# Dead trout on the horizon -FREEZE



## ddakota (Jun 28, 2009)

We've dodged the bullet for a few years, looks like our luck is running out. Christmas Freeze on the way, long range forecast is for temps in the teens from 23rd till after Christmas. They are forecasting "pipe busting temps" for days. If it falls into the teens and stays there for "days" the coast is in trouble. 

Better go catch your big trout now, she wont be here in 2 weeks.


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## texasislandboy (Apr 28, 2012)

Hope they get deep. We lost alot of snook down here already.


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## Reynolds4 (Jan 18, 2010)

What are the odds of the forecast being correct, especially that far out?


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## Jolly Roger (May 21, 2004)

Reynolds4 said:


> What are the odds of the forecast being correct, especially that far out?


Think the question is what are the odds of a hard freeze on the coast? answer is High. Farmers almanac said it was going to be a cold winter. They are correct, Al Gore is wrong.


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## Zeitgeist (Nov 10, 2011)

I have a friend since elementary school that updates his FB friends on the weather. He is basically a weather nut. This is what he posted this morning:

I was going to hold off on mentioning the potential of record cold weather for Christmas however the long range models continue to indicate a significant blast of Arctic air as the pattern reloads next week. 1983 and 1989 come to mind when looking at some of the models. Still 15 days out and models will change as expected but something to pay attention to over the next week. Especially since many will be traveling and out of town during this potential event.


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## DCAVA (Aug 5, 2013)

Zeitgeist said:


> I have a friend since elementary school that updates his FB friends on the weather. He is basically a weather nut. This is what he posted this morning:
> 
> I was going to hold off on mentioning the potential of record cold weather for Christmas however the long range models continue to indicate a significant blast of Arctic air as the pattern reloads next week. 1983 and 1989 come to mind when looking at some of the models. Still 15 days out and models will change as expected but something to pay attention to over the next week. Especially since many will be traveling and out of town during this potential event.


That is what I was thinking, the freezes of 83' and 89, lots of gamefish died during those freezes, as did the majority of the Valley's citrus crops....

I killed nice bucks on both of those years though, so that gives me something to look forward to....


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## capt. david (Dec 29, 2004)

22	
Sunny. Chilly.	42Â°F	26Â°F	12 mph / N	35%	35Â°F	Low	10% 
Mon, Dec 23	
Sunny. Chilly.	48Â°F	29Â°F	7 mph / N	33%	45Â°F	Low	0% 
Tue, Dec 24	
Sunny. Chilly.	52Â°F	32Â°F	7 mph / NNE	47%	50Â°F	Low	0% 
Wed, Dec 25	
Sunny. Chilly.	52Â°F	32Â°F	7 mph / NW	45%	50Â°F	Low	0% 
Charts
Deep freeze, don't think so


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## shalor57 (Feb 24, 2005)

Long range forecast on weatherunderground and accuweather are not showing this event currently in the forecast...what weather site is calling for this??


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## slapyopappy (Dec 9, 2013)

The sky is falling!!!!

No, really, the weatherman is wrong a lot. No use in worrying about something that's two weeks away, especially something weather related. I'd be a rich man if I had a dime for every time the weather services forecasted 5-10 SSE winds and it ended up blowing 15-20 SW.


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## Bocephus (May 30, 2008)

IF...the forecast comes to pass, the best scenario is for water temps to gradually fall over several days. That gives the fish time to move to find the deeper, warmer water and hopefully end up in a thermocline in which they can survive.

Worse case is rapidly dropping air & water temps where many fish get caught on the flats with not enough time to move. Once they get lethargic, and stunned it's too late.


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## ddakota (Jun 28, 2009)

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ndfd/

its a Forecast, may not be worth the paper its printed on, but computer models show a strong possibility it could happen.

Farmers Almanac said we were due a cold winter, so far its been right.... Ive been enjoying the cold, fishing has been great. Hope it does not get as cold as they think it could. We are overdue for a freeze on the coast.


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## Mr. Breeze (Jan 6, 2005)

Got some time on Ch.11 6pm news tonight, probably again at 10pm, 23rd - 28, still just a forecast but lows in the teens not out of the upper 20's for those 5 days, for the Houston area. Burst pipes in the attic type weather.


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## kfigeley (Jun 18, 2006)

If you enjoy following the weather or just want to keep track of this arctic system here's a good site to check out.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.phpf=22&t=114950&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=2020

It all starts around page 102

Heres a graph of what they are predicting.


