# Oil Heading To $20 A Barrel?



## Hullahopper (May 24, 2004)

Man oh man, I sure hope they are wrong!

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mark...o-dollar20/ar-BBnGHUU?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=up97dhp


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## elkhunter49 (Jun 7, 2004)

I hope the predictions are wrong as well but I'm sure we haven't bottomed out yet! It's getting tougher by the day. hwell:


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## 24Buds (Dec 5, 2008)

Scary. I read a few months back about predictions of $25. That will hurt bad for everyone in the industry. Houston is the energy capital. I hope it doesn't get that low.


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## V-Bottom (Jun 16, 2007)

It's past time for O&G to bite the bullet unlike many MILLIONS of consumers had to do when the cost of gas was high. What goes around comes around as they say


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## Its Catchy (Apr 10, 2014)

V-Bottom said:


> It's past time for O&G to bite the bullet unlike many MILLIONS of consumers had to do when the cost of gas was high. What goes around comes around as they say


Those of us in O&G have no problem "biting the bullet". But being the energy capital of the world the effect on Houston will reach far past those of us who work in the industry.

As this depression deepens you can expect:

Property values to suffer as more and more people feel the squeeze.
Restaurants, diners, bars will feel the pinch as well.
Auto and boat dealerships
The state coffers will have billions of dollars less in tax revenue so schools will have less revenue.

So enjoy your cheap gasoline


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## Part Timer (Jul 2, 2012)

V-Bottom said:


> It's past time for O&G to bite the bullet unlike many MILLIONS of consumers had to do when the cost of gas was high. What goes around comes around as they say


Hahahahaha......good joke. You almost had me hooked. Then I thought to myself, no one could be that foolish. You rascal you.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk


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## fishingcacher (Mar 29, 2008)

I suspect Goldman is going long on oil.


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## nicklas1976 (Apr 23, 2013)

The percentage of people that directly work in the O&G industry in Houston is huge. The percentage of people that indirectly prosper from the O&G industry in Houston is astronomical. For instance fast food, fine dining, insurance companies, single family and multifamily housing, automobile industry, department storesâ€¦â€¦â€¦.. should I keep going?


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## jmreeves624 (May 27, 2014)

V-Bottom said:


> It's past time for O&G to bite the bullet unlike many MILLIONS of consumers had to do when the cost of gas was high. What goes around comes around as they say


Yeah whatever. The economy of houston and most of Texas is driven by the oil industry. Those that aren't in it enjoy the benefits of it, more jobs growing economy higher pay. So when you find yourself with less wealth to pay for that cheap gas you will know why.

Besides something is not right cause as low as oil is power barrel gas isn't as low as it should be. Plus other petroleum products are still high. I went to get the oil changed in my truck and it was $20 higher than last time. The guy said that the cost of a quart of oil was higher, wow. I went to auto zone to by the oil to change myself, even buying the less expensive brand it was still more to change myself than it was at firestone 6 months ago


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## stargazer (May 24, 2004)

Yep me also, 5th Layoff is today here at the office.


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## Tortuga (May 21, 2004)

Smells like the Texas shale game is gonna take the main hit here...

As noted..been here..done this...more than a few times. Know lotsa
folks that got rich at $8.00 many moons ago...

Hang on, Boys...just put off that new car a year or two...


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## jmreeves624 (May 27, 2014)

If you read the article more closely, it really isn't predicting 20 power barrel, but that is the bottom that US shale can handle. 
It is hard right now out there now at 35 per, couldn't imagine if it was 20. I am going to make 45k less this year than last, and next year doesn't look any better. I think I have already been biting the bullet for a year now


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## fishingcacher (Mar 29, 2008)

When oil went below $10/bbl the Houston economy diversified but maybe when it went over $100 perhaps we lost the diversity.


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## Flapp'n Shad (Sep 29, 2015)

I would rather pay the high gas prices and keep a ton of folks working than to pay a lower price and have a bunch of people laid off.....just my 2 cents.


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## Jolly Roger (May 21, 2004)

those **** traders manipulating the market.........


sucks for sure, going to be a huge number of layoffs after the first of the year and all of Texas will feel it in a few months if the price does not start to climb. I am seeing credible predictions both up and down on oil. So feel we are close to the bottom. There are some large players in other countries that can not allow and good chance will not allow the price to fall much more.


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## Newbomb Turk (Sep 16, 2005)

This will be obama's chance to say the FED needs to raise gas tax.


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## Hatfield (Dec 10, 2015)

V-Bottom said:


> It's past time for O&G to bite the bullet unlike many MILLIONS of consumers had to do when the cost of gas was high. What goes around comes around as they say


Wow, I cannot even tell you how ignorant this statement is. You think someone comes along and marks the price up just to make a few more bucks? Gas prices follow commodity price. Commodity price follows production costs and S&D. Shale oil is more expensive to produce but it is domestic which gives us an additional benefit of more jobs. OPEC can sell us oil cheaper but in the long run that doesn't benefit us as a country. Your higher gas prices mean more americans are employed. I guarantee you that there are more people who would rather have a job than cheap gas prices.


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## Ernest (May 21, 2004)

While the layoffs by Big Oil are certainly significant and will hurt Houston and Texas, the bigger picture is the reduction in capital spending. That is the critical factor. The reductions in capital spending have/will lead to significant layoff's in not only numerous O&G related industries but beyond. All the way down to car dealers and the corner store.


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## Mad Mike (Dec 28, 2005)

V-Bottom said:


> It's past time for O&G to bite the bullet unlike many MILLIONS of consumers had to do when the cost of gas was high. What goes around comes around as they say


Every village has an idiot, and you are definitely 2-cools.


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## fishinguy (Aug 5, 2004)

V-Bottom said:


> It's past time for O&G to bite the bullet unlike many MILLIONS of consumers had to do when the cost of gas was high. What goes around comes around as they say


I'm not sure if you realize the overflow of the problem. The situation effects much more than just O&G. Everyone from your local realtor to the Walmart employee is effected by oil prices.

However if you are living at the bottom of society and a taker from society I doubt the impact will be very significant, enjoy your cheap gas, it should reduce the amount it will cost to haul free firewood.


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## batmaninja (Jul 15, 2010)

Thank you Muhamed Obama and your Iran deal. 

Supply and demand here folks. Demand is about the same but supply has been increasing with the NA shale play, OPEC increasing output and Iran flooding the market with thousands of barrels of oil it has been sitting on. 

Silver lining - ISIS is making less when they sell their oil


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## DUTY FIRST (Jun 23, 2012)

V-Bottom said:


> It's past time for O&G to bite the bullet unlike many MILLIONS of consumers had to do when the cost of gas was high. What goes around comes around as they say


..........


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## Timemachine (Nov 25, 2008)

Part Timer said:


> Hahahahaha......good joke. You almost had me hooked. Then I thought to myself, no one could be that foolish. You rascal you.
> 
> Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk


I know Right??!!! Had me going too. Then I remembered how smart the 2Cool family is and knew he was kidding. I mean a city of 4 million people about to collapse and he can make a joke. Very upbeat!!


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## pocjetty (Sep 12, 2014)

V-Bottom said:


> It's past time for O&G to bite the bullet unlike many MILLIONS of consumers had to do when the cost of gas was high. What goes around comes around as they say


Stupidity is hereditary, ignorance is voluntary. And you've ALWAYS got your hand up.


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## fishingcacher (Mar 29, 2008)

This is a worse case scenario which probably means it will not happen. In fact Goldman is saying oil will go back up to $45 which is more likely.


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## fishinguy (Aug 5, 2004)

fishingcacher said:


> This is a worse case scenario which probably means it will not happen. In fact Goldman is saying oil will go back up to $45 which is more likely.


I agree that it will move to around $45. It would be nice if if would stabilize at or around $50.


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## txbigred (Aug 7, 2007)

pocjetty said:


> Stupidity is hereditary, ignorance is voluntary. And you've ALWAYS got your hand OUT .


There, fixed it for ya...


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## stargazer (May 24, 2004)

fishinguy said:


> I agree that it will move to around $45. It would be nice if if would stabilize at or around $50.


Boy, I sure hope you are right, bunch of folks out of work for the Holidazs really stinks.
I also wouldnt mind paying a little more for Gas as long as it keeps folks employed and the dollars stay here in America.


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## bg (May 21, 2004)

fishinguy said:


> I agree that it will move to around $45. It would be nice if if would stabilize at or around $50.


I'd really rather see $65 - $70, it makes Eagle Ford a lot more viable. South Texas is really suffering right now.


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## Bobby (May 21, 2004)

Houston is going to be a ghost town in how long?? A week, year, or 10 years??


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## Chuck06R1 (Apr 7, 2015)

The outflow portion of my account loves the lower prices at the pump but the side that understands the income portion cringes every time the price drops.


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## Its Catchy (Apr 10, 2014)

fishingcacher said:


> This is a worse case scenario which probably means it will not happen. In fact Goldman is saying oil will go back up to $45 which is more likely.


45 dollar oil just means the oil companies are losing less money. I don't know of many if any of the shale producers can make money at 45.00.

2016 is going to be a disaster for the oilpatch. We are still producing 9.2 million barrels a day domestically, Iran is going to have the sanctions lifted and the rest of the oil producing nations are just pumping more to make up for the lost revenue.

In 2015 we started seeing layoffs and cutbacks and 2016 we will start to see bankruptcies.


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## BullyARed (Jun 19, 2010)

I don't work in O&G but I am ok with gas at $2.50 to $2.75/gal if it can keep more people stay employed.


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## Prizepig (Jul 13, 2012)

*Hopeful*

The lift on the ban of oil exports will help. I, like the rest of you with some knowledge on the subject, wouldn't mind paying $3 or $4 at the pump and still have a job rather than $1.59 at the pump with no paycheck.


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## fishinguy (Aug 5, 2004)

bg said:


> I'd really rather see $65 - $70, it makes Eagle Ford a lot more viable. South Texas is really suffering right now.


I don't think we will see 65-70 in the next 12 months without any MAJOR event that causes disruption. Even if OPEC scales back production it will not be enough to drive the price back up. All that hoopla about competing with the Asian market for oil turned out to be smoke when their market went over the cliff. Their inflated demand are a big piece to the current state of the industry. $50 seems to be the metric that the bigger companies are looking for to start or shelve projects.


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## agonzales1981 (Jun 12, 2008)

BullyARed said:


> I don't work in O&G but I am ok with gas at $2.50 to $2.75/gal if it can keep more people stay employed.


Agree. I wish there was a happy medium....


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## Zeitgeist (Nov 10, 2011)

Articles like the one the OP posted are actually good for the markets because they are usually contrarian in nature. When you start seeing cover stories from the mainstreram media, usually the exact opposite happens.


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## fishingcacher (Mar 29, 2008)

Zeitgeist said:


> Articles like the one the OP posted are actually good for the markets because they are usually contrarian in nature. When you start seeing cover stories from the mainstreram media, usually the exact opposite happens.


Agreed. They said oil was headed for the 30's and then it went to the 50's.


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## iamatt (Aug 28, 2012)

I don't know about headlines but it is very rough for my family and extended family. The kids already know its going to be a skinny Christmas. Those seismic companies that own vessels are going to be in big trouble.

Sent from my A0001 using Tapatalk


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## TexasVines (Jan 5, 2012)

Newbomb Turk said:


> This will be obama's chance to say the FED needs to raise gas tax.


I would not mind if Texas (or other states on their own) put a raise on while the price of actual gasoline is below say $2.25 at the pump and then it can ALL be sent to fixing roads and catching up/getting ahead on road building especially while the rest of the Texas economy slows and people stop moving here so fast (stop telling them there are jobs here RICK (yea I know he is gone, but he should have shut up when he was here))

the constructions jobs would benefit some oil field workers and truck drivers especially and those people keeping working benefits all the other businesses and it even makes demand for asphalt and other oil secondary products that generally go to rock bottom in price when gas goes down in price

as for the feds raising the tax no way no how that is just more money flushed down the toilet and sent to blm and other losers

government needs to be smarter about things you tax a bit higher when things are "on fire" to slow it down a bit and to put away for the "rainy day" and you tax a bit higher when things like fuel go way down in price because you are having consumers still benefit from gas being over a dollar to a dollar fifty cheaper at the pump even with a bit more tax and then when the "rainy day" comes you dig into that saved up war chest to build infrastructure when prices are low

instead government is stupid and does it totally backwards they lower taxes when things are good or keep taxes the same and let things get too hot and explode and then when things are bad they have spent every dime already and they have no war chest left from the good times and then they go into debt to build infrastructure to try and stimulate the economy and worst of all when things pick back up they never pay off that debt

Texas should have cranked up the cost for registrations on OUT OF STATE cars to $500 dollars when things were good and and cranked up the cost of changing over an out of state drivers license to $1,000 and cranked up the cost of a power meter, water meter, home permit ect especially on cheap multifamily housing to make it more expensive for the uneducated "Texas has a job for me and my GED" types and for the "Texas is cheap I think I will move there and vote for a fat lesbian to turn the place blue and expensive" california types when times were good to either make them pay a bit or "buy in" to their coming here and then when times are bad and they are fleeing in droves to ruin the next place they will not be leaving us with thousands of vacant apartments and they will be leaving cash behind we can repair their damage with and keep the economy somewhat stable


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## Jolly Roger (May 21, 2004)

TexasVines said:


> I would not mind if Texas (or other states on their own) put a raise on while the price of actual gasoline is below say $2.25 at the pump and then it can ALL be sent to fixing roads and catching up/getting ahead on road building especially while the rest of the Texas economy slows and people stop moving here so fast (stop telling them there are jobs here RICK (yea I know he is gone, but he should have shut up when he was here))
> 
> the constructions jobs would benefit some oil field workers and truck drivers especially and those people keeping working benefits all the other businesses and it even makes demand for asphalt and other oil secondary products that generally go to rock bottom in price when gas goes down in price
> 
> ...


government ain't that smart


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## boom! (Jul 10, 2004)

Jolly Roger said:


> government ain't that smart


Nor will they move taxes back down when oil hits 100$.


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## MarkU (Jun 3, 2013)

Now would be the time for the Fed to add to our strategic reserve.


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## rynochop (Aug 28, 2006)

boom! said:


> Nor will they move taxes back down when oil hits 100$.


Exactly..that's kinda the kicker, which everyone knows it will. Lowering the tax went over like a turd in the punch bowl when gas was sky high a few years ago


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## rynochop (Aug 28, 2006)

MarkU said:


> Now would be the time for the Fed to add to our strategic reserve.


Isnt It full already? I don't know


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## bassguitarman (Nov 29, 2005)

MarkU said:


> Now would be the time for the Fed to add to our strategic reserve.


Nope, just the opposite:

The U.S. plans to sell millions of barrels of crude oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve from 2018 until 2025:

October 27, 2015

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...sell-down-strategic-oil-reserve-to-raise-cash


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## Tortuga (May 21, 2004)

rynochop said:


> Isnt It full already? I don't know


Purty near...capacity 715 million bbls...today 696 million bbls Dec 15th


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## TexasVines (Jan 5, 2012)

I agree government is not that smart and the federal reserve is a prime example of that

it was "not popular" with leftist loons to tap it when prices were high because they thought they had the gasoline engine and the "petro economy" on their death bed and they wanted the price to stay high even though lil'gravie-onit and la-freakin'ya and their 80s era 4 door pile of American garbage on dubs were having to spend their EBT on $4.50 a gallon gas to do their "ridin' " and there were others that wanted it around for "times of war" which is not really all that important now that we have the infrastructure in place to tap massive fields of oil rapidly and then when prices are down like now you fill the stupid thing back up

instead the obongo did not tap it when prices were high and now that prices are at near all time lows for the last few decades the obongo is wanting to tap it and lower prices more and of course we have wells shut in and fields not under development and if we fill the stupid thing it will be at higher prices and if we do have a "strategic emergency" it will take longer to crank back up VS when prices were high and the industry was rolling 

it is not like the thing will get us through years of war it gets us through probably 9 months and that would be with rationing and when oil is rolling that is just enough time to get in there and develop/open up American fields.....when the industry is shut down it takes at least twice that long if not 3X that long to get in there and get producing 

again obongo the economic idiot and strategic buffoon of the world


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## bg (May 21, 2004)

fishinguy said:


> I don't think we will see 65-70 in the next 12 months without any MAJOR event that causes disruption. Even if OPEC scales back production it will not be enough to drive the price back up. All that hoopla about competing with the Asian market for oil turned out to be smoke when their market went over the cliff. Their inflated demand are a big piece to the current state of the industry. $50 seems to be the metric that the bigger companies are looking for to start or shelve projects.


