rated for 140 mph wind as long as all the doors are down. Can't say I have complete confidence in that.


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## OxbowOutfitters (Feb 17, 2006)

This is gonna make 1 heck of a mess where ever it hits..h:

Myself n Doc Both Have Continued Edgucation in Port A ,set for tomorrow..
The Morons that have this all set up..wont cancell till Noon today ,if they Cancell at all..:help::help:
There tellin us that ((if the Beaches @ Corpus stay open))...We have to Go..***..Are they trying to Endanger lives for Monatary Value n Gain...
I smell a serious Law suit comin if they let it ride..


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## Stuart (May 21, 2004)

Life Aquatic said:


> Called down to Boat Stop in Flour Bluff. Harald told me the boat barn is rated for 140 mph wind as long as all the doors are down. Can't say I have complete confidence in that.


Yep, all it will take is one "***** in the armor" and it will all start peeling off.


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## Tex4x4Fsh (Jul 21, 2006)

any idea what the storm affects might be in Wharton if this Ike hits Rockport or Port OConner?? a family members house is down there while shes in a nursing home in houston.... trying to decide if we need to run down to board it up....


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## surffan (Oct 5, 2004)

I'm headed down to Rockport this afternoon to maybe move my trailer out. I will spend the night and make the decision Thrusday AM early after looking at the models/forecast. Moved out of Port A for Rita and of course she went elsewhere so I will wait till Thursday morning to make the call but don't want to get stuck in too much traffic either.

My other problem is that we have friends with a house in Rockport. They are in Arizona and can't get back. House is not set up "to board up" and I will not have time to do a from scratch job. Any tips short of "boarding up" (other than moving lawn furniture etc.) to prep the house?


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## Bobby (May 21, 2004)

surffan said:


> I'm headed down to Rockport this afternoon to maybe move my trailer out. I will spend the night and make the decision Thrusday AM early after looking at the models/forecast. Moved out of Port A for Rita and of course she went elsewhere so I will wait till Thursday morning to make the call but don't want to get stuck in too much traffic either.
> 
> My other problem is that we have friends with a house in Rockport. They are in Arizona and can't get back. House is not set up "to board up" and I will not have time to do a from scratch job. *Any tips short of "boarding up" (other than moving lawn furniture etc.) to prep the house?*


Tie down and put inside anything that is outside that could become a UFO.


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## Tight Knot (Sep 8, 2004)

City of Rockport has issued a mandatory evacuation....which way to go. I think were headed south.
Tight Knot


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## Stuart (May 21, 2004)

Tight Knot said:


> City of Rockport has issued a mandatory evacuation....which way to go. I think were headed south.
> Tight Knot


Yeah, I think I would head south too. Eveything so far has been trending the other direction.


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## Fresh2Salt (May 21, 2004)

Tight Knot said:


> City of Rockport has issued a mandatory evacuation....which way to go. I think were headed south.
> Tight Knot


I'd have a back up plan just in case. The offer is open ended, if you need another place to run then my house is available.


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## Stuart (May 21, 2004)

Inlaws neighbor just called and said I-10 west @ Hwy 36 is already pretty jammed up.


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## TxDuSlayer (Jun 24, 2006)

does anyone know if ike has started to turn north?


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## Stuart (May 21, 2004)

TxDuSlayer said:


> does anyone know if ike has started to turn north?


www.stormpulse.com just upadted at 1:00 pm CST. Path looks unchanged from previous one from what I can tell.


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## IMBIT2 (Aug 12, 2005)

GFDL has moved to galveston area. Not good.


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## Hal01 (Jul 18, 2005)

txjoker said:


> Are we still dooming and glooming and having "bad feelings" about this storm? The Ike frenzy seems to have disappeared from the board in the last 24 hours! LMAO


Are you still "LMAO"?


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## boxhead (Apr 6, 2007)

Well I feel blessed to be able to be here today. I have been at work since Thursday evening. Myself and several other Deputies from Brazoria County held up at the Sheriff's Office. This Ike Fellow was an impressive character! The wind, rain and noise was something out of the movies. My heart goes out to all that have lost. And wish that the rebuilding go swift and easy for all. As I type, the winds are staying around 40mph and little rain. I know there are a few people left that are not quite familiar with Ike. Spit in his eye and tell him "this is Texas and he gonna have to bring more than what he had to run us down." He may have messed up the fishing and huntin around here for a little while but Thank God In Heaven that we still have our family and friends and remember the fish will bite tomorrow! God Bless All!


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