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## cva34 (Dec 22, 2008)

*Killing Fish*

You know the only bright side is that its been pretty dang cold and ( little sun to warm water and mud) and fish have moved to winter water(I hope) So it may not be so bad (my hope /guess)..What I have seen over the years is when it relatively warm and then gets cold from hell (thats what Kills)


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## Sweet Action (Mar 27, 2008)

Bocephus said:


> IF...the forecast comes to pass, the best scenario is for water temps to gradually fall over several days. That gives the fish time to move to find the deeper, warmer water and hopefully end up in a thermocline in which they can survive.
> 
> Worse case is rapidly dropping air & water temps where many fish get caught on the flats with not enough time to move. Once they get lethargic, and stunned it's too late.


You nailed it buddy...


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## KEN KERLEY (Nov 13, 2006)

Don't take a chance. Follow ddakota's advice and go catch as many fish as you can. Sounds like a good plan to me. Can't do anything about the temps.


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## Oyster Dog (May 21, 2005)

The NWS climate prediction center says we will have a warm Christmas!
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/


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## merle (Jul 13, 2010)

*Dead trout on the horizon -FREEZE ???*



ddakota said:


> We've dodged the bullet for a few years, looks like our luck is running out. Christmas Freeze on the way, long range forecast is for temps in the teens from 23rd till after Christmas. They are forecasting "pipe busting temps" for days. If it falls into the teens and stays there for "days" the coast is in trouble.
> 
> Better go catch your big trout now, she wont be here in 2 weeks.


Why don't you start and word your thread with some optimism? You sound like you don't give a ****. For those who do care about big trout kills it can be misinterpreted.


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## bragwell (Apr 15, 2010)

I've got an idea! Let's all meet up down there with our generators and warm those buggers up!!!


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## Zeitgeist (Nov 10, 2011)

This is my buddies FB account and his latest update. For those on FB if you want to add him he is cool with that. Really knows his ****e, in his younger days he worked at the NWS.

https://www.facebook.com/#!/brian.flanakin

Long range models continue to indicate a strong Arctic blast just before Christmas. Some of the model runs have been quite extreme with analogies to 1983, 1989, and 1899 coming to mind if some of these runs materializeâ€¦â€¦.a few of the model extremes:

Lows in the upper teens in Houston to single digits in the Dallas-Ft Worth area. Temps 45F below normal across the TX Panhandle meaning below -20F. Snow and ice from North Texas down to the Texas Coast. Below freezing in Dal...las-Ft Worth area for at least a week. Travel would come to a halt and numerous pipes would burst.

It should be noted that even if its half as extreme as some of the model runs, it will be a very significant Arctic Blast for TX and most of the Central US during a very busy travel time. We are still a long way out from the Arctic blast and models will change but this definitely "Bears Watch" over the weekend and next week.


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## Fishdog (Jun 22, 2004)

Well, today *MY *meteorologist said:

*Very Long Range (Christmas Week): *
Both the GFS and ECMWF have been indicating the formation of significant ridging from the Gulf of Alaska to northern Russia by the end of next week. Extremely warm water over the northern Pacific Ocean (south of the Gulf of Alaska) is helping to support the formation of these intense ridges in this area and the resultant transport of cold arctic air southward into the US. In fact the forecasted pattern and the anomalies being shown have similarities to 1989, 1983, and 1899 which all resulted in brutal arctic outbreaks into the US. Model guidance continues to indicate the potential for such an outbreak before/near Christmas, but has not been very consistent on how much cold air comes southward, but something to watch for sure.


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## Captain Dave (Jul 19, 2006)

Only Mother Nature knows.. Im waiting for the winning power bowl numbers so I can finally buy my i$land to dock my 77 ft Hatteras next to my Bungalow. Full Kitchen as well


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## V-Bottom (Jun 16, 2007)

Hope it will not be like ''Big D'' last week... I think North of 610 may get pretty cold and down here, we'll be border line


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## spurgersalty (Jun 29, 2010)

Just waiting here...

Â©


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## ccbluewater (May 21, 2004)

kfigeley said:


> If you enjoy following the weather or just want to keep track of this arctic system here's a good site to check out.
> 
> http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.phpf=22&t=114950&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=2020
> 
> ...


Great site, been following for a long time. Those meteographs are awesome tools at deciphering the raw data outputs from the models.

Simply going to a weather site, looking at a long range forecast is not going to get you very far. These models have been trending this way for several days In a row now, and not just a one time bad run on the models.
This won't be a gradual decline in temps either if this verifies the way it's showing. Notice next week being pretty mild, and then a 30-40 degree Plummet in air temps in a matter of hours.
Obviously betting against the weatherman this far out is usually easy money, but several of the guys on that site posted above are professional wx guys, and when they are talking like they are about this possible situation, it catches my attention. Wasn't born in 83, and was only a couple years old in 89, but those were some serious events for down here.