I know that and it's going to destroy the improved economy that was beginning in South Texas. Several service companies are gone, there is a lot of vacant office warehouse space in Alice, trucking traffic is a fraction of what it was, there are no more "Help Wanted" signs hanging on the fences and all the drilling platforms are parked in the yard with the portable offices. I know there's still some construction going on down there for pipelines and refineries because eventually the price will go back up and the infrastructure will be needed to produce those fields but I don't think the construction work will be near enough to absorb all the lost jobs down there.

Houston is a little better off in terms of diversification but most of the diversified business is actually supported by O&G so if there isn't some upward movement soon, we're going to feel it more here than we already are. Real estate is definitely showing signs of the slowdown now, there is a LOT of inventory right now and not much selling compared to this summer.


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## mas360 (Nov 21, 2006)

Did you all receive a nice 5 to 10 percent increase in tax appraisal on your property for 2015? It does not look like this oil crisis is going to negatively affect property value....


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## BullyARed (Jun 19, 2010)

I don't mind to pay $3/gal if my stocks gain 10% and all the folks in O&G get their jobs back.


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## 24Buds (Dec 5, 2008)

Bobby said:


> Houston is going to be a ghost town in how long?? A week, year, or 10 years??


Never? I feel for the O&G folks. I do. My industry lost $ when the Shell's of the world made record profits. Now we are. I never want someone to get laid off, but it will cycle back up again. The true winner is Mattress Mack!:headknock


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## Tortuga (May 21, 2004)

24Buds said:


> Never? I feel for the O&G folks. I do. My industry lost $ when the Shell's of the world made record profits. Now we are. I never want someone to get laid off, but it will cycle back up again.* The true winner is Mattress Mack!*:headknock


Plumb forgot about that.. He can stop sweating.. Chances of black gold hitting $85/bbl in the next two weeks are slim and none...

The man is an advertising GENIUS, I'm tellin' ya !!!!......:rotfl:


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## V-Bottom (Jun 16, 2007)

California gas stations gouged the consumers a total of $10.1B from Feb.2015 until this November. Out of that amount the FEDS got their $2B. No pity here for O&G


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## txjustin (Jun 3, 2009)

V-Bottom said:


> California gas stations gouged the consumers a total of $10.1B from Feb.2015 until this November. Out of that amount the FEDS got their $2B. No pity here for O&G


The next time you get on here and beg someone for some free hog meat or something else I'll be sure to chime in and remind them of your ignorant comments. You have zero understanding of the oil and gas industry and how it effects gas prices.


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## Friendswoodmatt (Feb 22, 2005)

V-bottom -- my suggestion is this
Better to keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool-- then to open it and remove all doubt.


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## budreau (Jun 21, 2009)

Friendswoodmatt said:


> V-bottom -- my suggestion is this
> Better to keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool-- then to open it and remove all doubt.


that ship has sailed


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## Prizepig (Jul 13, 2012)

*Wow*



V-Bottom said:


> California gas stations gouged the consumers a total of $10.1B from Feb.2015 until this November. Out of that amount the FEDS got their $2B. No pity here for O&G


Translation=I don't care if you lost your job when o&g tanked, and you and your wife had to take on 2 or 3 part time jobs to put food on your table for your family, and you are months behind on your mortgage, and so on and so forth. Merry Christmas to you V-bottom, hope you are all warm and fuzzy inside on Christmas Day while other honest, hard-working Americans struggle to make ends meet.........


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## teckersley (May 25, 2004)

Here is my take on it. For the record, I hope I am wrong. I do not work for an "oil" company but used to and have many of them as customers. Unfortunately, I don't think we have seen the bottom or the worst of the mess. A lot of companies and countries have to keep producing to make their debt payments. Many of them are too leveraged. Additionally, the Saudi's have staying power and plenty of cash reserves to make sure that they keep their market share and will continue to produce. The Saudi's long term goal is to knock out several of the incremental production companies and technologies to maintain/regain market share and ultimately control. The only way to do this is to keep it low enough for long enough to drive them out of business. Is $35 the bottom, $30?, $20, who knows where it happens but I don't think we see any significant reprieve until the highly leveraged companies are gone, these new technologies are too expensive to continue, and the Saudi's decide to cut. Things are ok for now because many of them have longer term hedges on but once we hit the point in time of no more high price hedges, that's when it gets real.


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## grman (Jul 2, 2010)

Oil is a traded commodity. For years futures traders have predicted that China what will drive the supply/demand cycle for oil. Car for every Chinese family etc. Pretty obvious that will not happen for the foreseeable future. As long term contracts come due - someone is making mega bucks. 


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## fishingcacher (Mar 29, 2008)

I also heard that with the price being low exporting oil from the USA is not economical.


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## redexpress (Apr 5, 2010)

As I understand it, the issue is the very light crude/condensate coming out of Eagle Ford. Our refineries are configured for heavy/sour crude, although some can run light sweet and more are being modified for it. There is not much local demand for it yet. 
This is a blog I read and they usually explain it well:
http://rbnenergy.com/walk-this-way-...elines-to-corpus-and-the-refineries-they-feed


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## redexpress (Apr 5, 2010)

teckersley said:


> Here is my take on it. For the record, I hope I am wrong. I do not work for an "oil" company but used to and have many of them as customers. Unfortunately, I don't think we have seen the bottom or the worst of the mess. A lot of companies and countries have to keep producing to make their debt payments. Many of them are too leveraged. Additionally, the Saudi's have staying power and plenty of cash reserves to make sure that they keep their market share and will continue to produce. The Saudi's long term goal is to knock out several of the incremental production companies and technologies to maintain/regain market share and ultimately control. The only way to do this is to keep it low enough for long enough to drive them out of business. Is $35 the bottom, $30?, $20, who knows where it happens but I don't think we see any significant reprieve until the highly leveraged companies are gone, these new technologies are too expensive to continue, and the Saudi's decide to cut. Things are ok for now because many of them have longer term hedges on but once we hit the point in time of no more high price hedges, that's when it gets real.


 I'm not too sure about the Saudi's bank reserves. I read somewhere they give their citizens so many benefits that they don't have much in the bank.
They have to pump oil or cut back on the welfare. The royal family is scared to do that.


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## 4x4tx (Nov 13, 2005)

V-Bottom said:


> It's past time for O&G to bite the bullet unlike many MILLIONS of consumers had to do when the cost of gas was high. What goes around comes around as they say


Do you have similar feelings toward any business that makes money? Good lord

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## 4x4tx (Nov 13, 2005)

Jolly Roger said:


> those **** traders manipulating the market.........
> 
> sucks for sure, going to be a huge number of layoffs after the first of the year and all of Texas will feel it in a few months if the price does not start to climb. I am seeing credible predictions both up and down on oil. So feel we are close to the bottom. There are some large players in other countries that can not allow and good chance will not allow the price to fall much more.


More like those producers who won't stop drilling

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## 4x4tx (Nov 13, 2005)

Ernest said:


> While the layoffs by Big Oil are certainly significant and will hurt Houston and Texas, the bigger picture is the reduction in capital spending. That is the critical factor. The reductions in capital spending have/will lead to significant layoff's in not only numerous O&G related industries but beyond. All the way down to car dealers and the corner store.


Ding ding ding but big oil is so bad....big oil doesn't make money at anything below 55-60 bbl

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## Bayscout22 (Aug 9, 2007)

V-Bottom said:


> It's past time for O&G to bite the bullet unlike many MILLIONS of consumers had to do when the cost of gas was high. What goes around comes around as they say


Says the retired guy who is only worried about himself. Sign me up for $5 / gallon. And I'm not in O&G.


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## grman (Jul 2, 2010)

Real problem waiting to bite all of us - taxes on oil and gas profits are what run this state and every county and city in it. Can someone say layoffs - police, fireman etc. 


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## BayouBonsaiMan (Apr 14, 2009)

I don't understand why this is not a issue with politicos, it was when china was dumping steel. How is it alright that Saudi's were happy to take our money at +100$ a barrel but now that we have developed other sources they can drive the price to mid thirties knowing we are out of business at that level.
The world will go broke with 30$ oil IMO too many small countries need oil revenue, China needs them buying stuff. Wall st banks need business with
oil companies, and can't afford them shutting down. They are the only ones that 
could reduce production. What if we told them to reduce production or we are pulling all our Navy and Air Force out of middle east so the can defend their own oil. I guess if your from New York you are happy for cheap gas!
Not Me! I think its BS


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## fouL-n-fin (Jan 16, 2011)

I don't want 5$ a gallon but filling my dmax up with 32 gallons of diesel for 58$ doesn't seem right. I left oil field in April before it got real bad and a lot of my buddies didn't have a back up like I do. Sucks to see their families hurting around the holidays. Is there a number where everyone can have their cake and eat it too? 


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## Rubberback (Sep 9, 2008)

Just get the price right. Don't rip the consumer off but make a living.


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## donf (Aug 8, 2005)

Our O &G industry , and all the supporting industries, steel, , construction, rope, soap , dope, labor and construction, are suffering in a big way, I've been in this sector for 40 years, and I've never seen it this bad. Ever. 
We are being butt raped by a guy who wears a robe and a turban , far far away. 
It's called" market share "!!!!!


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## jaime1982 (Aug 25, 2009)

Bayscout22 said:


> Says the retired guy who is only worried about himself. Sign me up for $5 / gallon. And I'm not in O&G.


5$/gln no thanks!! and Im in the refining side.


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## MikeV (Jun 5, 2006)

V-Bottom said:


> It's past time for O&G to bite the bullet unlike many MILLIONS of consumers had to do when the cost of gas was high. What goes around comes around as they say


You are 69. Have you been clueless your entire life or has it come on as you have aged?


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## TexasVines (Jan 5, 2012)

BayouBonsaiMan said:


> I don't understand why this is not a issue with politicos, it was when china was dumping steel. How is it alright that Saudi's were happy to take our money at +100$ a barrel but now that we have developed other sources they can drive the price to mid thirties knowing we are out of business at that level.
> The world will go broke with 30$ oil IMO too many small countries need oil revenue, China needs them buying stuff. Wall st banks need business with
> oil companies, and can't afford them shutting down. They are the only ones that
> could reduce production. What if we told them to reduce production or we are pulling all our Navy and Air Force out of middle east so the can defend their own oil. I guess if your from New York you are happy for cheap gas!
> Not Me! I think its BS


the fungibility of oil makes a "dumping case" impossible to win and of no meaning for the USA

1.the USa actually does not get a great deal of oil from the middle east we get most of it from Canada and Mexico and South America

2. more importantly if the USA said they were blocking middle east or opec oil because it was being dumped at "below market rates" well that oil would just go somewhere else and the oil that was non-opec that was going somewhere else would come to the USA

now there are grades of crude and that matters to refiners, but that would get worked out in sort order and the price would go back to being what it is

3. with a steel mill you actually have to have the mill and the raw materials and while a steel mill is not a huge challenge to build or operate to a degree building one and operating one simply to sell at a very low cost is not sensible which gets us to the last point

4. "dumping cases" are actually for selling BELOW COST OF PRODUCTION not for selling below what the USA can profitably produce for so for chinese steel one can look at the world cost of raw goods (commodity prices) and the cost of electricity (not really hard to calculate even for a foreign country when mass scale electricity is generally coal or natural gas that are commodities) and an average labor rate in that country and figure cost of production.....then when it is CLEARLY evident that steel or any other product is being sold BELOW that cost of production you have a dumping case

in the case of middle east/opec oil it can be produced VERY CHEAPLY and STILL BE PROFITABLE which means it is not being "dumped" at below the cost of production and thus there is no dumping case

which back to steel countries first have to start with the raw goods to make steel (most do not have that in abundance like oil) then they have to have the infrastructure to mine it and move it to a mill and then they need the energy for the mill and the skilled labor to run the mill.....most places do not have all or most of those components in place to start producing cheaply

and in the case of china where they still import some of the needed components and needed energy they have the MASSIVE DEMAND in place to use up most of their production and it is only in times of overall over supply that they can briefly dump into the USA and elsewhere to hurt our industry and in times when supply is tight they can again dump briefly to hurt profits and limit ability to expand the industry and modernize it so they punch when prices are down and when prices are up

with oil it is harder to punch when prices are up because of actual real demand because there is a limit to what is being produced and when the USA finally got it rolling and world demand dropped some the middle east and opec did not close the taps like in the past they kept them open to keep the market share

with steel the chinese will cut domestic allocations of steel even when needed (because that is what chicom centrally planned economies do to their markets) and they will dump steel on the USA even though they could use it there to limit expansion and modernization of the US industry....opec/middle east did not have that option with oil because there is real demand and that demand was OUTSIDE their borders and outside their control and thus if they have no internal demand to cut allocations to to hurt US production like with steel


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## MikeV (Jun 5, 2006)

mas360 said:


> Did you all receive a nice 5 to 10 percent increase in tax appraisal on your property for 2015? It does not look like this oil crisis is going to negatively affect property value....


lol nothing does I don't think.


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## Prizepig (Jul 13, 2012)

jaime1982 said:


> 5$/gln no thanks!! and Im in the refining side.


And your profits are determined by the crack spread.........


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## fishingcacher (Mar 29, 2008)

redexpress said:


> As I understand it, the issue is the very light crude/condensate coming out of Eagle Ford. Our refineries are configured for heavy/sour crude, although some can run light sweet and more are being modified for it. There is not much local demand for it yet.
> This is a blog I read and they usually explain it well:
> http://rbnenergy.com/walk-this-way-...elines-to-corpus-and-the-refineries-they-feed


If a company has one distillation column they can use it as a feed prep unit to process the stuff to make petrochemicals like ethylene and heavier.


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## Its Catchy (Apr 10, 2014)

A few things that will come into play and keep downward price pressure on crude.

Releasing the sanctions in Iran

The Fracklog of over 5,000 wells in U.S. that have been drilled but are "just waiting" for a price point to complete the wells. 

Chinese economy. The demand seems to have reached a plateau and their economy has been shrinking.

It all points to a very, very tough 2016 for O&G


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## jaime1982 (Aug 25, 2009)

Prizepig said:


> And your profits are determined by the crack spread.........


Cmmon man, Ive been doing this for 10 years, I know that. There is much more to our spread than retail gas prices.


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## reb (Aug 12, 2005)

It's back to supply and demand pricingâ€¦the speculators with money left the market (15-20 cent/gal changes overnight) and overall demand worldwide is down.


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## Jolly Roger (May 21, 2004)

reb said:


> It's back to supply and demand pricingâ€¦the speculators with money left the market (15-20 cent/gal changes overnight) and overall demand worldwide is down.


It has always been supply and demand pricing.

Speculators do not care what way the price is going, people are to ignorant to figure this out. Everyone wants to blame someone, so when the price of oil is high they stupidly blame traders/speculators like sheep because the truth is much more complex and to hard for Avg Joe to understand. Speculators like volatility, not one way movement. They can make just as much money when the price is going down compared when the price is going up. In fact usually make more money on the way down because the movements tend to be larger.....

Oil is a world wide commodity, it is traded 24 hours and day. The price difference you see from overnight are coming from the markets around the world.

Will also point out that when Crude oil was 4 time higher price then it is now, gasoline was not 4 times higher then it is now. The price of gasoline is not liner with the price of crude oil.


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## INTOTHEBLUE (Jun 21, 2011)

I like how Goldman was the one who backed Ceona. Another company who shut it's doors. I know a few people that worked there.

http://www.ceona-offshore.com/en/about-us/our-story.html

As for V-bottom. I sure do hope you have a Merry Christmas. I would like to give you a very warm go **** yourself this holiday season.


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## fishingcacher (Mar 29, 2008)

I was surprised to see gasoline at $1.60/gallon today at CostCo.


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## Bobby (May 21, 2004)

So how long before the hammer drops and Houston turns into a ghost town???


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## fishingcacher (Mar 29, 2008)

We made it through under $10/bbl before. I doubt mansion in River Oaks will drop below $1,000,000.


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## Category6 (Nov 21, 2007)

have y'all heard about airless tires?


