# Storm Debby to hit Texas on Tuesday?



## Trouthappy (Jun 12, 2008)

The people at Crown Weather are pretty good at predicting storms and so far today he thinks storm Debby will hit Texas early next week, instead of moving NE to Florida. It's a little early, but his explanation is at:

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557


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## Rippin_drag (Sep 2, 2008)

Lots of activity out there. Keep on bringin the rain, minus the 75 mpg winds of course.

Good link too, thanks.


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## justletmein (Feb 11, 2006)

Rippin_drag said:


> Lots of activity out there. Keep on bringin the rain, minus the 75 mpg winds of course.
> 
> Good link too, thanks.


Man those storms get great gas mileage.


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## LaddH (Sep 29, 2011)

We need the rain around POC for sure. Less than 1/2 in in the last 3 days with t storms all around us.. And a long dry stretch before that. It has mostly managed to go around us so far and what we get has been the crumbs.


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## Rippin_drag (Sep 2, 2008)

Doh! LOL


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## Sabinewhaler (Mar 14, 2012)

I predict it makin landfall in port Arthur Galveston area


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## cobrayakker (Mar 23, 2006)

Somewhere between Brownsville and Key West is a good bet.


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## Gilbert (May 25, 2004)

Trouthappy said:


> The people at Crown Weather are pretty good at predicting storms and so far today he thinks storm Debby will hit Texas early next week, instead of moving NE to Florida. It's a little early, but his explanation is at:
> 
> http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557


not unless the high pressure right above us moves off


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## Troy Chapman (Jan 27, 2010)

Our company (inland waterway shipping) uses Impact Weather and they are still predicting it to move up to Florida, only giving it 20% chance to turn into a depression.


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## Trouthappy (Jun 12, 2008)

Now the European forecasters are siding with a Texas hit, and Crown Weather predicts Hurricane Debby hitting near Corpus Christi...

Thursday, June 21, 2012 4:22 pm

by Rob Lightbown

The tropical disturbance that we are currently tracking near the Yucatan Peninsula has been upgraded to Invest 96L by the National Hurricane Center. Now that it has been designated an Invest, we should see track guidance issued every six hours which hopefully will give us a better idea of where it will track.

I have a high degree of confidence that this will become Debby by this weekend and in fact the Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly out and investigate this system on Friday afternoon.

The afternoon guidance seems to be slowly coming around to what I am thinking for a track. My thinking from this morning has not changed and I still believe that this will be a threat to Texas around the middle part of next week. In fact, the European model has jumped on board with the westward track and forecasts Debby to make landfall as a hurricane near Corpus Christi next Thursday.

All interests along the Gulf Coast should keep a very close watch on the progress of this system. Needless to say, I am watching Invest 96L very closely and I will keep you all updated.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557


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## reeltimer (Feb 5, 2010)

Yep i get all my weather from European folks!


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## Gilbert (May 25, 2004)

reeltimer said:


> Yep i get all my weather from European folks!


and your fashion :an5:


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## speckcaster (May 5, 2012)

i'm praying for a direct hit on New York!!!


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## SpecklFinAddict (Dec 19, 2004)

*Off Impact Weather(revised)*

*Disturbance 11 Advisory 17*

Issued: Thursday, June 21st 2012 4:44pm CDT

*Current Position: *21.8N 89.0W 
*Geographic Reference: *500 miles west-southwest of Key West, FL 
*Movement: *Nearly stationary 
*Organizational Trend: *Increasing slightly 
*Chance of Development Within the Next 48 Hours: *70 percent 
*Chance of Development Beyond 48 Hours: *90 percent 
*Chance of Hurricane Intensity Beyond 48 Hours: *40 percent

*Changes from the Previous Forecast *
The center was respositioned based on data coming out of the Yucatan Peninsula. In addition the chances of development are increasing. More likely than not it will become the next tropical storm on Saturday and possibly reach hurricane intensity early next week. Lastly, we now think that a westerly movement is more likely, beginning late this weekend.