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## poco jim (Jun 28, 2010)

Isn't this a once or twice a year prediction by "experts" passed on to members of this forum. If I remember right there was one claiming single digits in south Texas earlier this year and it was in the 60's during the prediction time. Not saying anything bad about the predictors, but I'll wait on the professionals before I start to go underground.


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## BMTAngler (Aug 17, 2008)

So the weatherman is telling the truth all of the sudden?!? Lol all kidding aside....I'm hoping we don't have a real arctic blast, hopefully if we do its gradual so the big girls can get deep


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## spurgersalty (Jun 29, 2010)

BMTAngler said:


> So the weatherman is telling the truth all of the sudden?!? Lol all kidding aside....I'm hoping we don't have a real arctic blast, hopefully if we do its gradual so the big girls can get deep


Boy o boy if they don't.....and as the time creeps up.....

Â©


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## falcon (Dec 24, 2011)

They might already know whats coming, givin the trout I have caught lately from 5-8 pounds have all been extremely extremely portly and areas that were incredibly productive the past two winters(drought winters) are nothing but a wet dream right now. Not to mention the water temp now( seems to fluctuate between 47-51), hasn't come to close to that the past two years, let alone sustained for this amount of time and this early....precursors for fish? I sure as well hope so, could all align for a new state record fatty who knows, just an optimist


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## railbird (Jan 2, 2009)

If this event comes to pass, I will be looking for volunteers to run down south and help me rescue sea turtles. A few years back many were saved by fishermen with cabins taking them inside to keep them warm till the weather warms up. Tpwd ask for our help last time. I will get ahead of the game this time. Please pm me if you would like to pitch in this time. I have a cabin at the north end of the landcut and know a few others down there that could help if needed. There were 100's of sea turtles on the bank last big freeze.


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## spurgersalty (Jun 29, 2010)

railbird said:


> If this event comes to pass, I will be looking for volunteers to run down south and help me rescue sea turtles. A few years back many were saved by fishermen with cabins taking them inside to keep them warm till the weather warms up. Tpwd ask for our help last time. I will get ahead of the game this time. Please pm me if you would like to pitch in this time. I have a cabin at the north end of the landcut and know a few others down there that could help if needed. There were 100's of sea turtles on the bank last big freeze.


True class shown yet again!
Working 7 days a week, BUT, would definitely fire up the duck skiff to give "this guy" a hand if I could.

Why were they on the banks though C?

Â©


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## railbird (Jan 2, 2009)

They were freezing I guess lost many to the cold I was seeing them every 100yds or so down the icw.


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## ccbluewater (May 21, 2004)

railbird said:


> If this event comes to pass, I will be looking for volunteers to run down south and help me rescue sea turtles. A few years back many were saved by fishermen with cabins taking them inside to keep them warm till the weather warms up. Tpwd ask for our help last time. I will get ahead of the game this time. Please pm me if you would like to pitch in this time. I have a cabin at the north end of the landcut and know a few others down there that could help if needed. There were 100's of sea turtles on the bank last big freeze.


Wow, that's pretty cool! In regards to fish, when temps get close to the freezing mark on the coast for a extended amount of time doesn't TPWD shut down areas like Offats & other deep water bay areas to fishing?


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## texasislandboy (Apr 28, 2012)

railbird said:


> If this event comes to pass, I will be looking for volunteers to run down south and help me rescue sea turtles. A few years back many were saved by fishermen with cabins taking them inside to keep them warm till the weather warms up. Tpwd ask for our help last time. I will get ahead of the game this time. Please pm me if you would like to pitch in this time. I have a cabin at the north end of the landcut and know a few others down there that could help if needed. There were 100's of sea turtles on the bank last big freeze.


My boat will be ready. I have planned it already.


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## fishingtwo (Feb 23, 2009)

I remember the freeze of 83, was duck hunting in mattie and lake austin was frozen over.
Funny I watched the news at 6pm this evening and channel 13 did not mention this forcast at all. I did hear a little on channel 11. Either way I hope the trout sense it and move to deeper water.
If it looks like it will happen I will get in touch Railbird.


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## spurgersalty (Jun 29, 2010)

railbird said:


> They were freezing I guess lost many to the cold I was seeing them every 100yds or so down the icw.


thats strange!?!?!
You would think mother nature would program the idea that the water them is warmer than the air temp into the wildlife head!



ccbluewater said:


> Wow, that's pretty cool! In regards to fish, when temps get close to the freezing mark on the coast for a extended amount of time doesn't TPWD shut down areas like Offats & other deep water bay areas to fishing?