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## grman (Jul 2, 2010)

I think that what REB was trying to say is that actual oil consumption and production does infulance price, futures are traded by contract months in the future - very simular to Mattress Mack betting on millions - on the price of oil. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## Jolly Roger (May 21, 2004)

grman said:


> I think that what REB was trying to say is that actual oil consumption and production does infulance price, futures are traded by contract months in the future - very simular to Mattress Mack betting on millions - on the price of oil.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


not really like Mattress Mack,

Future trading of commodities help to stabilize the price, not the other way around. Also futures help to stabilize supply so there is not shortages of things. If crude oil or gasoline was bought and sold day to day like Stocks we would see huge price swings all the time. Consumers would be on a roller coaster ride from day to day, hour to hour. It truly is pure ignorance to blame speculators for the price of gasoline or crude oil. It is simple supply and demand, unlike stocks someone has to take delivery of the oil or gas that is being bought and sold in the contracts.


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## grman (Jul 2, 2010)

Jolly Roger,

I think it actually makes the peakes and valleys higher and deeper. I think there is a herd mentality with traders and they are slow to buck the trend. Not too long ago everybody was jumping rising oil prices. Economist were predicting this 45 degree growth slope for China, 2 cars in every Chinese driveway etc. Now the question is - What trader is going to sign a 6-8 month contract for more $$ per barrel? Who is going to risk their job to buck the downward spiral?


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## Jolly Roger (May 21, 2004)

grman said:


> Jolly Roger,
> 
> I think it actually makes the peakes and valleys higher and deeper. I think there is a herd mentality with traders and they are slow to buck the trend. Not too long ago everybody was jumping rising oil prices. Economist were predicting this 45 degree growth slope for China, 2 cars in every Chinese driveway etc. Now the question is - What trader is going to sign a 6-8 month contract for more $$ per barrel? Who is going to risk their job to buck the downward spiral?


futures are higher, so guess someone is. That is not to say it may not trend down by the time we get there. The high/low not looking good for mcuh of a rise in price until mid next year. Gasoline futures are higher also. That is the part everyone seems to overlook, got to put your *** on the line way out when trading like this.

here is a link to the pricing on crude oil

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.html


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## TexasVines (Jan 5, 2012)

grman said:


> Jolly Roger,
> 
> I think it actually makes the peakes and valleys higher and deeper. I think there is a herd mentality with traders and they are slow to buck the trend. Not too long ago everybody was jumping rising oil prices. Economist were predicting this 45 degree growth slope for China, 2 cars in every Chinese driveway etc. Now the question is - What trader is going to sign a 6-8 month contract for more $$ per barrel? Who is going to risk their job to buck the downward spiral?


there are cost associated with storing oil (or any commodity) which is why oil (or any commodity) can go into "cantango" which is when the futures price is higher than the current spot price

as was stated before at some point someone has to take delivery of a contract and on that same train of thought at some point the end user has to lock in a price so they can know their cost of production and they can forecast their profits or losses

if a refinery can buy crude futures (most refineries have most of their needs on long term contracts they are only buying spot for the last small % when they know they need it) and they can sell gas futures at a level that gives them a profit then they will make the trade

end users do not generally make their profits on trading futures contracts they use futures contracts to lock in a cost of production and then to set a price of their product

yes in the past SWA in particular made a lot of money on hedging fuel when fuel was going up, but they also had a period after that when they were locked into a bit of a remaining contract for higher fuel prices than what the current spot price was

but the reality was they had customers looking to lock in air travel in the future and they had planes to fly and pilots ect to pay and they needed to know what fuel would cost to fulfill those flights and to offer those flights so they make the trade

if you are a cereal maker or a tortilla maker or a cattle feeder and you have overhead and production equipment and demand for your products you need the corn and the sooner you can decide what price you can get the corn for the sooner you can make a decision on your sales price for your product you do not sit there and wait until the last minute to go into the market to make a buy because by then your buyers of your product (grocery stores slaughter plants ect) have already bought from your competition and they no longer need your product and now you have a bunch of equipment, facilities and employees that are doing nothing and or producing a product you have no market for

traders trade, but at some point someone holding that contract (on settlement day) gets a call and some guy says come get your **** or where do you want me to drop your ****


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## Right_Hook (Sep 12, 2015)

fishingcacher said:


> I was surprised to see gasoline at $1.60/gallon today at CostCo.


$ 1.61 for COSTCO Diesel....77584


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## waterwolf (Mar 6, 2005)

2016 is predicted to have a rough 6-9 months. Get ready. Gas prices are down and food prices are WAY UP....


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## Wizness (Jun 15, 2011)

Sucks for oil and gas for sure..makes me glad i choose the medical route.


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## Its Catchy (Apr 10, 2014)

It really looks bleak for domestic producers that have used debt to finance their exploration and production. It seems the institutions that loaned them the money are going to wan't it back at some point with interest and guess what? At 35.00 a barrel they don't have it.

So we have all heard the saying:

When you owe the banks a million dollars and can't pay it you have a problem
When you owe the banks a billion dollars and can't bay it THEY have a problem

There is a "Shale Play Credit Crisis" that is going to spread this year and effect much, much more than just those in the O&G industries.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/355...ebt-challenges-will-offer-great-opportunities


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## Jolly Roger (May 21, 2004)

Wizness said:


> Sucks for oil and gas for sure..makes me glad i choose the medical route.


yep, Medical can gouge people all day ever day. Insane profits in that business.

oil company takes a risk, spends billions to look for oil and can only sell it at open market prices

drug company spends a few millions in research, makes a drug, can sell it for what ever they want to.

Doctors, insurance companies, etc.. all overcharge for what they provide and have a captured consumer in closed markets.

Very profitable business for sure, and funny enough were many energy investors hedge into.


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## BullyARed (Jun 19, 2010)

redexpress said:


> I'm not too sure about the Saudi's bank reserves. I read somewhere they give their citizens so many benefits that they don't have much in the bank.
> They have to pump oil or cut back on the welfare. The royal family is scared to do that.


Same promise as in the debate last night!


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## pknight6 (Nov 8, 2014)

V-Bottom said:


> It's past time for O&G to bite the bullet unlike many MILLIONS of consumers had to do when the cost of gas was high. What goes around comes around as they say


The hardship I suffered because of $4/gallon gas was nothing compared to what those in the industry are suffering now. Gas is like one 30th or less of my living expenses. I'll happily pay more for gas to see my friends and neighbors keep their jobs. It seems like you are happy to see them suffer now, because you had to pay a lot for gas a few years ago?


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## sotexhookset (Jun 4, 2011)

fishinguy said:


> I'm not sure if you realize the overflow of the problem. The situation effects much more than just O&G. Everyone from your local realtor to the Walmart employee is effected by oil prices.
> 
> However if you are living at the bottom of society and a taker from society I doubt the impact will be very significant, enjoy your cheap gas, it should reduce the amount it will cost to haul free firewood.


This is what I imagine when I see post he types. Obama paid internet bill probably too. Fng broke *** moron.


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## Bobby (May 21, 2004)

sotexhookset said:


> This is what I imagine when I see post he types. Obama paid internet bill probably too. Fng broke *** moron.


Is this the way you feel about all disabled vets? This man served in the military and wrote a check for his life so you can call him a "Fng broke *** moron"
He has a right to have a opinion. He fought for it. What have you done?


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## mstrelectricman (Jul 10, 2009)

I don't care if a person was a freakin general and had his legs blown off servin our country...when he says somethin stupid it's just stupid. 
That is all.


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## Bobby (May 21, 2004)

mstrelectricman said:


> I don't care if a person was a freakin general and had his legs blown off servin our country...when he says somethin stupid it's just stupid.
> That is all.


You do it all the time. But you can't be called out for it.


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## mstrelectricman (Jul 10, 2009)

Your avatar explains your mentality. Like some of the most prominent posters here have said to me in PMs....pray for bobby's poor wife.


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## Mr. Breeze (Jan 6, 2005)

now...now...children....is Christmas stressing you out? Be nice.


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## Bobby (May 21, 2004)

mstrelectricman said:


> Your avatar explains your mentality. Like some of the most prominent posters here have said to me in PMs....pray for bobby's poor wife.


Are those the same ones that PM me about you??


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## jaime1982 (Aug 25, 2009)

Bobby said:


> Is this the way you feel about all disabled vets? This man served in the military and wrote a check for his life so you can call him a "Fng broke *** moron"
> He has a right to have a opinion. He fought for it. What have you done?


I dont care for his opinion on most things (fried chicken, gas, oil, cost of ice, rain, retail gas stations ect) but he certainly is entitled to post it.


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## sotexhookset (Jun 4, 2011)

And so are we. There's thousands of men and women who served (with my utmost respect and prayers to them and their families DAILY) that are truly disabled and even more that are truly not. You know what I'm talking about.


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## mstrelectricman (Jul 10, 2009)

For all those negatively hit by the O&G lay offs, I feel for you and hope it turns around soon. I went through it in the 80s and know it hurts. In 87 when it dried up for me, I went back to school to use my time wisely. It was a good move for me and then went back to my original career in the electrical trade. When the patch got goin again a couple of the better companies called me back and I respectfully declined their offers. O&G is and always has been an up and down thing. The fact is though, O&G downturns hurt us all, well, except those that don't work anyway.


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## Won Hunglo (Apr 24, 2007)

Bobby said:


> So how long before the hammer drops and Houston turns into a ghost town???


Won't happen. Mr. Turner has promised to tax us out of this mess.


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## poppadawg (Aug 10, 2007)

Friggin depressing. It will get bloodier before it gets better. Saudis are way to committed at this point to shift their strategy. And it is working. Just hope to hell half of Houston isnt unemployed when markets do balance and the smoke clears.


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## LandLocked (Apr 28, 2005)

This is an interview of a friend of mine on this subject. While it was done in February, 2015 it is still very relevant albeit a bit stale.

Very worth the 15 minutes it takes to view.

http://www.theenergymakers.com/episodes/february-2015/episode-172.html

Personally, I believe most of the wild swings are because of the way the futures market is for this commodity. Most of these futures contracts are bought and sold by individuals/entitles that have NO intentions of EVER accepting delivery of the product. If these individuals/entities were required to accept delivery for every 100,500,1000 trades they make over a given time period, the price IMHO would normalize.

Someone earlier mentioned the reduction in Capital Spending in the O&G sector. This I believe is going to have a big impact on many sectors of our economy in 2016 and beyond.

But, the Middle East is and always will be a powder keg waiting to explode. One misplaced RPG could set off a shooting war that would disrupt the supply of oil from the Middle Eastern area and send prices through the roof.


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## BayouBonsaiMan (Apr 14, 2009)

Thanks for the explanation form Mr. Vines about Saudi dumping oil might not be illegal but if they are our "friends" or not, they are the ones that could reverse this circling around the drain that is happening now. Why is this not a national issue? Will it be when Wall st realizes that shale oil was the biggest reason we climbed out of the mess that was 09 and when this industry is shut down, we will be in the frying pan again along with many countries that depend on oil revenue and investment?. Do we have any leverage with the Saudi's to convince them that they have proved their point but they are better in the long
run to produce less, give up some share, sell their oil for higher price for longer to a healthy world economy.? Cramer just said they are doing this to hurt Iranians and Isis, said they don't want anyone to go to Iran to produce oil so they push price down so low no one can make any money there. I think this is something we could help by convincing them Isis is going to be destroyed and how! Former defense analyst I talked to said we "western powers" could hire 
merceniares to do job, said there are plenty and they are way more effective
than other options. Anybody agree we should be twisting arms somewhere?


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## Jolly Roger (May 21, 2004)

BayouBonsaiMan said:


> Thanks for the explanation form Mr. Vines about Saudi dumping oil might not be illegal but if they are our "friends" or not, they are the ones that could reverse this circling around the drain that is happening now. Why is this not a national issue? Will it be when Wall st realizes that shale oil was the biggest reason we climbed out of the mess that was 09 and when this industry is shut down, we will be in the frying pan again along with many countries that depend on oil revenue and investment?. Do we have any leverage with the Saudi's to convince them that they have proved their point but they are better in the long
> run to produce less, give up some share, sell their oil for higher price for longer to a healthy world economy.? Cramer just said they are doing this to hurt Iranians and Isis, said they don't want anyone to go to Iran to produce oil so they push price down so low no one can make any money there. I think this is something we could help by convincing them Isis is going to be destroyed and how! Former defense analyst I talked to said we "western powers" could hire
> merceniares to do job, said there are plenty and they are way more effective
> than other options. Anybody agree we should be twisting arms somewhere?


Talking heads give Saudi to much credit. It was the other nations in OPEC that ignored there quotas and over supplied. Saudi just followed suit, at this point OPEC is in free fall and nothing the Saudi's can do about it. No one is listening to them any longer in OPEC. The talk of hurting Iran or ISIS is a cover story to hide the downfall.

Only positive from this is OPEC has shown to be weak and at the point of collapse. While it may pull thru all of this, OPEC will not have the control of the market they have enjoyed in the past. Once the dust settles will be a new era with crude oil.

I know a lot of "mercenaries" now days they are called security forces. Yes I do think that with highly trained small force units could go in and wipe out the leadership of ISIS. But in this case cutting off the head does not kill the snake. As there will be another group or people to step in to take there place and there sleeper cells will still be in place. While is a temp answer not the best answer.



LandLocked said:


> Personally, I believe most of the wild swings are because of the way the futures market is for this commodity. Most of these futures contracts are bought and sold by individuals/entitles that have NO intentions of EVER accepting delivery of the product. If these individuals/entities were required to accept delivery for every 100,500,1000 trades they make over a given time period, the price IMHO would normalize.


history has proven this theory to not work, as it allows for large buyers to corner markets. There are extreme example in US history of this taking place.

There is a built in safety net when you have more people able to buy and sell. And as has been said before all contracts in commodities, even today, have to take delivery or pay maintenance fees on the date of the contract.


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## Landman650 (Nov 25, 2015)

I'm quite understanding of the negative undertones of the comments in a topic like this, but people MUST remember two things. Oil n natural gas is simply a commodity that's value is dictated mostly by supply and demand. It always has and always will have it's ups and downs. Now for the optimistic view of this, we must remember that a lot of the reason for this is our own(American) development of shale plays and how we have technologically advanced in a way that our supply far overshot demand. We cannot be mad at anyone or if we were to get mad at the root of the problem it would be at ourselves and our ability to produce unknown reserves as of even 10 years ago.

Secondly, on an emotional level I feel that this is straight up economic terrorism by OPEC to destroy American industry by our "friends" such as the Saudis, we must remember that at the core of America's highest held beliefs is that capitalism is king. In no way would we ever ask our American owned companies to restrain production and limit it for the sake of market control. This is two fold....(at least) and either way America is partly to blame. It's a commodity market, if you can't stomach the downturns, get a government job.


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## sweenyite (Feb 22, 2009)

Prayers for those in the patch! $60/bbl would be nice!


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## sweenyite (Feb 22, 2009)

Bobby said:


> Is this the way you feel about all disabled vets? This man served in the military and wrote a check for his life so you can call him a "Fng broke *** moron"
> He has a right to have a opinion. He fought for it. What have you done?


Quite a few of us on this board are veterans. We just don't feel the need to point it out when we post. Let your thoughts stand on their own merit.


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## Its Catchy (Apr 10, 2014)

BayouBonsaiMan said:


> Anybody agree we should be twisting arms somewhere?


Absolutely not! Twisting arms to artificially inflate the price of a commodity is not how the free market works. We will come through this like we have many times before without any bureaucratic "protection"

The Domestic Shale play producers will have to find a way to compete or go belly up. It's the fundamental building block of capitalism.


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## reb (Aug 12, 2005)

Everyone that drives uses less oil due to better fuel economies is another reason demand is down.

Coal based communities are the next to suffer as we move to other forms of energy.


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## batmaninja (Jul 15, 2010)

redexpress said:


> I'm not too sure about the Saudi's bank reserves. I read somewhere they give their citizens so many benefits that they don't have much in the bank.
> They have to pump oil or cut back on the welfare. The royal family is scared to do that.


Correct. This is the bright side, it is not sustainable.

_Analysts say internal strains on the royal family, which has spent recent years pouring billions of dollars into social programs in the hope of staving off Arab Spring-style democratic pressures, will only increase the longer oil stays cheap......

The same period saw Riyadh, for the first time in nearly a decade, begin borrowing from local markets to cover the cost of its domestic spending and to pay for an increasingly adventurous foreign policy that now features a proxy war against Iran-backed rebels in neighboring Yemen.

The economic strains come at a time of political uncertainty as well.

The royal family underwent an internal power transition following the death of ailing King Abdullah in January. The oil market woes also come as the Obama administration is pursuing a major nuclear accord with Iran â€" a deal that has sent speculation that Washington is moving away from its decades-old alliance with Sunni Muslim Saudi Arabia in favor of a diplomatic thaw with the Shiite-dominated government in Iran.