*Our Forecast *
The models are in general agreement that over the next 48 hours or so that Disturbance 11 will move slowly to the north-northwest. Then the models diverge somewhat. The latest round of guidance is more in favor of a track to the west in the general direction of Texas and Mexico. In this scenario it could reach the coast around next Tuesday or Wednesday. It is looking less likely that a track to the northeast toward Florida would occur. We now think that a slow north-northwest movement for the next 2-3 days is most likely, followed by a westerly turn toward Texas. Considering the divergence in model guidance beyond 72 hours, confidence in the forecast track remains low.

Disturbance 11 is gaining in organization and we think it is likely that the disturbance will become a tropical depression in 24 hours and a tropical storm on Saturday. Considering the among of time it will spend over the Gulf of Mexico, there is an increasing risk of it reaching hurricane intensity early next week.

*Expected Impacts to Land *
*South and Central Florida Peninsula: *Thunderstorms are likely to be enhanced by this system through Saturday, especially in the afternoon hours. Periods of heavy rain are possible. 
*Louisiana Coastal Areas: *Some squalls could develop Friday afternoon and evening. Squalls are more likely over the weekend and this could lead to locally heavy rain. Increasing easterly winds offshore could result in tides 1-2 feet above normal by Friday morning and up to 2-4 feet above normal over the weekend. 
*Mississippi Coast Through the Central Florida Panhandle: *Squalls could form by Friday evening, lasting through the weekend. Tides may increase to 1-2 feet above normal on Saturday due to increasing easterly winds offshore. Tides could increase more on Sunday, depending upon how much development this system undergoes. 
*Texas and Northeastern Mexican Coast: *The first squalls to reach the area would be later in the weekend, on Sunday at the earliest. More likely, squalls wouldn't reach this region until early next week.

*Expected Impacts to the Northwestern Gulf of Mexico *
Squalls could move into the deepwater areas off the central and southeast Louisiana coast by Friday afternoon and continue through early next week.

The next advisory will be issued by 11PM CDT. 
Meteorologists: Dante Diaz / Chris Hebert


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## speckcaster (May 5, 2012)

*oh well!*

well looks like my wish for "New York" just went to h#@ll...:headknock


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## topwatrout (Aug 25, 2009)

If it comes this way I'll definently be wading pre-storm...


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## worstSPECKanglerTX (May 30, 2012)

Hopefully it does come and get people off the water that have been pounding every bay system this summer. Fishing is gonna be extremely hot when it lets up. You can bet I'll be wading a shoreline.


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## speckcaster (May 5, 2012)

*copy that ...*

that's a big 10-4 on wading pre-storm......it might be tough timing those swells though...have to stay on top of the conditions

but it could turn-em on!


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## Ol' Red (May 26, 2011)

Watching this. Have a family beach trip planned for next weekend


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## SpecklFinAddict (Dec 19, 2004)

Ol' Red said:


> Watching this. Have a family beach trip planned for next weekend


Next weekend should be fine...looks like a early week where ever it ends up!


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## railbird (Jan 2, 2009)

A well-defined area of low pressure located on the north Yucatan Peninsula, dubbed Invest 96L, is steadily organizing this afternoon and seems poised to become a tropical depression over the next day or so. Satellite imagery loops reveal that a large area of shower and thunderstorm activity across much of the Central and Eastern Gulf of Mexico, and surface observations from the Yucatan Peninsula and surrounding locations show that barometric pressure readings are steadily falling. In addition, latest wind shear product maps reveal that wind shear affecting the low-level center of 96L has decreased significantly thanks to a small upper-level anticyclone positioned atop of it. The latest National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook gave the invest a High chance, 70%, of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours; I agree with these percentages.


Figure 1. Afternoon visible satellite imagery of Invest 96L.

The forecast for 96L
Invest 96L poises a significant threat to the United States. As aforementioned, the disturbance has an anticyclone positioned directly atop the low-level center. Sea Surface Temperatures in 96L's potential track(s) are 28-29 °C; wind shear is expected to be below 15 knots throughout the entire forecast period (120 hours). In addition, the latest Precipitable Water Loop from the University of Wisconsin shows that the disturbance is embedded within a large moisture envelope, shielding it from any potential dry air intrusions. Other than time and its current broad nature, I see no reason why 96L will not gradually, or maybe even rapidly, strengthen over the next few days. A hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico is definitely not out of the realms of possibility.

