# 747 Jet Down in Trinity Bay?



## GooseCommanderozz (Feb 17, 2012)

Got a report that a commercial 747 jet crashed down in Trinity Bay near Jacks Pocket. Anyone heard anything?


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## TheGoose (Jan 22, 2006)

Oh boy. Hope it's not true.


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## cubera (Mar 9, 2005)

767 Cargo jet.
https://www.khou.com/article/news/l...unty/285-4bdb0c6f-4d2b-40ca-8910-2113abfe1aec

https://www.click2houston.com/news/...hes-into-trinity-bay-3-people-aboard-faa-says


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## 4 Ever-Fish N (Jun 10, 2006)

This bites. I hope the 3 on board are still alive. Prayers sent.


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## 3192 (Dec 30, 2004)

https://www.khou.com/article/news/l...huac/285-4bdb0c6f-4d2b-40ca-8910-2113abfe1aec

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## 4 Ever-Fish N (Jun 10, 2006)

I was watching live video feed from a news helicopter a few minutes ago. All the debris being shown was very very small.


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## bwguardian (Aug 30, 2005)

No survivors...so sad.


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## GooseCommanderozz (Feb 17, 2012)

Sending prayers for the families of those involved.


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## FishAfrica (Jan 23, 2010)

Boeing 767-300 jet that was under contract to Amazon. RIP to the pilots and families


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## Mattsfishin (Aug 23, 2009)

Prayers to the families.


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## Trouthappy (Jun 12, 2008)

They said it went straight down into five feet of water. 
Probably burned up most of its fuel, coming from Miami.


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## Rubberback (Sep 9, 2008)

RIP! Wonder what caused this?


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## redexpress (Apr 5, 2010)

Witnesses heard an explosion, nose dived down into Jacks Pocket.


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## thedudeabides (May 6, 2018)

Wow. Sad. God bless the crew and families.


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## Bruce J (Jun 27, 2004)

Hope no boaters were hit.


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## dlbpjb (Oct 9, 2009)

Sad day for sure, have flown with many Atlas Crews through the years, good people. Prayers sent to the families.


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## Brew (May 21, 2004)

redexpress said:


> Witnesses heard an explosion, nose dived down into Jacks Pocket.


Haven't seen that mentioned in any news feeds. Source?


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## cubera (Mar 9, 2005)

Rubberback said:


> RIP! Wonder what caused this?


Wife's theory is a bird strike.
Lots of birds migrating through that area this time of year.


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## c hook (Jul 6, 2016)

*weird*

didn't they say lost radio communication?? sounds very fishy if that's the case, not an engine failure. The video doesn't show that much derbies above the water. RIP:texasflag


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## Cut n Shoot (Dec 11, 2015)

cubera said:


> Wife's theory is a bird strike.
> Lots of birds migrating through that area this time of year.


Ntsb said he was at 6300 ft. All of the sudden he started a 45 degree rapid fall into the bay. Bird strikes? @ 6300 ft.? It's possible, but both engines? I assumed they can fly with one engine. The park will be closed for weeks they're saying. The FBI is investigating..


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## redexpress (Apr 5, 2010)

Brew said:


> Haven't seen that mentioned in any news feeds. Source?


TV interview with somebody. Said at first they thought it was thunder.


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## Skywagon (Jun 29, 2018)

A 767 can fly on one engine easily. Radio silence isn't usually a sign of loss of radio as much as it is the pilots were dealing with something far more important than talking on the radio. There have been a few freight planes over the year who have had sudden cargo shift that cause the airplane to be uncontrollable. A 737 can haul ~130-140000lbs of freight. Some compartments can hold as much as 40-50,000 lbs. If one of those compartments shifted significantly then the airplane could become uncontrollable...its happened before. Bird strike in both engines, even if it flamed them out or caused the fans to disintegrate would not cause it to take 45 degrees down. At their altitude they were likely speed restricted for that approach to 180Kt's or so. With both engines out they would have been able to establish a glide and put the airplane on the ground or water wings level with 2-6 miles depending on a few factors.With the debris field it is unlikely we will ever know for sure, but NTSB will have some theories over a long course of time.