Saudi-U.S. ties will be under scrutiny again when 79-year-old King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud makes an expected visit to Washington next month, his first since ascending to the throne.

â€œItâ€™s not over the next two or three years, but 10 or more, and itâ€™s going to put some real strain on the royal family,â€ said Joshua Landis, who heads the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma, and who grew up in Saudi Arabia. â€œOnce the financial strain really does eventually hit, the Saudis are going to have to do some radical social and political re-engineering.â€.......

â€œActual spending reached an all-time high in 2013, and the 2014 budget set a higher spending target than 2013, with 38 percent of total spending earmarked for education and health care initiatives,â€ according to the CRS report, which maintained that the kingdom â€œran a budget deficit of $14.4 billion in FY2014 as a result of a more than 28 percent increase in expenditures and declining oil revenues.â€

â€œTheyâ€™ve got to have two classrooms for everybody, because men canâ€™t be taught in the same room as women. There have to be different hospitals for both,â€ he said. â€œThereâ€™s basically double spending on everything, and money gets thrown at domestic servants and drivers because women arenâ€™t allowed to drive.â€_

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news...yal-familys-grasp-on-power-threaten/?page=all

Not to mention that each male in the royal family has like 20 wife's and about 20 kids with each (or Princes) so the royal family and the hand outs are increasing on an infinite level.


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## jaime1982 (Aug 25, 2009)

Its Catchy said:


> Absolutely not! Twisting arms to artificially inflate the price of a commodity is not how the free market works. We will come through this like we have many times before without any bureaucratic "protection"
> 
> The Domestic Shale play producers will have to find a way to compete or go belly up. It's the fundamental building block of capitalism.


100% agree


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## Friendswoodmatt (Feb 22, 2005)

sd it before and it still fits -- 
This< I have said before and I will say again because it fits -- for those of you blaming the companies for laying off people -- "You MUST ALWAYS TAKE CARE OF THE GOOSE AS IT LAYS THE GOLDEN EGGS" 
They are taking care of the goose with what is going on now -- simple does it suck? Yes it does but its what happens and when i see people blaming CEOs it just ticks me off- please read on....
We are now on the other side of the equation. just sayin'
I posted this back in 2006 and I figure it might apply here as well-- and no I am not overjoyed at the current fuel/crude prices, but I didn't get them there 
My .02--
2006
I recently quit my job as a Fuels blender/ trader (Gas and Fuel oil) to open my own business,(probably not the best time to exit that business huh?) but still felt the need to chime in on this issue. I don't like the high gas prices either, but you need to be aware of a few things.
How many of you folks that are complaining about the high price of Gas have a 401K with mutual funds? The Speculative market for oil and all the derivatives (Gasoline, natural gas, Diesel) is a publicly traded deal. That means everyone from Shell to Southwest Airlines to your mutual fund speculates in these markets. If one of your mutual funds has a hedge fund included in its portfolio, then chances are you are profiting from the increased price of these commodities as well. The Gasoline and Oils markets are traded worldwide. These prices are all based upon Supply and demand.
Exxon and the other majors were starving a few years ago when oil was at 10/bbl. They were loosing millions per year to stay in business. Wall-street did not want them, and everyone invested in the Tech boom, then it went bust. These companies had real assets and not just intellectual property(refineries etc..) , that means they had to maintain and improve them (regulatory changes) them when their markets were not permitting them to operate at a profit, and their cash reserves were low. If you own a business then you know how tough it is to spend money when you are not making any because the market just does not bear the price you need to operate your assets at a profit. Look what happened to the Steel industry in this country. Prices went through the floor, business moved off-shore because we taught everyone else how to make it and they had newer stuff, cheaper labor and less regulation so our plants closed. So plants went out of business. Now Steel is higher than ever. Why? Now, China is buying it up and the supply is tight, so if you want to buy it -- you pay more. The cycle has come back around for these commodities and the folks that managed their business through the tough time are able to profit.
All this stuff is a cycle. Do I think oil will go back to 10/bbl?- No, but I think it will go down, or at least stabilize. Living in Texas surely some of the people on this board must have been through 1-2 oil booms and 1-2 busts.
Finished Gasoline is a blend of refinery products. They do not just make gasoline in the Cracker. You get the base but you must add things (octane & additives) that will allow your car to make the mileage figures required buy the EPA (I am aware that their are other reasons for blending) . ,This brings us to the new oxygenate-- Ethanol. This is now what is used to blend the octane into the "raw gasoline" and it is expensive. The availability of this is net short, so in order to blend enough octane, the companies either need to use higher priced components (reformate, akylates etc...) and/or pay up for Ethanol. Their is not enough Ethanol production capacity to feed the demand and the transportation cant get it down here fast enough because we don't have enough rail cars, tanks etc.. The higher priced components cost more to produce as well because it takes more energy and processing to make them.
I haven't heard anybody slamming the farmers for profiting off of corn to make this ****. Or slamming the steel industry or rail roads for not having the cars or infrastructure to get the Ethanol down here to ease the supply constraints.
During all of this, the Government decides to lower the sulfur allowed in fuels. Great idea for the environment, however it reduces the supplies that are available to blend. This makes the cost go up. The companies are trying to build more capacity to allow them to remove the sulfur from these streams, but you cannot just slap a new unit in place. Often it can take years to get the proper permits in place. Remember, a few years ago these guys were just trying to survive, so they were not going to spend $$$ to build any new capacity because they were just trying to keep afloat.
Sometimes refineries actually must tear down another unit in their plant to allow for the added loading on the environment. So they must tear down an asset (in some case these are idle, but not all) to build a new unit. The costs a ton of money and time folks.
The regulations make it almost impossible to build any new capacity (refineries) in this country. Heck, Houston is now a non-attainment area. That means our air is not clean enough and anything anybody wants to add is really difficult to get approved.
So, what do you do? Go build a refinery in another location right? Wrong, how many folks do you know that would say "hey I wish they would build a new refinery in my city so I could ease the supply constraints." No, most of the time what you hear is " I don't want of those dirty smelly things near where I live"
Lets say for the sake of discussion that someone did say "Great Idea, build it here." Now you must get all of the permits and environmental studies done to determine feasibility, and that you are not digging up any significant Archaeological area, and that the worms in the area are going to be OK, but you also must feed it. Is takes a lot of oil to feed a refinery. How are you going to transport it? Pipeline? (please see above permits and other issues) Barge/Ship? OK that means it is going to be on the water right? Wetlands will be disturbed-- more time and permitting issues. In short it is a difficult process.
I am sorry if this offends anyone, but the oil companies don't control the price of the oil. Speculators and large economies do. 
Some one pretty smart once said "In a gold rush,if you want to have a good business- don't stake a claim and pan for gold with all the other guys -- Sell pans and shovels." In my mind that's what these guys did. They starved through the hard times and made investments when they had no money and the market came back. 
Yes now they are printing money, but they don't control the prices, the world does. Prices will turn back down one day or they will and they wont be making as much then. Are you going to step up and help them through the hard times by paying more at the pump? Until we get the supply up the prices will stay high.


Here we are 9 years later (the cycle ran its course) and the supply has all of the sudden become greater than the demand, now a new group is lamenting the;

profits of the big boys their lifestyle has been radically altered, please be aware they had a good run and now the goose comes first. 
I am sorry if you are caught in this deal, but rest easy knowing:

This is the nature of markets, but relax because 1 of 2 things will happen soon maybe not as soon as you want but soon:
1. New markets will re-emerge since fuels costs are low and new opportunities will come with them to employee those displaced by the latest events, or 
2: A war will break out and oil will go back up -- (more likely in the short term)


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## TexasVines (Jan 5, 2012)

Jolly Roger said:


> Talking heads give Saudi to much credit. It was the other nations in OPEC that ignored there quotas and over supplied. Saudi just followed suit, at this point OPEC is in free fall and nothing the Saudi's can do about it. No one is listening to them any longer in OPEC. The talk of hurting Iran or ISIS is a cover story to hide the downfall.
> 
> Only positive from this is OPEC has shown to be weak and at the point of collapse. While it may pull thru all of this, OPEC will not have the control of the market they have enjoyed in the past. Once the dust settles will be a new era with crude oil.


the Saudis have been pumping for above quota for a long long time the difference was in the past when they said they were "closing the taps" the markets sort of believed it and reacted with an upward price

we are in a situation right now where there is no control to a downward price because a lot of the large producers of oil are run by total and complete economic morons that can't even grasp a simple supply and demand graph and even if they could they still need the social programs that oil money brings to keep them in power

Venezuela is run right now by a guy that is practically illiterate (like literally illiterate) and probably has to have someone else sign documents for him

in Nigeria oil is so low that even thieves can't afford to steal it with large scale impunity which means more of it reaches the market and even the same in Mexico where the cartels were getting into large scale oil theft when the prices were high

the "Iran Sanctions" were actually a factor that should have caused LOWER PRICES, but people (even some "educated traders and economist") can't understand this and thus the sanctions being "on" caused oil to go up and being "off" causes it to go down even though the opposite is really what happens

here is why......places like China (and even Japan and Korea and India and most other Asian countries and all third world importers of oil) do not care about the sanctions they will make back room and under the table deals with Iran and they will use third party countries to make deals as well and especially in the case of China because they know they have Iran "over a barrel" they will hold their feet to the fire on prices and get the oil while sanctions are "on" for a much lower price......this hurts Iran on income and helps those other buyers on cost, but you simply cannot ignore the reality that the oil being sold is sold at a LOWER PRICE and thus that lower price needs to be figured into the REAL WORLD cost/price of oil, but because many first world and USA economist and government morons live in lala land and ignore realities and cheating and sanctions busting and the like they pretend that oil is not sold or they pretend it was sold at a price that was much closer to the actual "market price" than it was

and because Iran is getting a lower price they will pump more to make up the needed income and we ignore this as well and the fact that more production is a price lowering exercise

then when sanctions "come off" we all the sudden pretend that "all this Iranian oil is back on the market" and that "Iran will pump more now because of no sanctions" when the REALITY is that oil HAS ALWAYS BEEN IN THE MARKET because it was being produced and sold we were just stupid and pretend it was not being produced and sold

and along with that when Iran gets a price closer to world market price for their oil they can now pump LESS and keep the same income......but again we are stupid and pretend that now that sanctions are "off" Iran will suddenly produce more

same with isis and Libya.....yes "instability" lowers production, but once those barbarians get to some sustained level of production and those "in the know" (chicoms and russia certainly no one in the obongo administration) realize what that production level is well then that production is accounted for and isis and those in control in Libya are true barbarians they are all for sustenance living and they will sell for what price they can get and from their point of view the more they pump to get any dollars the better because if they can kill all the "infidels" and at the same time run oil reserves to nothing well there is nothing left to fight for then and they "win".....no one fights over a box of turds so if they can sell for any price now and conquer and run oil reserves down well the less motivation for others to fight.....this is why it is so hard to get Afgans to fight because they live in a box of turds with no real reason to fight and nothing to fight for

so the short term instability of price is gone with isis and Libya and while blowing them up more would be seen as "war in middle east instability" the real reason the price would go up is if you get someone back in power that would ration sales to keep a higher price (no matter if they squandered the proceeds or not which they probably would)

right now traders with a real "vision" are making money because they understand the above and others are just getting lucky because the price is going down

the turn around comes when those with a vision step out of the market for a moment and then readjust for an upward movement and those getting lucky will get wiped out completely

that will come when the price gets to the point that Venezuela, Nigeria, Iran, Brazil and other larger semi-inefficient and capital deficient producers get tot he point where they lose money on each barrel produced and they simply can't produce anymore because of course you do not make up a per unit loss with "volume".....the problem is of course economic imbeciles (including the obongo) do not understand this and never have and never will so they go well past the pain point before the collapse

and generally places like China, the USA and Europe and India and Japan and Korea have by then become used to low low oil and fuel prices and demand has been increasing and suddenly production finally collapses in several large areas while demand ramps up

and prices shoot dramatically

probably the way the "layman" would know this is coming is when the chinaman starts contracting up most all of the tanker capacity and starts filling them and SLOWLY steaming them over to China and along with that parks many older ones off shore to sit and hold oil in storage and when they start signing longer term supply deals......and those deals will be viewed by fools as meaning that "the price will stay low for longer into the future because the price has been set with these low deals"......when the reality is the chicoms are locking in low cost before price spikes


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## gunsmoke11 (Apr 30, 2012)

Flapp'n Shad said:


> I would rather pay the high gas prices and keep a ton of folks working than to pay a lower price and have a bunch of people laid off.....just my 2 cents.


V gets off to the low gas prices. He is retired and dont really care about all the young families that are affected. He only cares when he puts that card in the pump...selfish DH


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## going_deep (Apr 13, 2014)

Knock on wood, we are still trucking along....I go back out Wednesday....but definitely carrying around the stress


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## iamatt (Aug 28, 2012)

Just cleaning out the office... few token from better times.


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## mstrelectricman (Jul 10, 2009)

iamatt said:


> Just cleaning out the office... few token from better times.


Bummer man. Hope you find something quick and Merry Christmas.


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## waterwolf (Mar 6, 2005)

Oil went up today..hope it keeps climbing....keeping fingers crossed for a better second half in 2016. The start is going to be rough they say.


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## RedXCross (Aug 7, 2005)

Good post, there are a lot of posts on here WHO think they know, but you have a strong understanding.
For a minute there we had FOLKS talking about Medical, vs. this and they really have NO clue from there post on pricing.



Friendswoodmatt said:


> sd it before and it still fits --
> This< I have said before and I will say again because it fits -- for those of you blaming the companies for laying off people -- "You MUST ALWAYS TAKE CARE OF THE GOOSE AS IT LAYS THE GOLDEN EGGS"
> They are taking care of the goose with what is going on now -- simple does it suck? Yes it does but its what happens and when i see people blaming CEOs it just ticks me off- please read on....
> We are now on the other side of the equation. just sayin'
> ...


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## bigfishtx (Jul 17, 2007)

iamatt said:


> Just cleaning out the office... few token from better times.


God bless you pal. Better times are coming, hang in there.


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## JJGold1 (May 6, 2010)

Getting closer with WTI breaking below $34.00. This is about to get ugly(er).


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## MarkU (Jun 3, 2013)

You never know. This downward spiral may be coming to an end. Iran and the Saudi's aren't playing nice. If Iran starts some carp in the Straight of Hormuz. That would stop a huge amount of oil coming out of that region. 

If these 2 fanatical countries get into it. There's going to be a whole lot of oil wells going boom, over there.


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## BullyARed (Jun 19, 2010)

gunsmoke11 said:


> V gets off to the low gas prices. He is retired and dont really care about all the young families that are affected. He only cares when he puts that card in the pump...selfish DH


on the flip side when oil company like Exxon Mobil and Shell posted $10B - $20B profit for the year not too long ago and the gas price was climbing to $4-$5/gal. Did they give a chit rat for those poor folks who made minimum wage and had to cut back many things including foods to buy gas to go to work? Many enjoyed new big truck, new boat, guns, etc... yes, I feel bad for all those who lost their jobs.


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## Jolly Roger (May 21, 2004)

BullyARed said:


> on the flip side when oil company like Exxon Mobil and Shell posted $10B - $20B profit for the year not too long ago and the gas price was climbing to $4-$5/gal. Did they give a chit rat for those poor folks who made minimum wage? Many enjoyed new big truck, new boat, guns, etc... yes, I feel bad for all those who lost their jobs.


 How the hell are they affording a car making minimum wages?

they can afford those high dollar gas drinking SUVs because tax payers like Exxon and Me pay for everything for them. Then they cry like little *****es swiping there Lonestar cards for there Cigs.


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## Its Catchy (Apr 10, 2014)

The markets in China and the U.S. would not lead one to believe we can expect much economic growth to help us shrink the ever growing worldwide glut of crude in storage either.

And then there is millions of barrels of crude from Iran that may hit the market this year as well.

It looks horrible for 2016 if not longer. But on a positive note, there will be fortunes made for those who have the cash and fortitude to jump back in at some point. The world is not going to stop using crude.


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## Jolly Roger (May 21, 2004)

Its Catchy said:


> The markets in China and the U.S. would not lead one to believe we can expect much economic growth to help us shrink the ever growing worldwide glut of crude in storage either.
> 
> And then there is millions of barrels of crude from Iran that may hit the market this year as well.
> 
> It looks horrible for 2016 if not longer. But on a positive note, there will be fortunes made for those who have the cash and fortitude to jump back in at some point. The world is not going to stop using crude.


usually when the consensus thinks they have a market figured out is when it makes a big change.