As for track, it is still very much unknown. Until we get an actual tropical cyclone, models will continue to perform what is called the "windshield wiper" effect--that is, switching drastically from run to run. However, what 96L's track boils down to depends on 1.) the strength of the future ridge across Texas, 2.) the strength of the incoming trough, and 3.) the strength of the actual tropical cyclone. The entire USA Gulf Coast needs to watch this system closely and begin preparing for a potential hurricane.

TropicalAnalystwx13
Categories: Tropical Cyclones of 2012 Tropical Weather
 	Permalink | A A A

Looks like we all should pay attention to this one.


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## Treble J (Mar 18, 2011)

Friday, June 22, 2012 6:38 am

by Rob Lightbown

Invest 96L was located just north of the Yucatan Peninsula this morning very near 22.36 North Latitude and 89.85 West Longitude. Even though shower and thunderstorm activity was pretty disorganized with a majority of the shower and thunderstorm activity occurring on the east side of 96L across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, the overall circulation of 96L is becoming better defined and surface pressures have fallen from roughly 1007 millibars at 8 pm last evening to 1004 millibars as of 6 am this morning.

I strongly believe that given the increasingly favorable environment that this system is located in that it will be upgraded to either a tropical depression or perhaps even a tropical storm between 5 pm this afternoon and 5 pm Saturday afternoon. Reconnaissance aircraft are currently scheduled to investigate 96L this afternoon to determine whether it is indeed a tropical cyclone.

The latest forecast guidance is coming around to a consensus for a northward and then westward track towards the Texas coast which falls in line with my forecast for this system all along. My choice of model guidance this morning is the European model as for the second forecast run in a row it is forecasting a track that takes it somewhere between Corpus Christi and Brownsville on Thursday of next week. The GFS model is the outlier and will be disregarded as it continues to take what will be Debby into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and ends up forecasting a stall there for almost a week.

The latest track guidance for 96L shows a northward and then westward track which is my thinking as of this morning.

All interests along the Gulf Coast should keep a very close watch on the progress of this system. Needless to say, I am watching Invest 96L very closely and I will keep you all updated.


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## Kolorado_Koolaid (Mar 19, 2012)

so much for fishing next week!


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## Troy Chapman (Jan 27, 2010)

Should know more afternoon, scheduled to fly into the area around 12:30.


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## Viking48 (Jan 24, 2006)

Great - supposed to fish POC next weekend starting Wednesday.


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## topwatrout (Aug 25, 2009)

I'll be wading no matter what..not gonna catch them if you're not out there....kidding


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## Trouthappy (Jun 12, 2008)

Well, we will see which way this puppy finally goes...

Saturday, June 23, 2012 8:26 am

by Rob Lightbown

Satellite loops this morning indicate that Invest 96L is continually becoming better organized with time. Showers and thunderstorms have increased overnight and the position of this Invest was about 200 miles to the north-northeast of Cancun, Mexico. With that said, this system is still fairly broad in nature and it has not tightened up sufficiently to be classified as a tropical depression or a tropical storm.

I expect that Invest 96L will track slowly northward today into tonight and be located about 225 miles to the southeast of New Orleans or about 200 miles due south of Mobile, Alabama by Sunday morning. During Sunday into Monday, Invest 96L is expected to slow way down in forward speed and potentially stall for up to 24 to 30 hours. This is where the huge difference in the forecast guidance plays into this forecast.

The global forecast and even the track guidance continue to forecast some very different ideas with the track of what is likely to be Debby. The GFS model continues to insist on an eastward track across Florida and into the Atlantic. Meanwhile, all of the other forecast guidance is forecasting a westward track and have landfall ideas ranging from in-between Corpus Christi and Brownsville (European model) to a landfall near Morgan City, Louisiana (Canadian model) to a landfall near Galveston (UKMET model).

It is my personal opinion that the GFS model solution is garbage and should be thrown out. The Canadian model may be too far east and I think a track somewhere between the UKMET and the European model guidance may be a good fit.