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## Rubberback (Sep 9, 2008)

Skywagon said:


> A 767 can fly on one engine easily. Radio silence isn't usually a sign of loss of radio as much as it is the pilots were dealing with something far more important than talking on the radio. There have been a few freight planes over the year who have had sudden cargo shift that cause the airplane to be uncontrollable. A 737 can haul ~130-140000lbs of freight. Some compartments can hold as much as 40-50,000 lbs. If one of those compartments shifted significantly then the airplane could become uncontrollable...its happened before. Bird strike in both engines, even if it flamed them out or caused the fans to disintegrate would not cause it to take 45 degrees down. At their altitude they were likely speed restricted for that approach to 180Kt's or so. With both engines out they would have been able to establish a glide and put the airplane on the ground or water wings level with 2-6 miles depending on a few factors.With the debris field it is unlikely we will ever know for sure, but NTSB will have some theories over a long course of time.


From what your saying someone didn't secure the load?


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## BBCAT (Feb 2, 2010)

After they recover the flight data and cockpit voice recorder, hopefully we will know more. RIP to the crew and prayers to the families.


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## cubera (Mar 9, 2005)

NTSB guy just said they have a 5 second video of the crash.


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## Skywagon (Jun 29, 2018)

Rubberback said:


> From what your saying someone didn't secure the load?


No not necessarily. Its just a theory, like all other speculation right now; load shift is something real that does happen. Load shift can come from things not being properly secured. It can also come from overloading a given bay, it can come from weather strong enough to cause things to move around, and it can come from equipment fatigue. If their CG was too far forward and they slowed to approach speed, the nose could dip severely and it might not be recoverable at that altitude...especially if on auto pilot. Shift the CG rearward and the plane would likely stall and again at that altitude no much time to recover. Too early to know. I did see a video someone has on TV from a cell phone. It wasn't very helpful. Hopefully the NTSB might have a better shot, but even if a perfect video, it might not explain why it came down...only narrow their theories from a lot to a few.

These guys were highly experienced....the weather in Houston at the time was not bad and unlikely to produce that much wind shear...they aren't over hilly terrain so mountain wave out of the question... Like others just guessing without facts..but a possibility. If the plane was equipped with ACARS, and it probably was, the NTSB will already have some knowledge of anything mechanical even without the FDR.

I'm not an expert on crashes, but after 35 years of cockpit time, I've seen a lot. This one is highly unusual.


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## Cut n Shoot (Dec 11, 2015)

I read where the pilot hitching a ride back to Houston in the jumpseat had just landed his dream job with United ,was to start next month.


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## Skywagon (Jun 29, 2018)

go to the 30 second mark and see load shift


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## 3192 (Dec 30, 2004)

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/video/n...ment-Boeing-767-cargo-plane-starts-crash.html

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## Wizness (Jun 15, 2011)

Def sucks. I was installing a new VHF radio and happened to hear the coast guard calling a pan-pan when it happened. Saw the news article a few hours later.


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## Cut n Shoot (Dec 11, 2015)

Skywagon said:


> go to the 30 second mark and see load shift


I see that 13 ton vehicles shifting aft would cause loss control of the aircraft, but the first responders and news footage show a debris field of boxes,clothing, backpacks and shoes etc..The last contact with Houston, the pilot did say he may turn East to avoid a thunderstorm, then silence... maybe that turn did shift cargo.Another detail, this is a every day flight .Miami to Houston.


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## Rockfish2 (Sep 1, 2017)

The NTSB is investigating, not the FBI.


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## Cut n Shoot (Dec 11, 2015)

Rockfish2 said:


> The NTSB is investigating, not the FBI.


Really?.. Wow !!.


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## Captain Marty (Jul 14, 2006)

Rockfish2 said:


> The NTSB is investigating, not the FBI.


https://www.khou.com/article/news/l...rash/285-ca951eac-6343-4157-98a3-4c5b5e8280c0

FBI is also investigating, just make sure it was not a criminal act or terrorism.


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## prokat (Jul 17, 2010)

Sounds like rapid loss of cabin pressure,they were all passed out. Heartbreaking.

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## kinja (May 21, 2004)

prokat said:


> Sounds like rapid loss of cabin pressure,they were all passed out. Heartbreaking.
> 
> Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-J320A using Tapatalk


Not likely considering their altitude at last communication.