Not saying this is what going to happen in this case, but more often then not when people all assume that the price is going one way, it does something different. If not then there would not be all those valleys and peaks in all charts.


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## batmaninja (Jul 15, 2010)

*Long article from UH Bauer*

_Over the last 15 months, Houston has seen its economic world turned upside down. Last September, the fracking boom was in full force, the local economy was steadily adding 100,000 jobs per year, and Houston was out-performing the U.S. by a wide margin. Then the price of oil fell, the drilling market collapsed, local job growth turned barely positive, and Houstonâ€™s unemployment rate rose above the U.S rate. The latest setback came this summer with the announcement of the Iranian nuclear agreement that will lift trade sanctions and allow Iranâ€™s oil to return to market. Oil prices that had returned to near $60 per barrel last spring were suddenly in full retreat once more. Any hope of a V-shaped recovery in drilling markets was squashed, and along with it any hopes of quick and easy economic recovery for Houston. It means another year of slow local job growth in 2016, with the eventual return of stronger growth highly unpredictable.

Three big events currently drive Houstonâ€™s economy: solid U.S. economic expansion, a collapse in drilling that is now unmatched since the 1980s, and an unprecedented petrochemical construction boom based on low natural gas prices. Each of these has its own powerful influence on the local economy, two are positive and one negative, and this article is an effort to sum it all up.

The bottom line for Houston is continued very slow but positive near-term growth, considerable uncertainty about when strong growth will return, and long-term optimism for the future. For Houston, this is not the massive reversal of the 1980s, but one more return to familiar -- if unwelcome â€" territory. This marks the cityâ€™s fifth time though a major drilling bust since 1982. *All of them have been painful, but none of them fatal.*_

http://www.bauer.uh.edu/centers/irf/houston-updates.php

I posted just the introduction. But the full article walks you through the possibles recoveries and the reasons why. Lots of graphs too.


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## flatscat1 (Jun 2, 2005)

Jolly Roger said:


> usually when the consensus thinks they have a market figured out is when it makes a big change.
> 
> Not saying this is what going to happen in this case, but more often then not when people all assume that the price is going one way, it does something different. If not then there would not be all those valleys and peaks in all charts.


The institutional money (Carlyle, Blackstone, etc) are rolling out distressed energy funds. They say the money will be made buying the debt of companies in the industry. Rather than bet on the commodity rebound, that is the route the smart money is taking.

I had lunch with an experienced energy M&A attorney the other day. He said he is not yet busy, implying you've not yet seen enough pain. I think it is going to take a while and lots of companies will be taken private, or sold to foreign nations, before its over. China will fill their strategic reserves (by buying operators with behind pipe reserves in the USA) and they will do so at very low rates.


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## Its Catchy (Apr 10, 2014)

It looks like this is starting to effect more than just those of us employed by the oil and gas industry.

HAR is reporting a 10.5% decrease in home sales for the Houston market for the month of November. The second straight monthly decline.

The 84th Texas legislature is set to convene again in January 2017. Does anyone here think our duly elected officials have planned for and budgeted appropriately for the huge shortfall in tax dollars due to the lost revenue?

http://www.har.com/content/mls

http://www.click2houston.com/news/texas-lowers-projected-tax-revenue-by-4-7b-amid-oil-prices


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## chumy (Jul 13, 2012)

BullyARed said:


> on the flip side when oil company like Exxon Mobil and Shell posted $10B - $20B profit for the year not too long ago and the gas price was climbing to $4-$5/gal. Did they give a chit rat for those poor folks who made minimum wage and had to cut back many things including foods to buy gas to go to work? Many enjoyed new big truck, new boat, guns, etc... yes, I feel bad for all those who lost their jobs.


No, they didn't give a rat chit. And your point is what?


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## BullyARed (Jun 19, 2010)

Jolly Roger said:


> How the hell are they affording a car making minimum wages?
> 
> they can afford those high dollar gas drinking SUVs because tax payers like Exxon and Me pay for everything for them. Then they cry like little *****es swiping there Lonestar cards for there Cigs.


Well, this is not a good assumption here. Not all those who earn minimum wage, drive big SUV, and live off Lonestar card and cry like a B. We once long ago earned $1.78/hr minimum wage working at night doing groceries stocking and bakery baking at night and went to school during the day. The only thing we relied on the gov was the student loan and the scholarship we earned. We drove the old Chrysler clunker that we could afford for $600. We ate hamburger helper, chicken organs, beef liver, hot dog, etc... the best steak we had once a blue moon was the round steak. Gas was $0.41/gal and every time when it went up a nickel or a dime, we felt the bite on our budget. And there are many like us out there even these days.


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## ShadMan (May 21, 2004)

Its Catchy said:


> The 84th Texas legislature is set to convene again in January 2017. Does anyone here think our duly elected officials have planned for and budgeted appropriately for the huge shortfall in tax dollars due to the lost revenue?


I'm assuming this is a joke, seeing how state revenues from property taxes have increased tremendously over the last few years due to property valuations appreciating like never before and tax rates not being reduced in a corresponding manner.


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## BullyARed (Jun 19, 2010)

chumy said:


> No, they didn't give a rat chit. And your point is what?


 Originally Posted by *gunsmoke11*  
_V gets off to the low gas prices. He is retired and dont really care about all the young families that are affected. He only cares when he puts that card in the pump...selfish DH
=============================================

Why calling others selfish because the gas is cheap? They don't make it cheap. If they don't buy gas when it is cheap, it just makes the gas more cheaper! Supply vs Demand. Yes, and when it goes up back to $3.50/gal or more, who is selfish? 
_


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## Gilbert (May 25, 2004)

Jolly Roger said:


> How the hell are they affording a car making minimum wages?
> 
> they can afford those high dollar gas drinking SUVs because tax payers like Exxon and Me pay for everything for them. Then they cry like little *****es swiping there Lonestar cards for there Cigs.


way to use a broad brush there..........


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## fishingcacher (Mar 29, 2008)

ShadMan said:


> I'm assuming this is a joke, seeing how state revenues from property taxes have increased tremendously over the last few years due to property valuations appreciating like never before and tax rates not being reduced in a corresponding manner.


I heard they only meet every other year.


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## Its Catchy (Apr 10, 2014)

ShadMan said:


> I'm assuming this is a joke, seeing how state revenues from property taxes have increased tremendously over the last few years due to property valuations appreciating like never before and tax rates not being reduced in a corresponding manner.


Nothing funny about it. Certainly not a joke. The State is losing billions and billions of tax dollars that were generated from the oil boom. Property taxes have not gone up nearly enough to cover the shortfall. Considering they only meet every two years by the time the next session starts we will have billions and billions less than projected.


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## bigfishtx (Jul 17, 2007)

Guys, these " financial experts" that make these crazy predictions make money only when the market is showing movement.

Production has dropped substantially the past 6 months.

We are at the bottom, better times are ahead.
Yea, it could go down a 1-2$ but, $25?? ********.


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## Jolly Roger (May 21, 2004)

BullyARed said:


> Well, this is not a good assumption here. Not all those who earn minimum wage, drive big SUV, and live off Lonestar card and cry like a B. We once long ago earned $1.78/hr minimum wage working at night doing groceries stocking and bakery baking at night and went to school during the day. The only thing we relied on the gov was the student loan and the scholarship we earned. We drove the old Chrysler clunker that we could afford for $600. We ate hamburger helper, chicken organs, beef liver, hot dog, etc... the best steak we had once a blue moon was the round steak. Gas was $0.41/gal and every time when it went up a nickel or a dime, we felt the bite on our budget. And there are many like us out there even these days.


yeah, like I said

now days Tax money pays for there food,daycare,phones, etc..... do not give me this bleeding heart BS about people living on minimum wage not having a LOT of help. Add in public transportation there is no reason for most on minimum wage to ever have a car.

Got all that help and want to whine and ***** about people and companies putting it all on the line making a profit.


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## Salty-Noob (Jun 9, 2015)

Its Catchy said:


> Nothing funny about it. Certainly not a joke. The State is losing billions and billions of tax dollars that were generated from the oil boom. Property taxes have not gone up nearly enough to cover the shortfall. Considering they only meet every two years by the time the next session starts we will have billions and billions less than projected.


The state of Texas doesn't get any money from property taxes. They are assessed, collected and spent locally. And Texas pays some of the highest real estate property taxes in the nation...


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## Jolly Roger (May 21, 2004)

Salty-Noob said:


> And Texas pays some of the highest real estate property taxes in the nation...


and we pay zero state income tax, our boats, ATV's, RV's, etc... are not taxed as assets each year, etc...

look at the less taxed places to live in the US and Texas is one of the best.


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## Salty-Noob (Jun 9, 2015)

Jolly Roger said:


> and we pay zero state income tax, our boats, ATV's, RV's, etc... are not taxed as assets each year, etc...
> 
> look at the less taxed places to live in the US and Texas is one of the best.


I am aware

You want to pay more?

My response was to a guy who said our property taxes haven't gone up enough


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## Ted Gentry (Jun 8, 2004)

Hatfield said:


> Wow, I cannot even tell you how ignorant this statement is. You think someone comes along and marks the price up just to make a few more bucks? Gas prices follow commodity price. Commodity price follows production costs and S&D. Shale oil is more expensive to produce but it is domestic which gives us an additional benefit of more jobs. OPEC can sell us oil cheaper but in the long run that doesn't benefit us as a country. Your higher gas prices mean more americans are employed. I guarantee you that there are more people who would rather have a job than cheap gas prices.


Get use to his stupid reply's he could care less about anyone else as long as he's getting free stuff that he's begged others for, loser for sure!


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## Jolly Roger (May 21, 2004)

Salty-Noob said:


> I am aware
> 
> You want to pay more?
> 
> My response was to a guy who said our property taxes haven't gone up enough


There is a reason our property taxes are high in Texas, we have no state income taxes.

I would rather pay less, but with all the government handouts and population booming. Large income from oil being loss, I know taxes are going to go up. Smart thing to do would be cut government programs, but we all know that is not going to happen.


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## bassguitarman (Nov 29, 2005)

I looked at a thread of mine from 11/20/2014. It is interesting to look at the responses in view of the current state of the oil business:

*Oil at $75 Means Patches of Texas Shale Turn Unprofitable - Bloomberg

*http://2coolfishing.com/ttmbforum/showthread.php?t=1251289&highlight=oil


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## Salty-Noob (Jun 9, 2015)

Jolly Roger said:


> There is a reason our property taxes are high in Texas, we have no state income taxes.
> 
> I would rather pay less, but with all the government handouts and population booming. Large income from oil being loss, I know taxes are going to go up. Smart thing to do would be cut government programs, but we all know that is not going to happen.


We don't even make top ten of least tax paying states.

Louisiana does and they have a state income tax.

Our property taxes propell us over states that have income taxes. Our state sales tax is also on the upper end of the scale.

Long story short....my taxes are just fine

I agree the government programs should be cut, but won't.

The good thing is these last few years have over filled the Texas rainy day fund. It is getting close to its cap.

It's never fiscally responsible to do your budgeting on your best years. If the 80s taught us anything, it was to diversify.


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## Jolly Roger (May 21, 2004)

Salty-Noob said:


> We don't even make top ten of least tax paying states.


You may want to check on that.... Texas has been in the lowest top ten for a long time, and most of the time in the lowest top 5.

here are so links for reference

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-us-states-have-the-highest-and-lowest-taxes/

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/2013/03/02/state-local-tax-burden/1937757/

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/states-highest-lowest-taxes-130200027.html


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## Captain Dave (Jul 19, 2006)

Major Oil Companies have small profit from gas sales if any currently .

Years back ,XOM taught me well that they dont make sheet off ga$ $ales. Go figure..


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## Salty-Noob (Jun 9, 2015)

Jolly Roger said:


> You may want to check on that.... Texas has been in the lowest top ten for a long time, and most of the time in the lowest top 5.
> 
> here are so links for reference
> 
> ...


I was wrong

I see you deleted that Louisiana wasn't in there. :brew2::brew2:

I found a list that didn't have us in it, but they were factoring in gas taxes and some others.

But I was wrong.


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## Ox Eye (Dec 17, 2007)

To the experts:

Wouldnâ€™t Oil Companies be a bit better off if they sold an additional 18 billion gallons of gas during the year?


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## Its Catchy (Apr 10, 2014)

I did not mean to hijack the thread and get into taxes. The point I was trying to make was that the slowdown in the oilfield is about to spread into other areas like real estate, retail, car sales etc.

Whether or not you are employed by the oil and gas industry you are going to be effected by it.


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## Salty-Noob (Jun 9, 2015)

Its Catchy said:


> I did not mean to hijack the thread and get into taxes. The point I was trying to make was that the slowdown in the oilfield is about to spread into other areas like real estate, retail, car sales etc.
> 
> Whether or not you are employed by the oil and gas industry you are going to be effected by it.


Absolutely.

My wife don't get her raise this year


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## Postman (Oct 11, 2015)

I don't want to see anyone lose their jobs. Maybe some of the big oil will have to let their hunting leases go so the average Joe can get a little lease somewhere again at a reasonable price. When price and demand is high there are no limits to what the oil boys will buy or what they will pay. Just saying.........


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## duckmania (Jun 3, 2014)

I drove through Alice the other day, depressing and sad.


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## Cut n Shoot (Dec 11, 2015)

Salty-Noob said:


> Absolutely.
> 
> My wife don't get her raise this year


Where do you work noob?


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## BullyARed (Jun 19, 2010)

duckmania said:


> I drove through Alice the other day, depressing and sad.


A strong health for energy sector is good for Texas. Many jobs and people depend on it. Ghost town is depressing and sad and seeing many people out of job is even more.


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## V-Bottom (Jun 16, 2007)

www.oil-price.net


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## Ox Eye (Dec 17, 2007)

Ox Eye said:


> To the experts:
> 
> Wouldnâ€™t Oil Companies be a bit better off if they sold an additional 18 billion gallons of gas during the year?


The term "Experts" may have been too limiting. Any that have a conversational understanding of the Oil Bidness, feel free to jump in and field the question.


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## ShadMan (May 21, 2004)

It would depend on what their cost is per gallon and how much they sell it for per gallon, so the answer to your question is "maybe".


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## Salty-Noob (Jun 9, 2015)

Cut n Shoot said:


> Where do you work noob?


I work HVAC

My wife is in o&g


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## Ox Eye (Dec 17, 2007)

ShadMan said:


> It would depend on what their cost is per gallon and how much they sell it for per gallon, so the answer to your question is "maybe".


2014 is the last year where numbers are available and 137 billion gallons were sold. True the ppg was a bit higher than now, but 18 billion gallons is around 24% of additional sales assuming similar sale this year. When the supply outpaces the demand an additional 24%, even at a slightly lower price, is a pretty positive â€œmaybeâ€.


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## ShadMan (May 21, 2004)

You are assuming raw material, refining, transportation, and other costs remain constant and sales and supply contracts do not exist, though. Sure, in general O&G companies are in business to make profits and try their best not to sell at a loss, but they often do sell at a loss. 

Let me give you an example. Your retail electricity provider makes money on every kWh you use, correct? Then why do they lose money hand over fist during extreme heat waves? Because demand exceeds their guaranteed supply and they have to buy additional power at a premium (I've seen asking prices in excess of $.40/kWh at times), yet they are unable to raise the price on you to cover the premium price they had to pay because you have a contract that says your price is $.08/kWh. Thus, they lose money by selling more.


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## hankscke123 (Jun 8, 2011)

*need a mirical*

We need oil to climb to 70 dollars a barrel gas will be about 290 a gal and the company will keep their heads above water.


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## pocjetty (Sep 12, 2014)

V-Bottom said:


> It's past time for O&G to bite the bullet unlike many MILLIONS of consumers had to do when the cost of gas was high. What goes around comes around as they say


That is just serious jackassery. Sounds like you don't think you've gotten everything you deserve out of life, so you want to see someone else suffer. That's a recipe for permanent misery, my friend. I hope you get better.


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## Ox Eye (Dec 17, 2007)

ShadMan said:


> You are assuming raw material, refining, transportation, and other costs remain constant and sales and supply contracts do not exist, though.


I don't have the information to make any assumptions, just ask questions. What I hear is that supply outweighs demand. My layman's ears translate that to gasoline sitting in storage tanks in need of a better market. I, then, extrapolate that such a better market would exist without the ethanol mandate.

If that is an incorrect assessment on my part, I am open to an education.