I strongly believe that this is eventually headed west and not to the east. The eastern trough, I do not think is strong enough to be able to pull this storm across Florida, especially with the large ridge of high pressure over Texas. My thinking as of this morning is for Debby to come ashore very near Corpus Christi, Texas late Wednesday afternoon as a 80 mph hurricane.

Heavy rainfall with potential flooding will continue across the western half of the Florida Peninsula and also from the Florida Panhandle westward to coastal Alabama, coastal Mississippi and southeastern Louisiana through at least Tuesday night. Later on down the road, heavy rainfall with flood issues may be a concern across central and south Texas south of Interstate 20 from Wednesday through Friday of next week.

Finally, the latest outlook from the National Hurricane Center has been issued and it appears likely that 96L will be upgraded to Tropical Storm Debby at some point today, likely right around 4 pm CT. Additionally, Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings may be issued for parts of the northern Gulf coast sometime this weekend.


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## Chase This! (Jul 20, 2007)

GFS says FL. And two others say FL. We shall see.


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## histprof (Oct 30, 2011)

It looks this morning like the low/center is forming a bit farther to the N/NE than anticipated. It will take until later today for the models to adjust to the new data. Then, NOAA will run an upper air mission over the US to get a better read on that high/trough set up. When that data gets in, the models will predict where it will go pretty closely. Until then, we are in 'peek at the news every few hours' mode.

More importantly, what category storm are we going to need to break up all the weed so that we can fish the beach a bit more comfortably for a few weeks? 

Talked with a co-worker with some farm property near Waller this week. He says that they haven't had a drop. Perhaps a mild storm might give the beach a stir and bring some rain to the folks inland. Always hoping for the best.


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## Chase4556 (Aug 26, 2008)

LBAR and GFDL models will work for me. I need the rain to hit the Savannah area.


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## JimD (May 25, 2004)

How about the depression setting over the hill country about three days and dumping 10 to 15 inches of rain instead. Be nice to have all the hill country lakes full for a change in two years.


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## histprof (Oct 30, 2011)

I got to visit the monitoring center for Mt. Vesuvius in Naples a couple of weeks ago. Talking with the director, I shared the story of the Rita evacuation from 2005. He said that it sounded like a success from his point of view. The last time they tried simulating an evacuation of the Red Zone (650,000 people), 1000 volunteer evacuees shut down the full transit network of the region. He estimated that an actual eruption emergency had the potential to be apocalyptic. I can't imagine how awful it must be for local govt officials to attempt emergency operations. Not a job that I would want. 

Random thoughts.... Still hoping for some good rain.


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## rynochop (Aug 28, 2006)

Chase This! said:


> GFS says FL. And two others say FL. We shall see.


LOL at those projections, so basically they have no idea..


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## kenny (May 21, 2004)

rynochop said:


> LOL at those projections, so basically they have no idea..


That's about it, but a lot of people seem to "fancy" themselves either meteorologist or fortune tellers! :spineyes:


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## Fishwish (Aug 3, 2004)

Ny guess is that they're not real sure where Debby will go....


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## Absolut (Jan 23, 2010)

Tropical systems are extremely complicated and will probably always be hard to predict accurately. There are a near infinite amount of variables that affect the weather and you can't know them all...why the call it weather guessing. When forecasting you're taking the data you have combined with past experience and gut feeling. Less gut feeling these days and more just relying on the models...


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## NWcurlew (Mar 9, 2012)

*Headed For Texas!*

I have the best explanation so far for why this sucker is gonna hit Texas and come ashore on or around PINS. My Father in Law just purchased a house off White Cap on N. Padre Island... He lost his last Port A condo to his wife in their divorce. Bet you cant guess what her name was... Yep Debby!

Either way we need rain with a name here in S. Texas just hope she doesn't take the new home with her.


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## 15476 (May 15, 2006)

*tropical storm debby*

the weather channel just announced at 4:00pm its now officially a tropical storm.


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## Copano/Aransas (Dec 18, 2011)

*T.S Debby*

Take a look, debby's on the way.


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## Fishwish (Aug 3, 2004)

Based on the Hurricane Hunter's data, the HHC has issued the first advisory for Tropical Storm Debby. They have chosen the western track for Debby taking her into South Texas. We'll see.