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## prokat (Jul 17, 2010)

Pattillo said:


> Not likely considering their altitude at last communication.


18K is hypoxia territory

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## Trouthappy (Jun 12, 2008)

Here's a cargo shift aboard a 747, from heavy army vehicles. In Afghanistan 
they have to take off steeply to avoid shooting from the surrounding countryside.
If something heavy breaks loose and slides to the back of the plane, well....


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## Cut n Shoot (Dec 11, 2015)

Trouthappy said:


> Here's a cargo shift aboard a 747, from heavy army vehicles. In Afghanistan
> they have to take off steeply to avoid shooting from the surrounding countryside.
> If something heavy breaks loose and slides to the back of the plane, well....


Breaking news..


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## wwind3 (Sep 30, 2009)

this is interesting. Eyewitness accounts say plane was in a nose dive but I saw a 15 sec clip from a bystander that shows it low but in a shallow dive-if that's the same plane.

This clip shows graphs that show plane was descending about 25000 ft/min 12 seconds before loss of radar contact--that's about 285 mph.

Accounts of engine sputtering-plane banking right then nosediving in

No emergency transmissions from plane, this is really weird--planes just don't fall out of the air like this. Remember Sully gliding into the Hudson river. Lost both engines on climbout-low altitude-did 180 and glided into the river. Hard to believe... A fully loaded plane loaded with fuel losing engines while in a power climb is not a real good glider.

But Flt 3591 dropped like a rock altho it was flying minutes before at 300 knots level descending at a normal 1000 ft/minute on approach

10 minutes later and it would have wiped out a good part of Humble Tx-it flies right over Atascocita on approach to runway 26L. I landed on it on a United flight from Knoxville last week.

Possible that weather system caused a downburst that got it. My son who lives in Eagle Springs says he was in his yard around that time and said he had a sudden wind shift and that the temp seemed to drop 20 degrees almost instantly.

anyway--this is a good listen.


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## SD Hawkins (Jan 2, 2008)

_*
Possible that weather system caused a downburst that got it. My son who lives in Eagle Springs says he was in his yard around that time and said he had a sudden wind shift and that the temp seemed to drop 20 degrees almost instantly.*_

I live in KW and that afternoon after the morning being so sticky I could not walk on garage floor safely the wind shifted dramatically out of the W, at at least 20+ and temp dropped a good 10 degrees and all the humidity was gone and dry air came in. This happened in a 10 minute span, I am thinking weather has some involvement in this.


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## catndahats (Sep 15, 2005)

Update: 
Click2Houston has an actual short video of the plane going down taken from a school security camera...just published.

https://www.click2houston.com/news/video-shows-cargo-plane-moments-before-crash-at-trinity-bay


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## 4 Ever-Fish N (Jun 10, 2006)

Can't tell much by looking at the video except the plane appears to be nose diving. Not sure why it disappeared, maybe clouds?


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## Barbarian (Feb 12, 2009)

catndahats said:


> Update:
> Click2Houston has an actual short video of the plane going down taken from a school security camera...just published.
> 
> https://www.click2houston.com/news/video-shows-cargo-plane-moments-before-crash-at-trinity-bay


Wow. Straight down


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## will-billy (Dec 23, 2018)

Communication between ATC and 3591


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## DannyMac (May 22, 2004)

Spoke with my stepfather, retired flight instructor. Gave him this info, 6000', level flight, on final to Bush, nose down 45 degrees into the bay. His response was, it could have been cargo shift but more likely a failure in the aircraft control systems. He mentioned the electonics and the aerolons (sp) but did not elaborate.


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## Texans1 (May 18, 2018)

DannyMac said:


> Spoke with my stepfather, retired flight instructor. Gave him this info, 6000', level flight, on final to Bush, nose down 45 degrees into the bay. His response was, it could have been cargo shift but more likely a failure in the aircraft control systems. He mentioned the electonics and the aerolons (sp) but did not elaborate.


If that's the case it had to be electronics due to no communication with IAH?


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## HoustonKid (Dec 29, 2005)

Nose down and moving fast. Still appeared to be intact.


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## stdreb27 (Aug 15, 2011)

Texans1 said:


> If thatâ€™s the case it had to be electronics due to no communication with IAH?


Theyâ€™re saying when **** hit the fan they were descending at 30k ft per minute.