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## bassguitarman (Nov 29, 2005)

Interesting article. Basically says that once OPEC regains control of the price, the price of crude will rise. (No **** Sherlock). I think 2016 will be too early for this to happen. But, it is an interesting article:

Oil will blow past $80 a barrel in 2016

http://blogs.reuters.com/breakingviews/2015/12/30/oil-will-blow-past-80-a-barrel-in-2016/


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## budreau (Jun 21, 2009)

i hope it does if for nothing else than to see v-bottoms reaction .


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## Its Catchy (Apr 10, 2014)

bassguitarman said:


> Interesting article. Basically says that once OPEC regains control of the price, the price of crude will rise. (No **** Sherlock). I think 2016 will be too early for this to happen. But, it is an interesting article:
> 
> Oil will blow past $80 a barrel in 2016
> 
> http://blogs.reuters.com/breakingviews/2015/12/30/oil-will-blow-past-80-a-barrel-in-2016/


This is a fantasy not based on reality. There are currently around 700 rigs still drilling in the U.S. Then there is a backlog of about 5,000 wells that have be drilled that are just waiting to frack and produce.

The author assumes the U.S. shale drillers currently sidelined will stay idle. They will not. Any bounce back in price will be met with increased domestic production in very short order.

The Shale Genie is out of the bottle and the technology cannot be undone. I would be ecstatic if oil got much above 55.00 and held there for more than a few months.


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## Ox Eye (Dec 17, 2007)

Ox Eye said:


> I don't have the information to make any assumptions, just ask questions. What I hear is that supply outweighs demand. My layman's ears translate that to gasoline sitting in storage tanks in need of a better market. I, then, extrapolate that such a better market would exist without the ethanol mandate.
> 
> If that is an incorrect assessment on my part, I am open to an education.


Nothing???

This ethanol **** is costing folks more at the grocery store, costing folks more at the pump and costing folks more to operate and maintain their pleasure craft, as well as their lawn equipment. The general response has been â€œyawnâ€. And now, this ethanol **** might well cost folks in the Awl Bidness their jobs. The response is the same.

It is said, â€œthe average age of the worldâ€™s greatest civilizations has been two hundred years. These nations have progressed through a nine stage sequence: From bondage to spiritual faith; from spiritual faith to great courage; from courage to liberty; from liberty to abundance; from abundance to selfishness; from selfishness to complacency; from complacence to apathy; from apathy to dependence; from dependency back again into bondage.â€

If it is â€œapathyâ€ behind the lack of response, be advised that your next step is being a Gimme Dat!

Just sayinâ€™. :rotfl:


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## jaime1982 (Aug 25, 2009)

Ox Eye said:


> Nothing???
> 
> This ethanol **** is costing folks more at the grocery store, costing folks more at the pump and costing folks more to operate and maintain their pleasure craft, as well as their lawn equipment. The general response has been â€œyawnâ€. And now, this ethanol **** might well cost folks in the Awl Bidness their jobs. The response is the same.
> 
> ...


You sure hate ethanol huh?


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## BullyARed (Jun 19, 2010)

Jap said 90% ethanol makes good sake!


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## Ox Eye (Dec 17, 2007)

jaime1982 said:


> You sure hate ethanol huh?


Yessir! With a purple passion. Is there a single reason why I shouldn't?



BullyARed said:


> Jap said 90% ethanol makes good sake!


Say, for use as a Japanese toilet bowl cleaner?


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## Outearly (Nov 17, 2009)

Hey Ox-

You blasted me when I said Iowa was the issue with ethanol- take a look at this:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/ethanol...t-ted-cruz-in-iowa-republican-race-1452127023

Google the topic, there are plenty of articles about Cruz and ethanol


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## Ox Eye (Dec 17, 2007)

Outearly said:


> Hey Ox-
> 
> You blasted me when I said Iowa was the issue with ethanol


I don't immediately recall the stated incident, so a link would be helpful.

I've read many articles about Cruz and Iowa. He's been there doing a statewide campaign tour there for a while, now. And, yes, big moneyed interests in Iowa are down on his case. That's to be expected. What is noteworthy, though, is Cruz's Iowa poll numbers. They're pretty dang good. Some have him higher rated than Trump, who says he supports ethanol. It would seem not everyone in Iowa buys into the ethanol scam.

So, when you say "Iowa is the issue", I may have had reason to "blast" you. Can't be sure without that link, though.


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## Outearly (Nov 17, 2009)

Ox-

http://2coolfishing.com/ttmbforum/showthread.php?t=1671330

Yours is post 6 I believe

No worries about it, you're passionate about the corn ethanol issue, I agree, but for me it's politics forcing an uneconomic harmful product on the US.

I'll repeat myself - if Iowa wasn't the first caucus/primary, we wouldn't be talking about this.


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## Ox Eye (Dec 17, 2007)

Other than my response being a bit testy, it was not out of line. The issue was really not about Iowa - or elections - per se. Reading the rest of the thread clarifies that. Iowa does not have twice as many E0 outlets (you know what that is now) as Texas because of the Iowa caucus. But, if you insist on focusing on the elections and Iowa being the "battleground state" of note where politicians feel they have to bow to the ethanol alter to get elected, doesn't that make the issue even more perplexing? What is the rationale for the ethanol capital of the country to have twice as many E0 outlets as the gasoline capital?

And, why doesn't that fact burn Texan's grits to the point that politicians feel the need to bow and scrape at OUR feet to get votes? If it wasn't for Texas, folks would largely be running G0 in their vehicles.


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## jaime1982 (Aug 25, 2009)

Ox Eye said:


> Yessir! With a purple passion. Is there a single reason why I shouldn't?


YES IT GETS YA DRUNK!, But on a serious note I know what you mean. Etoh as the oxygenate in fuel.


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## Ox Eye (Dec 17, 2007)

Hereâ€™s an interesting article. The author is apparently not a fan of the RFS, but believes some ethanol **** will have a place even without the RFS.

*"Even with the decline in oil prices, ethanol is the most cost-effective octane booster. The era of 10 percent ethanol gasoline, E10, as America's most common transportation fuel isn't going to end if the RFS is repealed."
*

Excuse me, but an oxygenate with the potential to destroy engines, no matter how cost-effective, is still ****!

But, I am beyond the RFS mandate. Clearly, when so many other states are far better supplied with E0 than Texas, it's not the RFS that's behind it. And, when several major Texas players in the gas sales game are not able to get it, lack of demand is not a factor, either. Something else is going on. And, while I may be the Lone Stranger on that, here, I'd sure like to know what that something is. So, that's where I'm at.


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## V-Bottom (Jun 16, 2007)

$31.15 BBL now


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## chumy (Jul 13, 2012)

V-Bottom said:


> $31.15 BBL now


Where you plan on going to celebrate?


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## Gemini8 (Jun 29, 2013)

chumy said:


> Where you plan on going to celebrate?


Don't encourage the troll


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## sotexhookset (Jun 4, 2011)

^^^ yea. He has a bus pass so I don't understand why he gets so excited. We're paying for his transportation anyway.


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## iamatt (Aug 28, 2012)

Silent layoffs at CVX. Wife got caught in first round. More coming, wait until they sell the leases. Going to take 15 years to recover. Pull the ripcord and nothing but pots and pans

Sent from my A0001 using Tapatalk


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## Robert.Parson (Sep 7, 2004)

iamatt said:


> Silent layoffs at CVX. Wife got caught in first round. More coming, wait until they sell the leases. Going to take 15 years to recover. Pull the ripcord and nothing but pots and pans
> 
> Sent from my A0001 using Tapatalk


Sorry to hear that
I heard that Baker Hughes had some layoffs last week, but no one will confirm.
at least the stocks are coming back up (along with WTI) this morning amid my prayers that "I" won't be next on their list...
WTI bumped $32 about an hour ago....


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## Its Catchy (Apr 10, 2014)

iamatt said:


> Silent layoffs at CVX. Wife got caught in first round. More coming, wait until they sell the leases. Going to take 15 years to recover. Pull the ripcord and nothing but pots and pans
> 
> Sent from my A0001 using Tapatalk


It only took 18 months for oil to drop from 114.00 a barrel to 31.00. It can go the other direction just as quick. As a matter of fact I am thinking about scrounging every penny I can and buying WFT, SLB, and HAL and maybe Kinder Morgan later this year, maybe July.

The demand is still there it's the supply that needs to shrink.


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## iamatt (Aug 28, 2012)

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/real-estate-oil-history-repeats-itself-james-jamie-rector

Sent from my A0001 using Tapatalk


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## poppadawg (Aug 10, 2007)

Real estate, restaurants, truck sales, boats, retail, and every thing else that people spend money on. It is all going to take a hit. Out of work and nervous people don't spend money.


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## Johnboat (Jun 7, 2004)

*December permits.*

Good chart to understand where they are. Take out Midland area and it really looks grim. Most of us probably don't work the Midland area so its worse than it looks.

http://www.guidrynews.com/story.aspx?id=1000074550


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## MarkU (Jun 3, 2013)

Its Catchy said:


> It only took 18 months for oil to drop from 114.00 a barrel to 31.00. It can go the other direction just as quick. As a matter of fact I am thinking about scrounging every penny I can and buying WFT, SLB, and HAL and maybe Kinder Morgan later this year, maybe July.
> 
> The demand is still there it's the supply that needs to shrink.


I agree. I'm just waiting for the "Call", to pull trigger.


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## BayouBonsaiMan (Apr 14, 2009)

TexasVines said:


> the fungibility of oil makes a "dumping case" impossible to win and of no meaning for the USA
> 
> 1.the USa actually does not get a great deal of oil from the middle east we get most of it from Canada and Mexico and South America
> 
> ...


Okay, maybe they are not technically dumping, but they are selling way below long term value forcing higher cost producers to shut down causing worldwide economic slowdown to prove a point. They are bringing in less revenue for their people due this high production. I agree this is the way free markets work, but surely oil price, tobacco, sugar, steel , alcohol,drug
have been manipulated to some extent by collaborating producers, politicans
in the past. Oil going down as I type. I see this tailspin in oil threatening world ecomnony as very dangerous and in my opinion more important than all other issues combined! Good Luck!


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## Wado (May 15, 2011)

*Benjamin Franklin*

Kind of off the subject but some people wonder how all this stuff from across the pond gets here so quick. Look at this beast, 18,000 containers stacked on it. The three businesses I have been in my short time on Earth have been upset by overseas influence, can't seem to get a break. I had a few drinks with a young man that was doing directional drilling and was trying to find a rig a few months back. He said he was going back to college to get a Bachelors degree in business. I asked him what do you want to do, maybe be a teacher or sell insurance and investments? He said "No, I want to be a camp cook and guide down south!" Go figure.
http://www.cma-cgm.com/news/1023/cma-cgm-deploys-largest-cargo-vessel-ever-to-call-at-a-u-s-port


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## Gemini8 (Jun 29, 2013)

http://abc13.com/news/bp-to-cut-4000-jobs-amid-oil-price-plunge/1155881/

LONDON, England -- 
Oil company BP is cutting some 4,000 jobs in exploration and production over the next two years amid sharp drops in the price of crude.

The cuts in BP's upstream business globally will include the loss of some 600 jobs in the North Sea.

The cost-cutting announced Tuesday comes as the price of oil dropped to a 12 year-low near $31 a barrel. Part of the decline is due to concern over a drop in demand in China, which is depressing commodity prices worldwide.

Company officials began notifying employees of the action in town hall meetings in Scotland.

Mark Thomas, regional president for BP North Sea, says in a statement that because of toughening market conditions "we need to take specific steps to ensure our business remains competitive and robust."


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## Tortuga (May 21, 2004)

Saw one of the 'experts' on NBR last night saying it could go on down to around $18. Sure hope he was wrong.. 

Tightening our belts here at the double-wide. Royalties down about 60 % so far..Been down there before in the 80s and several times before but always bounced back up. 'Thinning the herd'..so to speak right now.. Oil bidness ain't for the faint of heart...

Glad I got a 'side business' that puts beans on the table...

Pray for an 'inferno' in the Middle East for the Geezer...and Mrs. Geezer...


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## V-Bottom (Jun 16, 2007)

$ 30.26 BBL now


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## Gemini8 (Jun 29, 2013)

V-Bottom said:


> $ 30.26 BBL now


You don't have to keep posting every there is a change. People who give a sh!t about the economy are very aware of what is happening. It is you who has no clue how this impacts the rest of the us that don't live inside your delusional bubble.


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## Its Catchy (Apr 10, 2014)

Wado said:


> Kind of off the subject but some people wonder how all this stuff from across the pond gets here so quick. Look at this beast, 18,000 containers stacked on it. The three businesses I have been in my short time on Earth have been upset by overseas influence, can't seem to get a break. I had a few drinks with a young man that was doing directional drilling and was trying to find a rig a few months back. He said he was going back to college to get a Bachelors degree in business. I asked him what do you want to do, maybe be a teacher or sell insurance and investments? He said "No, I want to be a camp cook and guide down south!" Go figure.
> http://www.cma-cgm.com/news/1023/cma-cgm-deploys-largest-cargo-vessel-ever-to-call-at-a-u-s-port


A long time ago I used to catch crabs commercially for a living. I had a decent life, never got rich but I was not poor. Then NAFTA came along and cheap Mexican crab meat crushed domestic production. I was bitter our government did not offer the domestic producers protection. But then I came to realize that that is exactly how the free market works and it is great for the consumer.

Find a way to compete or get run over. Now it's happened to me again in the oilfield. It kind of sucks but you got to compete on a worldwide stage. Overall it is healthy.


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## Wado (May 15, 2011)

The crushing blow was when Clinton lifted trade sanctions before he exited The Casa Blanca. Chinese pond shrimp were sitting all over the world in containers waiting for some fools to buy the contaminated crud. Guess where they dumped them, right in our back door. I docked my boat right behind Bama Seafood ( at the time the biggest supplier for Red Lobster) and watched them thaw tons of the stuff and repackage it. You better not get a shrimp horn in you from one, pure poison. I did get a subsidy for that year, I believe a whopping seven cents a pound. Now that was textbook dumping no if's and's and but's. Sure glad I kept all my records but I know first hand a bunch of folks that dummied some up. And then here comes Mosbacher. Yea, it's great for the consumer, pile up a big plate of Chinese shrimp at the all you can eat buffet and hope all is well. Those antibiotics in the ponds are good for you. Water under the bridge baby.


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## duckmania (Jun 3, 2014)

We use to own some rental properties in Corpus and Alice. I grew up down there and most of my family was in the oil business, drilling, so I saw the wild swings especially the mid eighties. I told my wife when oil was doing pretty well we should dump those properties, we did so back during a little drilling boom in the mid nineties. 
Most of my family is long gone from that area but I still go over to Alice to hunt family land, I hate to see what is happening down there, those folks kind of get on their feet and then it hits the skids.
Like Tortuga said, the oil business is not for the faint of heart.


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## bassguitarman (Nov 29, 2005)

Royal Bank of Scotland - Investors face a â€œcataclysmic yearâ€ where stock markets could fall by up to 20% and oil could slump to $16 a barrel, economists at the Royal Bank of Scotland have warned, advising their clients to sell everything except high quality bonds.

http://www.theguardian.com/business...head-of-stock-market-crash-say-rbs-economists


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## Robert.Parson (Sep 7, 2004)

Wado said:


> Kind of off the subject but some people wonder how all this stuff from across the pond gets here so quick. Look at this beast, 18,000 containers stacked on it. The three businesses I have been in my short time on Earth have been upset by overseas influence, can't seem to get a break. I had a few drinks with a young man that was doing directional drilling and was trying to find a rig a few months back. He said he was going back to college to get a Bachelors degree in business. I asked him what do you want to do, maybe be a teacher or sell insurance and investments? He said "No, I want to be a camp cook and guide down south!" Go figure.
> http://www.cma-cgm.com/news/1023/cma-cgm-deploys-largest-cargo-vessel-ever-to-call-at-a-u-s-port


Holy cow....
Tonnage:	178,228 GT
........116,356 NT
........185,000 DWT
Length:	399.2 m (1,310 ft)
Beam:	54 m (177 ft)
Height:	60 m (197 ft), 70 m (230 ft) over antennae.[2]
Draft:	16 m (52 ft)
Depth:	30.2 m (99 ft)
Installed power:	MAN B&W diesel engine, (63,910 kW)
Propulsion:	. Single shaft; screw propeller Solid
Speed:	. 22.9 knots (42.4 km/h; 26.4 mph)

Dayum...


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## MARSHALLLANE (May 26, 2010)

What? No government bailout? I thought that was yalls presidents answer to problems these days! 