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## Swampus (Sep 1, 2005)

Just hope she brings some rain way inshore with her..............not so much the wind thing!


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## shorty70 (Jun 29, 2008)

Think we'll know more tomorrow. It's guessing time still..


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## Flat's Hunter (Oct 18, 2007)

So what does the fishing typically do with a storm. Turn on a few days before then shut down as it approaches, then pick up again a couple days later after moving though?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## sotexhookset (Jun 4, 2011)

Double edged sword here again. We reallllly need the rain here in the hill country and I pray for it for work and everyones well being in general but we have offshore, floundering and flats fishing scheduled next weekend goin down on Thursday. Mixed emotions. Grrrrr. We do need the rain.


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## Trouthappy (Jun 12, 2008)

The U.S. Navy is pretty dang good at weather forecasting. My brother worked for them and has been sending me their weather maps since the bad 2004 hurricane season. He just sent this. Looks like a direct hit on Packery Channel? Not a strong storm, however. Better move the lawn chairs indoors. The Crown forecaster agrees with the Navy and sticks with his original prediction made three days ago.


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## Ol' Red (May 26, 2011)

Looks like its turning north now boys! The crown forecaster is now saying it will make landfall between Mobile beach and Florida


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## eesmike (Aug 18, 2010)

Ol' Red said:


> Looks like its turning north now boys! The crown forecaster is now saying it will make landfall between Mobile beach and Florida


My buddy is in Tampa and they're getting hammered with rain, and many tornados in the area. We may be out of luck on this one.


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## Trouthappy (Jun 12, 2008)

Seems like its gotta cross North Florida and go into the Atlantic. If it ever went west, it would cause a real mess.


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## RedXRunner (Dec 21, 2009)

Ol' Red said:


> Looks like its turning north now boys! The crown forecaster is now saying it will make landfall between Mobile beach and Florida


still unclear on where it's going. We will find out tomorrow.


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## PutTheForearmOn_em!! (May 13, 2012)

Keep this post going guys!!! I really need to know where the heck that thing is going to be this coming wednesday!!!! My fiance wants to try out her new rod in the surf in Matty wed. It's the only day we have to go together!!!!


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## topwatrout (Aug 25, 2009)

Even if it doesnt hit us straight on, the surf is going to be higher than normal and the currents are going to be stronger than normal. May not be too safe


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## Tailshot (Jan 23, 2010)

Going north for now...who knows.


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## histprof (Oct 30, 2011)

Looks like we just lost the rain lottery and won the HOT lottery. 101 right now in Cypress, according to my truck's temp gauge. Here's hoping Debby finds her way on out of the region before getting stronger. All we need is a hurricane to our east, just strong enough to bring us west winds off the Mexican desert... 10% humidity and 110 degrees doesn't sound like fun to me.


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## topwatrout (Aug 25, 2009)

I promise you it feels better than 100 degrees and 90% humidity...


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## Slow Boat (Jun 12, 2011)

God bless the people who are hit but HOT DIGGITY! We're on our next snapper trip from Port A on Tuesday!


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## Smackdaddy53 (Nov 4, 2011)

Night fishin time!


-mac-


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## Ol' Red (May 26, 2011)

eesmike said:


> My buddy is in Tampa and they're getting hammered with rain, and many tornados in the area. We may be out of luck on this one.


Hope your buddy and family is safe. Wasn't wishing the storm on anyone


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## PutTheForearmOn_em!! (May 13, 2012)

Yup yup....


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## RedXCross (Aug 7, 2005)

We had a House in Panama city beach starting that day, for a week.It looks like someone will be reimbursing me a [email protected] of money!!

Oh well, there is always more fishing here. LMAO. Sa lie Vie.


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## topherLIVE (Aug 31, 2010)

RedXCross said:


> We had a House in Panama city beach starting that day, for a week.It looks like someone will be reimbursing me a [email protected] of money!!
> 
> Oh well, there is always more fishing here. LMAO. Sa lie Vie.


c'est la vie indeed


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## topwatrout (Aug 25, 2009)

Looks like the storm is moving east towards Florida... Mom lives in Lakeland, just west of Tampa, so hopefully they don't get it too bad.


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