That ainâ€™t much time at 6k feet.


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## Barbarian (Feb 12, 2009)

Yea. 12 seconds is fast especially when you're not ready for it. But based on the video clip and those time/height/descent numbers, it's basically an immediate unexpected free fall while intact. There can't be many options to cause that.


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## wwind3 (Sep 30, 2009)

the violence is almost like a pilot-induced maneuver...full throttle nose over--hate to break out the tin foil but hard to figure what else could make a plane on a normal descent turn this violent so rapidly and no communication with air traffic control....


There was a 3rd guy on board in the jump seat catching a ride. But if there was evil intent one would think they would have waited a little longer to achieve maximum carnage. Hope they find the boxes.


To repeat what I said earlier Sully -was on a fullpower climbout-lost BOTH engines-communicated with ATC-did an unpowered 180 turn from a noseup attitude which could have caused a quick unrecoverable stall(stall speed increases greatly esp unpowered when in a turn) and glided perfectly into the Hudson River. For comparison to Flt 3591...


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## BBCAT (Feb 2, 2010)

Be patient, they will find the "black boxes".


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## DPFISHERMAN (Jun 6, 2011)

The news is saying that they have found the "black boxes".


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## ccketchum (Oct 18, 2010)

did they find "the" black boxes , or "some" black boxes . tin foil is folded and in place


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## Momma's Worry (Aug 3, 2009)

nauti19 said:


> did they find "the" black boxes , or "some" black boxes . tin foil is folded and in place


HOU-Cron reports.....
One recorder recovered ....cockpit voice


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## Momma's Worry (Aug 3, 2009)

flight recorders .....used and new


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## stdreb27 (Aug 15, 2011)

wwind3 said:


> the violence is almost like a pilot-induced maneuver...full throttle nose over--hate to break out the tin foil but hard to figure what else could make a plane on a normal descent turn this violent so rapidly and no communication with air traffic control....
> 
> There was a 3rd guy on board in the jump seat catching a ride. But if there was evil intent one would think they would have waited a little longer to achieve maximum carnage. Hope they find the boxes.
> 
> To repeat what I said earlier Sully -was on a fullpower climbout-lost BOTH engines-communicated with ATC-did an unpowered 180 turn from a noseup attitude which could have caused a quick unrecoverable stall(stall speed increases greatly esp unpowered when in a turn) and glided perfectly into the Hudson River. For comparison to Flt 3591...


Who knows remember that flight that crashed in ny York 20 years ago? Where the reverse thrust engaged in flight?


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## Won Hunglo (Apr 24, 2007)

stdreb27 said:


> Who knows remember that flight that crashed in ny York 20 years ago? Where the reverse thrust engaged in flight?


That does not fit this scenario. Plane came down in one piece and was in a dive, not spiraling out of control while breaking up.


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## jtburf (May 26, 2004)

I have not read every post, does anyone beside me wonder if they were flying empty? I see no signs of goods or cargo containers in the imagery...

Do Cargo Planes return empty???


John


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## karstopo (Jun 29, 2009)

The voice recorder is the one they really wanted to find, more than the flight data recorder. Now it will be what they can get from the cockpit voice recording. If thereâ€™s anything on that it will point to what happened, something terrible on the mechanical end, a catastrophic load shift, or a whacked out pilot.


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## wwind3 (Sep 30, 2009)

karstopo said:


> The voice recorder is the one they really wanted to find, more than the flight data recorder. Now it will be what they can get from the cockpit voice recording. If thereâ€™s anything on that it will point to what happened, something terrible on the mechanical end, a catastrophic load shift, or a whacked out pilot.


Yep---altho I believe a pilot with evil intent would have waited a few minutes and crashed into Humble Tx --or the control tower itself for instance. Or maybe take a hard left and hit downtown Houston---about 25 miles south of the airport.

Probably would have been a fight in the cockpit to stop him tho' I would imagine. The suddenness of the event and no distress call is interesting.

Hard to believe that huge jet could do what it did without some pilot input--maybe the wrong input.

I'm still looking at the weather--my son lives almost under runway 26L flight path and at about that time he experienced a wind shift and a significant temp change-said it felt like temp dropped 20 degrees almost instantly.