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G870A using Tapatalk


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## sotexhookset (Jun 4, 2011)

Gemini8 said:


> You don't have to keep posting every there is a change. People who give a sh!t about the economy are very aware of what is happening. It is you who has no clue how this impacts the rest of the us that don't live inside your delusional bubble.


Sure he's celebrating with his government grilled cheese sammich and tomato soup. He has no skin in the game because he lives off of taxpayers anyway so he just runs his welfare mouth to get a rise out of us, nothing more.


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## Jamaica Cove (Apr 2, 2008)

Ox Eye said:


> To the experts:
> 
> Wouldnâ€™t Oil Companies be a bit better off if they sold an additional 18 billion gallons of gas during the year?


That helps only the majors, like XOM and Chevron. The 'typical oil company' is not in the refining or downstream biz-they get posted price in the field and see not a penny of 'refined products' income, so the answer is yes, it would help the refiners but not the exploration companies.


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## Jamaica Cove (Apr 2, 2008)

sotexhookset said:


> ^^^ yea. He has a bus pass so I don't understand why he gets so excited. We're paying for his transportation anyway.


Helll, we prolly pay for his internet and cell phone thanks to Obama. He whines all the time but gets free WIC cheese to go with his whine.


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## Johnboat (Jun 7, 2004)

*True. So...*



Jamaica Cove said:


> That helps only the majors, like XOM and Chevron. The 'typical oil company is not inthe refining or downstream biz-they get posted price in the field and see not a penny of 'refined products' income, so the answer is yes, it would help the refiners but not the exploration companies.


True. So maybe the majors have the formula to survive. Maybe the large independent E&P companies should acquire, be acquired or merge with refining/processing and retail marketing companies.


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## Jamaica Cove (Apr 2, 2008)

Johnboat said:


> True. So maybe the majors have the formula to survive. Maybe the large independent E&P companies should acquire, be acquired or merge with refining/processing and retail marketing companies.


Wrong. XOM/Chevron/ConocoPhillips/BP compete on the world market-so does my 6 person oil company and the large independents like Anadarko, Noble, EOG all are suffering.

Do you realize the permitting process to even attempt to construct a refinery takes YEARS, plus BILLIONS of capital-who the hell is going to lend you that money and how the hell will you even pay the interest since it would take 5-10 years to even construct a refinery IF you could get the necessary State and Federal Permits as well as any EPA permit? ****, the EPA now REQUIRES air monitoring at each GD wellsite.

Who's going to 'merge' with say a Goodrich Oil, Southwestern Energy, EOG when all are in a current NEGATIVE cash flow barely surviving. You can **** well expect to see the massive layoffs, leading to massive housing market crash and massive loss of consumer spending, so ALL industries will in 6-12 months suffer a major recession that will make 2008 look like good times. When the oil economy collapses as it has (and hasn't even hit bottom yet), who buys cars, new houses, furniture, hires construction to remodel, put in pools, buys ranches, second homes-tax bases will suffer-they already are-look at Louisiana and Texas and every oil producing State-all are in the red. Banks will fail due to bad loans on houses and made to companies-and taxpayers will bail them out under FDIC rules but only a few will survive. It is a domino effect and the first domino already fell about 6 months ago. No other country's economy is in good shape that can help stabilize prices. Saudi is in deep **** and so are the other OPEC countries-they rely 100% on oil-they have no other business to rely on.

The young kids graduating with Engineering degrees will be hoping to get any job-even at Walmart. The steel biz will implode since new cars won't be bought, so Detroit's automakers will suffer and the entire world economy will be in the toity-hell, Russia is in an economic depression, China is also-and so are we regardless what Obama said last night.

Expect suicide rates to soar, divorce to soar, foreclosures and homelessness to soar. Expect a DEPRESSION like you've never seen.

As a part owner in my company, I am gladly taking a 20% salary cut and my company doesn't drill the costly shale play stuff, so our finding costs per barrel is about half what it costs Anadarko/Pioneer/EOG/SWN to find a bbl of oil, but we are looking at a negative cash flow, so we must lower G&A costs, cut all expenses to a minimum and continue to develop viable prospects to drill that can attain a ROI or we will also be toast. I have no 401K, no club memberships, no out of town excursions to any 'annual meetings' and take about 5 days a year off at most over the last 6 years. I come in on weekends if needed, work 10-12 hour days and do whatever it takes and will continue to do so. Folks that never experienced a 'downturn' are screwed/lost-us that have over the last 35 years know now is the time to sacrifice to make sure we survive by doing whatever it takes to make a profit. We do not control world markets and must do our best to continue under constraints we cannot control.


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## Johnboat (Jun 7, 2004)

*I don't make this stuff up JC*

This is a few month's old, but worth a review. Remember Exxon acquired XTO. From what I read that deal was questionable because Exxon paid too much and should have waited....until maybe now.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatsp...t-for-exxon-mobil/2/#2715e4857a0b6247c09f43fb

I was speaking of large independent E&P companies. I agree with your personal business plan. My law business is mostly e & p. I have been lean and mean since the last bust. Just me and a cheap office and paid-for office equipment. Last year I heard second hand that a young landman thought my office was old and dated. Well, he is not working in his shiny building anymore. Good luck to you and to me too.


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## Ernest (May 21, 2004)

Lets not get carried away here. 

Low oil prices (within reason) are a net positive to the US economy. Low oil prices are a net negative to Texas, as they are to some other O&G states. Low oil prices are a big net negative to places like Houston. But, for the economy of the US as a whole, lower oil prices are a net positive. 

For example, the "Reagan Recovery" occurred in large part during a cheap oil period. 

But, as they say, the public perception is that a recession is when your neighbor loses his job. A depression is when you lose your job. Neither is the actual definition of recession or depression.


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## Jamaica Cove (Apr 2, 2008)

OK Ernest-Detroit has cheap housing but how do ya get a loan with no yob? 

As far as carried away, I don't think my comments are 'carried away'-you're 50, so you missed the 1983 era of no jobs, foreclosures and tough times. In 99, I recall getting $7.77/bbl, while my operating costs stayed where I needed $12-15/bbl, so I pretty much went in the red for a year. I expect the same and I recall when all the GD yankees moved here and farked up Texas and we all had bumper stickers that said "If you're the last one from Detroit, I hope you turned the lights out". Steel plants shuttered and many closed, so more **** Yankees came here and clogged the roads and were in some ways similar to the 'Trina evacuees. 

Hope I'm wrong, but all reports say we are truly like a goat in a Muslim Camp.


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## Ernest (May 21, 2004)

The problems with the steel industry are well documented. 

In summary, in the 50's, we had 650K employees making steel. By the 80's the labor required was reduced to a fraction of the 650K employees. So, it was 3+ retirees per worker, defined benefit plans, and union operations. Domestic steel simply priced themselves out of the market, and relied upon import restrictions and tariffs to artificially increase the price of domestic steel. Domestic steel largely recovered by significant reductions in labor hours per unit. Replacing men with machines. And, dumping union contracts in BK. 

Sound familiar? It should. We replayed this game again with the auto industry recently. 

The facts on economic growth and oil prices are clear. US GDP growth was negative to begin 1982, and then turned positive. The growth continued thru 1991. 

Oil peaked in Q1 1981, and then peaked again in at the end of Q3/beginning of Q4 in 1990. It bottomed out in July 1986. Then as now, cheap oil is a net positive for the US economy as a whole. 

And yes, I lived thru those times and remember them quite well. The supply side shock of high oil prices in the 70's and its effect on the economy has been extensively studied. Just as the drop in oil prices in the 80's and how it benefited the US economy has been studied. The data is objectively verifiable. 

Employment levels or job availability is not the measure of economic growth. That is, unless you are operating in a semi socialist system. In the capitalist system, the calculation of GDP does not even consider employment levels. Its a profit based system, not a full employment based system.


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## Jamaica Cove (Apr 2, 2008)

In the 80s, the Oil Biz took several 'hits': 82-83, 86 and 89. Folks were offing themselves, police escorted people out. I was a CPR instructor and would get called to "Personnel" at start of work, butt pucker factor was so strong, a sledge would be needed for driving a 16 penny nail, but when I said "Oh, I'm fired, huh?", the HR Manager said "Nope, we just need you in case someone has a heart attack", so I sat there while a PoPo played with his gun (I swear he seemed like he wanted to shoot someone that day). That was '83 and I worked for a large integrated oil and gas company-I got that call several more times-never saw that same officer -and was glad I didn't-hopefully he found a new career that didn't involve guns-he was sorta a strange one compared to the many other policemen and deputies I've met.


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## Kenner 23 (Sep 14, 2009)

Jamaica Cove said:


> OK Ernest-Detroit has cheap housing but how do ya get a loan with no yob?
> 
> As far as carried away, I don't think my comments are 'carried away'-you're 50, so you missed the 1983 era of no jobs, foreclosures and tough times. In 99, I recall getting $7.77/bbl, while my operating costs stayed where I needed $12-15/bbl, so I pretty much went in the red for a year. I expect the same and I recall when all the GD yankees moved here and farked up Texas and we all had bumper stickers that said "If you're the last one from Detroit, I hope you turned the lights out". Steel plants shuttered and many closed, so more **** Yankees came here and clogged the roads and were in some ways similar to the 'Trina evacuees.
> 
> Hope I'm wrong, but all reports say we are truly like a goat in a Muslim Camp.


JC, if the erl bidness ends you can always go to work for Hallmark designing their greeting cards.:rotfl:


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## Jamaica Cove (Apr 2, 2008)

R Little said:


> JC, if the erl bidness ends you can always go to work for Hallmark designing their greeting cards.:rotfl:


Please splain-that one went over my haid, unless you mean I draw Muslim Greeting Cards-but they'd likely consider a goat in a garter and stockings as either super sexy or ***** and I doubt Hallmark sells many greeting cards in the Middle East.


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## batmaninja (Jul 15, 2010)

These are 2 slides from 2 different forecasting deals, with 2 different ideas on the future. 

The first one says Houston is fine and equates this oil blimp to the dot.com bust in San Fran. SF had a few years where real estate prices fell about 5%, but then they came roaring back 75%. Dot.com are still around and SF has bounced back big time. 

Second one says Houston is still heavy in oil and that other sectors will feel oils pain. Expect a 2 year correction, but Texas is still a great place to be long term.


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## Category6 (Nov 21, 2007)

I have been noticing gas prices going down, is that somehow related to these oil prices you're talking about?


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## Ox Eye (Dec 17, 2007)

Jamaica Cove said:


> That helps only the majors, like XOM and Chevron. The 'typical oil company' is not in the refining or downstream biz-they get posted price in the field and see not a penny of 'refined products' income, so the answer is yes, it would help the refiners but not the exploration companies.


Thanks for the reply. But, it doesnâ€™t seem to really matter to anyone.


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## 24Buds (Dec 5, 2008)

well, below $30....


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## Hullahopper (May 24, 2004)

Cheap gas!

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mark...op-sharply/ar-BBonBNb?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=up97dhp


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## chumy (Jul 13, 2012)

Hullahopper said:


> Cheap gas!
> 
> http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mark...op-sharply/ar-BBonBNb?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=up97dhp


Attention V-bottom!!! Please look into moving up to Michigan.


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## Cut n Shoot (Dec 11, 2015)

Well it's going to get bad with Iran promising 3m bbls/day to hit the market.


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## Trouthappy (Jun 12, 2008)

Here's a report that the Koch Brothers are offering $1.50 a barrel for North Dakota Sour.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...kota-crude-oil-that-s-worth-less-than-nothing

Apparently there are a lot of junk bonds tied up in this industry, so it will have a ripple effect in the economy.

http://www.salon.com/2016/01/19/is_..._need_to_know_about_the_markets_oil_collapse/


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## bigfishtx (Jul 17, 2007)

Cut n Shoot said:


> Well it's going to get bad with Iran promising 3m bbls/day to hit the market.


Been selling it to India and China. It will help them because they will get it at a higher price now, but, no new oil will actually hit the market.


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## Tortuga (May 21, 2004)

Ain't life grand ????......:headknock


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## Trouthappy (Jun 12, 2008)

Going to be a lot of used boats on the market. Nobody needs a $50K bay boat to catch trout. Heck, a jonboat and 25 horse will take you anywhere on the Texas coast when the weather isn't blowing. Also the jetties and reservoirs. I even ran to the 6-mile rigs off the beach last summer when we had that fine weather. My bad...On my longest runs I burned four to five gallons of gas. If I owned a big boat I would sell it now while people have boat-buying fever, thanks to the Houston Boat Show. They got guys catching plenty of ling and kings from plastic kayaks at Port Aransas...a jonboat will do that too.


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## MarkU (Jun 3, 2013)

Trouthappy said:


> Going to be a lot of used boats on the market. Nobody needs a $50K bay boat to catch trout. Heck, a jonboat and 25 horse will take you anywhere on the Texas coast when the weather isn't blowing. Also the jetties and reservoirs. I even ran to the 6-mile rigs off the beach last summer when we had that fine weather. My bad...On my longest runs I burned four to five gallons of gas. If I owned a big boat I would sell it now while people have boat-buying fever, thanks to the Houston Boat Show. They got guys catching plenty of ling and kings from plastic kayaks at Port Aransas...a jonboat will do that too.


Here we go again... Listen to Trouthappy, he knows everything, about everything. And everyone is stupid, if they chose a different path/boat than him.


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## Its Catchy (Apr 10, 2014)

I know there is a glut on the market of Harley's, Boat's and Extended Cab 4x4's caused by the downturn in the oilfield.

And signs the very strong bull market in Real Estate in Houston is coming to an end as well.

I wonder how many people who have lost their jobs in the oilfield and found new ones in a different industry will come back to the patch when things get better?


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## skinnywaterfishin (Jul 1, 2015)

Its Catchy said:


> I know there is a glut on the market of Harley's, Boat's and Extended Cab 4x4's caused by the downturn in the oilfield.
> 
> And signs the very strong bull market in Real Estate in Houston is coming to an end as well.
> 
> I wonder how many people who have lost their jobs in the oilfield and found new ones in a different industry will come back to the patch when things get better?


No question real estate of all types will be slowing with the downturn in the energy biz. Raw land prices have tracked oil for decades. I expect the price per acre across Texas to be dropping like a rock.


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## fishingcacher (Mar 29, 2008)

I think we were about 35 miles out and I saw 5 fishermen in a bass boat. That would be fine in calm weather but I have also seen two guys in a small boat in Galveston bay when an unexpected front came in and the water got really dicey and there was no place to dock due to the rocky bulkheads. That one trip in a small boat might be your last trip.


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## chumy (Jul 13, 2012)

MarkU said:


> Here we go again... Listen to Trouthappy, he knows everything, about everything. And everyone is stupid, if they chose a different path/boat than him.


I bet happy trout turns back around a lot at the end of the jetties. Even on a calm day with an incoming tide. To each his own.


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## capone (Feb 25, 2013)

Trouthappy said:


> Going to be a lot of used boats on the market. Nobody needs a $50K bay boat to catch trout. Heck, a jonboat and 25 horse will take you anywhere on the Texas coast when the weather isn't blowing. Also the jetties and reservoirs. I even ran to the 6-mile rigs off the beach last summer when we had that fine weather. My bad...On my longest runs I burned four to five gallons of gas. If I owned a big boat I would sell it now while people have boat-buying fever, thanks to the Houston Boat Show. They got guys catching plenty of ling and kings from plastic kayaks at Port Aransas...a jonboat will do that too.


So you are "that guy" who kills my day because we had to drag your sinking boat back inside.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## WilliamH (May 21, 2004)

http://www.texassaltwaterfishingmagazine.com/fishing/joe-richard/page156.html

http://www.texassaltwaterfishingmagazine.com/fishing/launching-surf/subpage3105.html


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## MARSHALLLANE (May 26, 2010)

bigfishtx said:


> Been selling it to India and China. It will help them because they will get it at a higher price now, but, no new oil will actually hit the market.


I heard they were selling to Russia also. Any truth to that?

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G870A using Tapatalk


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## sotexhookset (Jun 4, 2011)

WilliamH said:


> http://www.texassaltwaterfishingmagazine.com/fishing/joe-richard/page156.html
> 
> http://www.texassaltwaterfishingmagazine.com/fishing/launching-surf/subpage3105.html


We know. That's why I haven't bought an article in over a year when before I bought every one and kept most since summer of 05' when I discovered it. Smartass lib know it all that just seems to stir up chit on purpose then crawfish away laughing, great magazine of course but they don't need my $4 a month.