Yessir, they do. You just need to check sites when temps drop below 32Â°f to make sure an outing isn't illegal.

Â©


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## railbird (Jan 2, 2009)

I can sleep 12 adults in our cabin without anyone having to double up. If we can get a few boats, we can resue all day and warm them up over night and make a haul back to a shelter setup by Tpwd or others. As it gets closer I will work with Tpwd and get the logistics worked out.


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## texasislandboy (Apr 28, 2012)

Sounds good. I'll try to get with the turtle place down here. They have all the tanks to keep them alive.


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## DCAVA (Aug 5, 2013)

The weather the past week has already taken a toll on the sea turtles in the RGV...

I remember during hard freezes of the past, the reports of large numbers of trout and reds stunned or dead all over the LLM....

http://www.valleycentral.com/news/story.aspx?id=981816#.Uqk5ckmA3IU


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## Zeitgeist (Nov 10, 2011)

According to channel 2 in Houston the sea turtle thing has already started:

http://www.click2houston.com/news/s...es/-/1735978/23439272/-/12mcvmiz/-/index.html


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## colbyntx (Jul 18, 2013)

railbird said:


> I can sleep 12 adults in our cabin without anyone having to double up. If we can get a few boats, we can resue all day and warm them up over night and make a haul back to a shelter setup by Tpwd or others. As it gets closer I will work with Tpwd and get the logistics worked out.


That's pretty cool! Wish I lived down there because I would lend a hand. Don't see any up the Sabine way???


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## Pocketfisherman (May 30, 2005)

The stations in Austin are already talking about this on the 6 an 10pm news weather forecasts.


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## yakamac (Jan 24, 2010)

The weather guessers are lucky if they get tomorrows weather right. Now they're predicting 2 weeks out.......gimme a break


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## rugger (Jul 17, 2009)

yakamac said:


> The weather guessers are lucky if they get tomorrows weather right. Now they're predicting 2 weeks out.......gimme a break


Tons of people's money depends on long-term weather forecasting, and they've been getting pretty darn good at it.


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## robolivar (Oct 7, 2011)

slapyopappy said:


> the sky is falling!!!!
> 
> No, really, the weatherman is wrong a lot. No use in worrying about something that's two weeks away, especially something weather related. I'd be a rich man if i had a dime for every time the weather services forecasted 5-10 sse winds and it ended up blowing 15-20 sw.


aint that the truth!


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## Oyster Dog (May 21, 2005)

robolivar said:


> aint that the truth!


This year was forecasted to be a record year for hurricanes, too. Pfft!

I'm not complaining, but I have a pair of dice that's just as accurate as some of these forecasts.


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## Smackdaddy53 (Nov 4, 2011)

rugger said:


> Tons of people's money depends on long-term weather forecasting, and they've been getting pretty darn good at it.


Yeah right! How much do you pay for the real forecast because most of the time the forecasts I cross reference are collectively wrong. It may get cold but I doubt they are accurate enough to say when and how cold. The forecast yesterday for where I was fishing showed a high of 60 and 8-10 mph NE winds...the bay was slick as glass from 10 AM until dark and it never got above 50 degrees because of heavy cloud cover.

http://www.fishingscout.com/scouts/SmackDaddy


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## Bankin' On It (Feb 14, 2013)

Well...I'll step up and catch some trout...where are they again? I missed that part.


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## glennkoks (Jun 24, 2009)

The models are picking up on an arctic blast. But lots of times these things move more east than south and moderate quite a bit. To predict a low temp with any accuracy this far out is simply ludicrous and to worry about it being severe enough to cause a fish kill is simply not even worth thinking about yet.

With that being said it has been really cold and hopefully the fish stay closer to the deeper water and don't get lured out to much by the warm weather thats coming next week.


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## Reynolds4 (Jan 18, 2010)

Bankin' On It said:


> Well...I'll step up and catch some trout...where are they again? I missed that part.


According to the forecast if you wait two weeks they'll be floating on top 

I kid...hopefully it doesn't get that cold, it's been cold enough for me here lately!


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## johndoughy (Sep 8, 2013)

Well this is the best news. Sunday before Christmas, I'll be posted up in a muddy canal stocking up on gator trout.