If the pilot suddenly got a 50 knot tailwind and dropped his airspeed to 170-180 knots he would probably rapidly lose control. Even a 10 degree nose down attitude suddenly would probably cause a crash. The pilot had only a few seconds to figure out the problem and take corrective action----And if he was in the clouds and on instruments and the autopilot was off---pretty bad...and quick....

I believe he was close enough to the storm with the warm air and then the sudden cold air and winds--he maybe couldn't recover.

I would not rule out a downburst that slammed the plane into the ground or a dramatic wind shift which a plane flying at low altitude at 200-250 knots may not be able to cope with. That plane is not a Ferrari.


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## smokinguntoo (Mar 28, 2012)

This crash triggered the memory banks of an Alaskan Airlines plane that went down in 2000. The final inquiry found that the crash was caused by the lack of lubrication to a Chinese manufactured ball screw that controlled the elevator.

Ball screws are precision ground screws used in conjunction with a recirculating ball nut that provides low friction and low backlash precision movement of the desired application. They require lubrication and in many applications that is accomplished with a closed loop liquid lubrication system where low micron filtered oil is continuously recirculated to the ball bearings in the nut. However, on the airplane in question it was accomplished with a grease gun by a person. Link to the article is below. Here is a quote from the article:

*In this case, though, the screw moves up and down, to tilt the tail, and is connected to the frame of the plane by a nut. Soon after the crash, the safety board retrieved the assembly from the Pacific Ocean and found the threads of the nut torn out and wrapped around the screw ''like a Slinky,'' as one investigator put it. Today the board concluded that the reason was that the screw and nut had no grease on them, causing the thread to wear out more than 10 times as fast as expected, and finally to allow the screw to slip through it.

Investigators said that certainly the plane's last lubrication, and possibly several before that, were not effective. The nut has a fitting, like a car's, into which the mechanic is supposed to squirt grease until fresh grease flows out from the other side, but the fitting was plugged with a charcoal-like lump of old grease, investigators said.*

If you've ever greased the ball joints on a 10 year old '58 Chevrolet, you'll understand how this could happen.

https://www.nytimes.com/2002/12/11/us/alaska-airlines-crash-that-killed-88-tied-long-failure-lubricate-tail-control.html

There are many many things that could have caused this crash, but this just seemed eerily similar.

SG2


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## wwind3 (Sep 30, 2009)

a hard-over elevator would do it for sure. not sure which way it fails--up or down or maybe it just flops around with wind forces. would xplain what appears to be a catastrophic event that brought it down in seconds. 767's don't act like that.


NTSB seems unusually quiet---I know they are cautious and thorough--curious if they are picking up any signals from the boxes...


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## smokinguntoo (Mar 28, 2012)

wwind3 said:


> a hard-over elevator would do it for sure. not sure which way it fails--up or down or maybe it just flops around with wind forces. would xplain what appears to be a catastrophic event that brought it down in seconds. 767's don't act like that.


The ball screw and ball nut are in lock-step. If it failed the device being controlled just stops moving, where ever it is at the time.

SG2


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## wwind3 (Sep 30, 2009)

thanx smokingun2


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## Lat22 (Apr 7, 2005)

wwind3 said:


> a hard-over elevator would do it for sure. not sure which way it fails--up or down or maybe it just flops around with wind forces. would xplain what appears to be a catastrophic event that brought it down in seconds. 767's don't act like that.
> 
> NTSB seems unusually quiet---I know they are cautious and thorough--curious if they are picking up any signals from the boxes...


They found the CVR yesterday and are examining it in Washington DC. Should be some news pretty soon.


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## wwind3 (Sep 30, 2009)

Lat22 said:


> They found the CVR yesterday and are examining it in Washington DC. Should be some news pretty soon.


Thanx


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## Shallow_Minded (Sep 21, 2004)

A bunch of us here at work, (all commercial aircraft mechanics) have been reading up on this and believe another possible cause would be an uncommanded T/R deployment. This has happened before on a 767 which brought the aircraft down. Of course it's only speculation at this point.


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## Won Hunglo (Apr 24, 2007)

Shallow Minded said:


> A bunch of us here at work, (all commercial aircraft mechanics) have been reading up on this and believe another possible cause would be an uncommanded T/R deployment. This has happened before on a 767 which brought the aircraft down. Of course it's only speculation at this point.