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## WilliamH (May 21, 2004)

sotexhookset said:


> We know. That's why I haven't bought an article in over a year when before I bought every one and kept most since summer of 05' when I discovered it. Smartass lib know it all that just seems to stir up chit on purpose then crawfish away laughing, great magazine of course but they don't need my $4 a month.


His political views aside, he does know a thing or two about saltwater fishing; Both inshore and offshore.


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## sotexhookset (Jun 4, 2011)

Never said he didn't after I figured who he is on here (as he hides it so well and I'm sure he knows why or has been told to). True fisherman actually, I just don't buy into his bullchit and have not/will not buy another TSFM while he's penning for them. My choice to agree the socialist writer can fish and my choice to not buy a magazine I enjoyed. Simple enough huh.


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## dastappa (May 25, 2015)

I'm just a dumb operator, looking to buy a house around March. Started looking before oil crashed. 

Question is, if my job is steady. Is this a good time to buy, or will it take longer for the housing market to be affected.


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## 24Buds (Dec 5, 2008)

dastappa said:


> I'm just a dumb operator, looking to buy a house around March. Started looking before oil crashed.
> 
> Question is, if my job is steady. Is this a good time to buy, or will it take longer for the housing market to be affected.


I am no expert, but I would guess places like the Energy Corridor and around the refineries will be hit. Not right away, but in a few months. 6-12?

I love cheap gas, but this will be painful for a lot of people. Sooner or later, this will affect a lot more folks then just directly tied to O&G.

Just my opinion.


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## batmaninja (Jul 15, 2010)

Depends on pricing and new versus used. Houses $500K+ have been hit the hardest so far. $250-450K is still pretty strong in the right areas. I would wait 6 months for home prices to go down, but I think interest rates will likely go the other way.

http://www.houstonchronicle.com/bus...769994.php?t=944fcc9c55&cmpid=twitter-premium


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## Its Catchy (Apr 10, 2014)

dastappa said:


> I'm just a dumb operator, looking to buy a house around March. Started looking before oil crashed.
> 
> Question is, if my job is steady. Is this a good time to buy, or will it take longer for the housing market to be affected.


According to HAR home sales in Houston have been down 3 straight months. I would wait 6 months or so if possible.


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## wickedinhere (Oct 4, 2004)

I am not an expert on oil and gas but i do receive some oil royalties and have gotten a few letters in the mail telling me that a few of these company's have filed bankruptcy. That being said crown drilling has setup a rig and have started drilling about 1/8 mile from my house i live in the middle of some timberland. I am in the pool and was surprised that they are drilling with oil prices so low. I would imagine only the big company's will still be around when the dust settles.


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## dastappa (May 25, 2015)

I was afraid it would take a couple months to see a reflection. My apartment lease is up at the end of March so waiting 6 months isn't ideal. Plus like mentioned the interest rates goes up which defeats getting the house for a little cheaper. 

Thanks for the replies.


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## The1ThatGotAway (Jun 24, 2009)

dastappa said:


> I'm just a dumb operator, looking to buy a house around March. Started looking before oil crashed.
> 
> Question is, if my job is steady. Is this a good time to buy, or will it take longer for the housing market to be affected.





dastappa said:


> I was afraid it would take a couple months to see a reflection. My apartment lease is up at the end of March so waiting 6 months isn't ideal. Plus like mentioned the interest rates goes up which defeats getting the house for a little cheaper.
> 
> Thanks for the replies.


You're absolutely right, take the cheap money now rather than wait to save a little on the house. There's nothing like a 2.9 interest rate on a house.


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## Cut n Shoot (Dec 11, 2015)

Shell announced 10,000 layoffs today. To be completed by year end.Paid 1.54 at Shell today.


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## dastappa (May 25, 2015)

Cut n Shoot said:


> Shell announced 10,000 layoffs today. To be completed by year end.Paid 1.54 at Shell today.


That's scary, shell is a well established played. Not some smal mom and pop place. Let's hope exxon isn't next.


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## prokat (Jul 17, 2010)

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2016/01/20/texas-oil-prices-boomtowns-crash/79086400/


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## ChuChu (Jan 23, 2010)

You want to see a sad town, come to Gonzales. The city and school district believed the fools that said the boom would last 20 years, and committed to spending money they will never see. A new event center, to be paid for with motel taxes, a 2 million dollar building for a new library to be paid from sales tax, a new tax payer funded school day care center for 6 million dollars that would come from increased taxes on oil production.
The motels are now running about 40% occupancy, sales tax is dropping like a rock, all those new people to fill the schools are now gone, and the oil production taxes are about 45% of predictions. But the boom will last 20 years. Yeah, sure it will.


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## TxDuSlayer (Jun 24, 2006)

ChuChu said:


> You want to see a sad town, come to Gonzales. The city and school district believed the fools that said the boom would last 20 years, and committed to spending money they will never see. A new event center, to be paid for with motel taxes, a 2 million dollar building for a new library to be paid from sales tax, a new tax payer funded school day care center for 6 million dollars that would come from increased taxes on oil production.
> The motels are now running about 40% occupancy, sales tax is dropping like a rock, all those new people to fill the schools are now gone, and the oil production taxes are about 45% of predictions. But the boom will last 20 years. Yeah, sure it will.


Yep, I watched the whole thing from start to finish. I knew that boom wasn't gonna last. Was down there last weekend most of the oil rigs were down, most of the oil workers were gone. The RV park by the roping arena completly vacant. Am guessing all thoses landowners royalties are dropping as well? Maybe it will open up some more hunting land.


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## Jungle_Jim (Nov 16, 2007)

ChuChu said:


> You want to see a sad town, come to Gonzales. The city and school district believed the fools that said the boom would last 20 years, and committed to spending money they will never see. A new event center, to be paid for with motel taxes, a 2 million dollar building for a new library to be paid from sales tax, a new tax payer funded school day care center for 6 million dollars that would come from increased taxes on oil production.
> The motels are now running about 40% occupancy, sales tax is dropping like a rock, all those new people to fill the schools are now gone, and the oil production taxes are about 45% of predictions. But the boom will last 20 years. Yeah, sure it will.


Did they fix the pot holes in the roads? I bet they didn't. The people running small town Texas are the same ilk as run the US. They build monuments to sportsball while the roads get worse. My city is guilty too.


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## Salty-Noob (Jun 9, 2015)

Cut n Shoot said:


> Shell announced 10,000 layoffs today. To be completed by year end.Paid 1.54 at Shell today.


Due to Merger with BG Group........


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## prokat (Jul 17, 2010)

I guess the locals from cuero are glad they got a new heb outa the deal and better gas prices,couldn't believe how they were gouging people


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## Jolly Roger (May 21, 2004)

Jungle_Jim said:


> Did they fix the pot holes in the roads? I bet they didn't. The people running small town Texas are the same ilk as run the US. They build monuments to sportsball while the roads get worse. My city is guilty too.


Not all city/counties are like that. In East Texas most counties make the oil companies pay for new roads they use or the oil company has to fix the roads to the satisfaction of the county. These counties/citys have been thru many booms and bust, they do not spend money like drunk sailors.


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## Its Catchy (Apr 10, 2014)

Two things I have learned about the oilfield.

When everyone starts throwing the quote "its going to last 20 years" around. Go into cash lock down mode and save every penny. Because the chit is about to hit the fan.

The inverse is also true. When everyone says "oil wont bounce back for years" invest all the money you started saving when you heard the "last 20 years quote".


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## ChuChu (Jan 23, 2010)

Jungle_Jim said:


> Did they fix the pot holes in the roads? I bet they didn't. The people running small town Texas are the same ilk as run the US. They build monuments to sportsball while the roads get worse. My city is guilty too.


Depends on who you talk to. The city re-surfaces 1 street a year. Last year St, Vincent, this year Sydler. The rest of the streets go to pot holes unless you write a letter to the editor and embarrass the city.


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## ChuChu (Jan 23, 2010)

gom1 said:


> I guess the locals from cuero are glad they got a new heb outa the deal and better gas prices,couldn't believe how they were gouging people


That HEB was promised to Cuero about 10 years ago. Then HEB and GVEC got into a land swap that slowed the new store for years.


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## ChuChu (Jan 23, 2010)

When the Eagle-Ford boom first started and the money was rolling in, I begged the city council to show restraint that for every boom there is a bust. I grew up in the oilfield and saw many booms and many busts. But I was laughed out of the city chambers because "this boom will last 20 years". 
The big problem now is how to pay for things that are already committed. A lot of tax payers are out of work now.

The RV park at JB Wells park was built for the high school and junior high school rodeos. We had to provide 300 RV sites to satisfy the contracts. Renting them to the oil field workers was just extra income. The oilfield renters knew they would have to vacate when the big rodeos came to town.

The city got in trouble by renting them as cheap as they did, the private RV park owners forced them to up their rent to a level equal to the private parks.


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## poppadawg (Aug 10, 2007)

Southwestern is cutting 40% of it's workforce.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/south...0aG5zBGNvbG8DYmYxBHBvcwMxBHZ0aWQDBHNlYwNzYw--


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## SSST (Jun 9, 2011)

What I can't figure out is Cuero has 2 more big hotels coming up as we speak, that just puzzles the **** outta me every time I drive by. I have nothing against Cuero, but I doubt there are that many "tourists" to keep them 1/4 full.


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## POC Fishin' Gal (Nov 20, 2009)

If you drive through Victoria there is one place on the overpass that you can count 15 motels in the space of a minute. That many visitors to Victoria?


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## MarkU (Jun 3, 2013)

SSST said:


> What I can't figure out is Cuero has 2 more big hotels coming up as we speak, that just puzzles the **** outta me every time I drive by. I have nothing against Cuero, but I doubt there are that many "tourists" to keep them 1/4 full.


Low interest rates. And the "Build it, and they will come" reasoning.


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## Red3Fish (Jun 4, 2004)

I don't know if true, but I heard a rumor, some of the oil companies, leased up most of the rooms in the new hotels for a year down south to house their employees? If true and they go broke, might put some of those hotels in a big bind.

Later
R3F


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## bigfishtx (Jul 17, 2007)

SSST said:


> What I can't figure out is Cuero has 2 more big hotels coming up as we speak, that just puzzles the **** outta me every time I drive by. I have nothing against Cuero, but I doubt there are that many "tourists" to keep them 1/4 full.


They have halted construction on them.


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## Tortuga (May 21, 2004)

ChuChu said:


> That HEB was promised to Cuero about 10 years ago. Then HEB and GVEC got into a land swap that slowed the new store for years.


HEB is not bashful about shutting one down if it is not making money. This year they opened a new one about five blocks from us...and shut one down about six blocks further away....$$$$$


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## ChuChu (Jan 23, 2010)

Three years ago, Gonzales had three motels. We now have eight. Two years ago they were all full. Not counting all the "man houses". A room at the Holiday Inn Express ran $249. Now the occupancy rate is about 40% and room rates are falling. But, we still don't have a decent restaurant. If you don't like tacos, drive to Luling.


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## ChuChu (Jan 23, 2010)

POC Fishin' Gal said:


> If you drive through Victoria there is one place on the overpass that you can count 15 motels in the space of a minute. That many visitors to Victoria?


A lot of those get business from the medical providers.


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## Wado (May 15, 2011)

Cuero needed a new store, I grew up there but left in 1974. I have stopped in the new one twice since it opened, I will be passing by it tomorrow. Kenedy got a new one also, very nice. Devine has a Super Wal Mart, Pearsall has a new HEB but an old Wally World. Pleasanton, oh man it even has a Chinese Buffet and of all things a Chili's, been there a while though. Pleasanton and Floresville are now suburbs of San Antonio it seems. All of these mentioned stores will do just fine. I almost had a heart attack when I saw them building a Family Dollar in Charlotte, talk about a little town. Places like Beeville though blow my mind building so many hotels, way off the Eagleford path but they have white trucks parked around them, heck I have stayed at the Holiday Inn there twice. My wife's niece quit her county job to manage one of them, I couldn't believe it. Another six months though, the scenery might change around those parts. I know the traffic has eased up a bit.


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## SSST (Jun 9, 2011)

ChuChu said:


> Three years ago, Gonzales had three motels. We now have eight. Two years ago they were all full. Not counting all the "man houses". A room at the Holiday Inn Express ran $249. Now the occupancy rate is about 40% and room rates are falling. But, we still don't have a decent restaurant. If you don't like tacos, drive to Luling.


True statement, although i do like Templin's pizza!


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## Wado (May 15, 2011)

*Kloesol's*

My parents used to take us to Kloesel's, drive all the way from Cuero to eat there. I know it's in Moulton but close enough. There is a place outside of Gonzales towards Cuero on the road that runs back to Nixon I think. Kind of a truck stop, I ate there a couple of years ago. Place was packed.


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## POC Fishin' Gal (Nov 20, 2009)

*Victoria*

Sorry, I don't understand "medical" in Victoria. I also don't understand $249. a night. We paid it recently, but was a strange situation.


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## SSST (Jun 9, 2011)

Wado said:


> My parents used to take us to Kloesel's, drive all the way from Cuero to eat there. I know it's in Moulton but close enough. There is a place outside of Gonzales towards Cuero on the road that runs back to Nixon I think. Kind of a truck stop, I ate there a couple of years ago. Place was packed.


Kloesel's is hard to beat, I've ate a lot of ribeyes and some at some pretty high end steak houses and would put a ribeye made by Mr. Kloesel against any of them. We eat lunch there at least once a week, never disappoints. The place you're talking about has been thru quite a few owners the past few years, i don't remember what it is now, Circle G is the building it's in.


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## Smackdaddy53 (Nov 4, 2011)

Reading this thread is like a soap opera. It's all a cycle, the companies that knew it was coming took precautionary measures and the ones that didn't, well they didn't. Of all the silly replies on here ol' Vbottom takes the cake on many levels. Anyone need a weighmaster? 
Bottom line is there is still oil, gas and water coming out of the earth and someone has to keep it coming. 
Here is one of my favorite quotes...


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## ChuChu (Jan 23, 2010)

Oil is at $31 this morning.


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## ChuChu (Jan 23, 2010)

Wado said:


> My parents used to take us to Kloesel's, drive all the way from Cuero to eat there. I know it's in Moulton but close enough. There is a place outside of Gonzales towards Cuero on the road that runs back to Nixon I think. Kind of a truck stop, I ate there a couple of years ago. Place was packed.


Not sure what the name is now, used to be Doc's Roadhouse. Quality of food was up and down. Last time I ate there was five years or so ago. It was terrible. Bad food and bad service.


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## ChuChu (Jan 23, 2010)

POC Fishin' Gal said:


> Sorry, I don't understand "medical" in Victoria. I also don't understand $249. a night. We paid it recently, but was a strange situation.


A lot of people from out of town come to Victoria for medical treatment. The eye center gets patients from Gonzales, and most of the surrounding towns.


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## chumy (Jul 13, 2012)

ChuChu said:


> Oil is at $31 this morning.


You sound a lot like v-bottom, well sort of. :rotfl:


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## ChuChu (Jan 23, 2010)

chumy said:


> You sound a lot like v-bottom, well sort of. :rotfl:


No, I posted something positive, oil is up over $3.00


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## Robert.Parson (Sep 7, 2004)

*22 jan 2016 good oil day*

Thank CHU CHU, 
today WAS a good day for the crude price along with the Oilfield Service Companies stock prices as well...


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## Jolly Roger (May 21, 2004)

gas shortages in the north due to the blizzard reminded everyone just how much of a demand they can be for oil, heating oil and gasoline. Does not take much to drive the price up even with over supply.


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## StinkBait (May 31, 2004)

Wado said:


> My parents used to take us to Kloesel's, drive all the way from Cuero to eat there. I know it's in Moulton but close enough. There is a place outside of Gonzales towards Cuero on the road that runs back to Nixon I think. Kind of a truck stop, I ate there a couple of years ago. Place was packed.





ChuChu said:


> Not sure what the name is now, used to be Doc's Roadhouse. Quality of food was up and down. Last time I ate there was five years or so ago. It was terrible. Bad food and bad service.


Wasn't it originally a Werner's when they built the big new gas station? Not sure why it didn't make it since the one in Shiner has been open so long (I have never eaten at either location) 
And can't forget about the Cost store, too bad it is gone now 

I am in Gonzales quite often, mom's family is from there and we hunt there. I always wonder about how they will be paying for those shiny new hotels now that oil crashed. Bad news for those guys for sure.

And speaking of fixing roads, the county is making a nice mess of 97 between the arena and Bebe. I reckon about the time they get done oil prices will rise and the trucks will show back up and tear the road up again


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