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## rugger (Jul 17, 2009)

Smackdaddy53 said:


> Yeah right! How much do you pay for the real forecast because most of the time the forecasts I cross reference are collectively wrong. It may get cold but I doubt they are accurate enough to say when and how cold. The forecast yesterday for where I was fishing showed a high of 60 and 8-10 mph NE winds...the bay was slick as glass from 10 AM until dark and it never got above 50 degrees because of heavy cloud cover.
> 
> http://www.fishingscout.com/scouts/SmackDaddy


Well, I don't mean paying for forecasts, but GENERAL weather patterns out a couple weeks have gotten pretty good as they're used heavily by agriculture and power traders. Do they change? of course, but in general weather patterns and trends are better forecasted now than they were years back. However, there are always going to be variables such as cloud cover that an alter a forecast several degrees on any given day, which could make the difference in whether there is a fish kill or not.


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## gater (May 25, 2004)

*Weather*

Is it possible, of course it has happened before and will again. These are not forecast by the local weather man they are computer models. They are imputed with new data every 6 hours so the forecast can change every 6 hours. Just like forecasting hurricanes the longer the run the less accurate but it is something that you keep an eye on.

It's not about the sky falling, temperatures like that can cause serious problems for plenty of people so it is something you have to be aware of. If you were not around in 83' and 89' it was not fun especially if you had to work in it or suffered damage from it.


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## T.C. (May 7, 2009)

We should tell the trout this front is coming so they can prepare...


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## pwooly (Dec 2, 2012)

Read about it this morning. Definitely not good considering saltwater can freeze at 18 degrees.


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## txdukklr (Jun 30, 2013)

It's going to be cold, I've seen some of the early models and there's arctic air building


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## capt. david (Dec 29, 2004)

http://dfw.cbslocal.com/2013/12/11/when-next-arctic-blast-hits-dfw/


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## yakamac (Jan 24, 2010)

Worst thing that could happen is it warms up and then gets real cold if it stays like it has been the fish will be better prepared to handle it


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## redexpress (Apr 5, 2010)

David Paul Channel 11 Houston on todays 6pm weathercast backed off on the low temps being forecast.


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## Reynolds4 (Jan 18, 2010)

redexpress said:


> David Paul Channel 11 Houston on todays 6pm weathercast backed off on the low temps being forecast.


Same with Channel 13.


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## Drifter (May 23, 2004)

Thats great news but, still keeping my fingers crossed and praying to the fish Gods!!!

Drifter


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## Wacken'emWading (May 27, 2013)

Looks the low for the week before Xmas is only 32. Fish dodged a bullet there


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## slapyopappy (Dec 9, 2013)

T.C. said:


> We should tell the trout this front is coming so they can prepare...


Best post in this thread.


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## TheRooster (Jul 15, 2012)

railbird said:


> I can sleep 12 adults in our cabin without anyone having to double up. If we can get a few boats, we can resue all day and warm them up over night and make a haul back to a shelter setup by Tpwd or others. As it gets closer I will work with Tpwd and get the logistics worked out.


Count my boat in, ill help

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I337 using Tapatalk


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## poobah_1 (Aug 2, 2013)

Here is the Long Range Discussion from WUnderground

_Extended guidance still showing a 
possible Arctic front plunging south next weekend...GFS more 
aggressive...while European model (ecmwf) is a little warmer and weaker and still 
confined to the northern tier of states on Monday the 23rd. For now 
will lean toward the solution but the trend is that a big cold 
snap is possible toward xmas. Still to early to be very confident 
but wary is in order.
_

WUnderground is a great site, but you have to read the "Scientific Discussion" section to really see what is going on.

We will see what happens, the GFS has been running a bit pessimistic this winter. The problem is, when you have strong divergence in two models, the average is not the solution, the models will resolve to one trend or the other. So we will either have a strong Arctic cold front for Christmas, or we won't, it will be bright and sunny with a high of 65. The solution is binary.

PooBah


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## colbyntx (Jul 18, 2013)

Love to see this!


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## Smackdaddy53 (Nov 4, 2011)

So does this mean the sky isn't falling and hell won't freeze over this month?

http://www.fishingscout.com/scouts/SmackDaddy


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## colbyntx (Jul 18, 2013)

Smackdaddy53 said:


> So does this mean the sky isn't falling and hell won't freeze over this month?
> 
> http://www.fishingscout.com/scouts/SmackDaddy


No worries Chicken Little!


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## Blk Jck 224 (Oct 16, 2009)

Looks like a bone chilling 44* Christmas morning...LOL At least cool enough to throw a log on the fire for Christmas morning ambience. :cheers:


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## Smackdaddy53 (Nov 4, 2011)

Zeitgeist said:


> This is my buddies FB account and his latest update. For those on FB if you want to add him he is cool with that. Really knows his ****e, in his younger days he worked at the NWS.
> 
> https://www.facebook.com/#!/brian.flanakin
> 
> ...


Years like 2012 come to mind

http://www.fishingscout.com/scouts/SmackDaddy


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