History has shown us spiraling and breaking apart when that happens. This one just nosedived.


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## ralph7 (Apr 28, 2009)

Shallow Minded said:


> A bunch of us here at work, (all commercial aircraft mechanics) have been reading up on this and believe another possible cause would be an uncommanded* T/R *deployment. This has happened before on a 767 which brought the aircraft down. Of course it's only speculation at this point.


Tail rudder?
Wish folks would quit abbreviating so many things on the internet.
How much trouble is it to spell something out for clarity??


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## 4 Ever-Fish N (Jun 10, 2006)

Yes, in English please.



ralph7 said:


> Tail rudder?
> Wish folks would quit abbreviating so many things on the internet.
> How much trouble is it to spell something out for clarity??


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## Shallow_Minded (Sep 21, 2004)

ralph7 said:


> Tail rudder?
> Wish folks would quit abbreviating so many things on the internet.
> How much trouble is it to spell something out for clarity??


Sorry about that. T/R = Thrust Reverser.


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## Shallow_Minded (Sep 21, 2004)

Just came across - The FDR (Flight Data Recorder) has been found.


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## Shallow_Minded (Sep 21, 2004)

Won Hunglo said:


> History has shown us spiraling and breaking apart when that happens. This one just nosedived.


Not always.


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## wwind3 (Sep 30, 2009)

ralph7 said:


> Tail rudder?
> Wish folks would quit abbreviating so many things on the internet.
> How much trouble is it to spell something out for clarity??


 Maybe thrust reverser


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## wwind3 (Sep 30, 2009)

Shallow Minded said:


> Just came across - The FDR (Flight Data Recorder) has been found.


good news


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## DIHLON (Nov 15, 2009)

Lat22 said:


> They found the CVR yesterday and are examining it in Washington DC. Should be some news pretty soon.


If thatâ€™s the case, we will never know the truth. :rotfl: sad_smiles


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## Rockfish2 (Sep 1, 2017)

wwind3 said:


> Maybe thrust reverser


Yes, and that problem was supposedly fixed after the crash it caused. My understanding is the T/Râ€™s on 767â€™s are manually locked until the crew manually unlocks them when needed, i.e. on the ground when landing.


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## Shallow_Minded (Sep 21, 2004)

Rockfish2 said:


> Yes, and that problem was supposedly fixed after the crash it caused. My understanding is the T/Râ€™s on 767â€™s are manually locked until the crew manually unlocks them when needed, i.e. on the ground when landing.


Not true. An HIV, hydraulic isolation valve supplies power to a control valve which through a sequence of events locks and controls the T/R's. All of which is electronically controlled.

T/R's on 767's have deployed in air more than a few times.


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## BBCAT (Feb 2, 2010)

Channel 2 head line, 
"NTSB: Black box indicates loss of control before Trinity Bay plane crash"
No kidding!


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## Barbarian (Feb 12, 2009)

BBCAT said:


> Channel 2 head line,
> "NTSB: Black box indicates loss of control before Trinity Bay plane crash"
> No kidding!


I thought samething


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## Texans1 (May 18, 2018)

Went out Saturday and saw 10-15 of these Amazon prime packages floating between sea wolf and the dike along with a lot of other strange debris. Thinking it may be from the crash but not sure.


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## Momma's Worry (Aug 3, 2009)

BBCAT said:


> Channel 2 head line,
> "NTSB: Black box indicates loss of control before Trinity Bay plane crash....
> 
> there are two types of aircraft flight conditions......controlled and non-controlled ....
> ...


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## Rockfish2 (Sep 1, 2017)

Shallow Minded said:


> Not true. An HIV, hydraulic isolation valve supplies power to a control valve which through a sequence of events locks and controls the T/R's. All of which is electronically controlled.
> 
> T/R's on 767's have deployed in air more than a few times.


Well maybe they ought to make changes to how they are unlocked if it turns out to be an uncommanded T/R deployment here. Seems a little risky to allow such a known potential problem to persist, especially for passenger flights.


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## Momma's Worry (Aug 3, 2009)

suspect.....elevator bell-crank rivet failure ...jamming movement


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## wwind3 (Sep 30, 2009)

Still curious about the violence in the last few seconds of the flight--hard to believe a 67 can do what it did in so short of a time...


I would think they would announce something asap---if it might be something that should ground the rest of the 767's. 


I still wouldnt rule out weather--downburst and/or severe wind shift hitting it in the butt at a fairly low altitude. That weather change my son experienced was instantaneous--quick wind shift and rapid temp drop about the time this happened. Coulda played havoc with the control surfaces and maybe caused a stall. Be interested to know if voice recorder picked up a stall warning.


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## jtburf (May 26, 2004)

wwind3 said:


> I still wouldnt rule out weather--downburst and/or severe wind shift hitting it in the butt at a fairly low altitude. That weather change my son experienced was instantaneous--quick wind shift and rapid temp drop about the time this happened. Coulda played havoc with the control surfaces and maybe caused a stall. Be interested to know if voice recorder picked up a stall warning.


I promise you 1 thing, weather will be ruled out, bad turbulence drops planes not causing a severe nose dive...

Mechanical failure will be found as the cause.

John


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## karstopo (Jun 29, 2009)

https://www.khou.com/article/news/l...-bay/285-995878a9-070b-48e6-b75b-e9ea9e9abbf6

The video footage of the plunging 767. It kind of looks like right at the end the nose of the 767 is trying to come up as if the pilots had regained some control, but they ran out of altitude.


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## Barbarian (Feb 12, 2009)

Not sure if it's an illusion caused by camera angle - maybe not.


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## karstopo (Jun 29, 2009)

Iâ€™ve watched the footage a few times. The dive definitely looks a little less steep from the start of the video to the impact on the water. Maybe it is an illusion, but I think thereâ€™s a shallowing up of the dive and if they had some more altitude to work with, it might have been a better ending.


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## ReedA1691 (Jan 29, 2018)

karstopo said:


> Iâ€™ve watched the footage a few times. The dive definitely looks a little less steep from the start of the video to the impact on the water. Maybe it is an illusion, but I think thereâ€™s a shallowing up of the dive and if they had some more altitude to work with, it might have been a better ending.


When the video was released, an "expert" speaking on a local Houston news broadcast said the same thing, that they has to some degree, begun to get the nose up some. Not an illusion.


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## wwind3 (Sep 30, 2009)

jtburf said:


> I promise you 1 thing, weather will be ruled out, bad turbulence drops planes not causing a severe nose dive...
> 
> Mechanical failure will be found as the cause.
> 
> John


 cool--thnxâ€¦.


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## Momma's Worry (Aug 3, 2009)

*Impact Energy*

if you should wonder how big the crater is where Flt 3591 hit in Jack's Pocket mud ....look at the images of the crater where EA Flight 302(Boing 737MAX) went down on dry hard ground at about the same speed ....


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## Captain Marty (Jul 14, 2006)

Momma's Worry said:


> if you should wonder how big the crater is where Flt 3591 hit in Jack's Pocket mud ....look at the images of the crater where EA Flight 302(Boing 737MAX) went down on dry hard ground at about the same speed ....


Looks like about a ten foot crater.

https://www.facebook.com/EthiopianAirlines.GB/photos/a.1965182780378688/2338588339704795/?type=3


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## Ethan Hunt (Dec 7, 2007)

so this is by jack's pocket? Just see what part of north trinity to avoid


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## redexpress (Apr 5, 2010)

^^Bulkhead Cove


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## Barefoot Boy (Sep 27, 2005)

*Some Flight Data Recorder info released*

Recorder shows that immediately prior to the crash, nose was pitched down 49Â°, and throttles were increased to Maximum thrust, yet the stick shaker did not engage. sad_smiles


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## wwind3 (Sep 30, 2009)

Barefoot Boy said:


> Recorder shows that immediately prior to the crash, nose was pitched down 49Â°, and throttles were increased to Maximum thrust, yet the stick shaker did not engage. sad_smiles


???? Pitched down? Doesn't stick shaker indicate a stall along with an audible warning.. Wouldn't that mean a pitch up? I'm confused....

What you described sounds like a pilot induced maneuver---sure hope not.

wow...â€¦."""""""""""Also, about this time, the FDR data indicated that some small vertical accelerations consistent with the airplane entering turbulence. Shortly after, when the airplaneâ€™s indicated airspeed was steady about 230 knots, the engines increased to maximum thrust, and the airplane pitch increased to about 4Â° nose up and then rapidly pitched nose down to about 49Â° in response to column input. The stall warning (stick shaker) did not activate.""""""""""""""""""

https://news.aviation-safety.net/20...down-to-about-49-in-response-to-column-input/


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## HoustonKid (Dec 29, 2005)

So what does that mean. Down burst making it go slightly nose up then full thrust and then nosed over to their demise?


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## Hollywood1053 (May 15, 2009)

This doesn't sound good...



wwind3 said:


> ....the engines increased to maximum thrust, and the airplane pitch increased to about 4Â° nose up and then rapidly pitched nose down to about 49Â° *in response to column input*. The stall warning (stick shaker) did not activate.""""""""""""""""""
> 
> https://news.aviation-safety.net/20...down-to-about-49-in-response-to-column-input/


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## gigem87 (May 19, 2006)

So for us non pilots... this is saying that perhaps it was intentional?


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## catndahats (Sep 15, 2005)

This commercial pilot's interpretation does a good job addressing the facts that were released by the NTSB.








gigem87 said:


> So for us non pilots... this is saying that perhaps it was intentional?


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## sea hunt 202 (Nov 24, 2011)

That is really a bad thing


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## wwind3 (Sep 30, 2009)

My 2 theories were microburst and pilot input-----if it was sabotage I thought it occur later over a populated area nearer the airport.

To go from straight and level at 6000 feet and 230 knots to 49 degree pitched down column input & FULL THROTTLE and 430 knots in such a short period of time is almost Impossible without pilot input or autopilot gone crazy.

https://www.chron.com/news/houston-...e-lost-control-18-13664793.php#photo-17005908


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## Rockfish2 (Sep 1, 2017)

catndahats said:


> This commercial pilot's interpretation does a good job addressing the facts that were released by the NTSB.


Thanks, super-informative analysis from an expert.


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## Drundel (Feb 6, 2006)

catndahats said:


> This commercial pilot's interpretation does a good job addressing the facts that were released by the NTSB.


Interesting, he rules out a lot of things but doesn't guess on what caused the accident.

Based on what he rules out, what's left? Suicide?


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## jtburf (May 26, 2004)

Drundel said:


> Interesting, he rules out a lot of things but doesn't guess on what caused the accident.
> 
> Based on what he rules out, what's left? Suicide?


NO not straight suicide, murder then a suicide is a very remote possibility. You normally do that over open water so likelihood of recover is lower. It will come out as Electro/Mechanical between flight system computer and control surfaces. He is not speculating because he is trained to not speculate and he does not want to cross the boundary of employment by speculating.

John


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## WildCard07 (Jul 15, 2012)

One thing that came to mind while listening to the last posted video is the possibility that one of the pilots might have not been in their seat at the time of the accident. Maybe they hit a bit of turbulence as the pilot was returning to his seat and maybe lost his balance and fell into the controls accidentally pushing the throttles forward and the controls down. By the time he was able to get off the controls and attempt to regain control of the plane it was too late. The data released so far shows the dive angle reduced just before they hit the ground suggesting they were attempting to regain control. 

Now Iâ€™m not a pilot and I donâ€™t know the first thing about flying a plane. Iâ€™ve just heard countless accidents in my many years of boating caused by people falling on the throttle causing the boat to accelerate unexpectedly and lose control. So that is what comes to my mind when I hear the throttles were unexpectedly and unexplainably pushed to full throttle and the controls where pushed down at the same time. 

Regardless of what happened, this is a tragic accident and a very sad loss of life. If there is any silver lining it is that it happened in a remote area and did not result in more casualties on the ground. My thoughts and prayers are with the families and friends of the crew members on board.


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## Whitebassfisher (May 4, 2007)

Could auto pilot have gone bad enough to send the nose down and also full thrust, and the pilot tried to manually take over and pull it up?


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## wwind3 (Sep 30, 2009)

Whitebassfisher said:


> Could auto pilot have gone bad enough to send the nose down and also full thrust, and the pilot tried to manually take over and pull it up?


With the maneuvering they were required to do to land on 26L and avoid the weather and air traffic I suspect the autopilot was off.


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## Momma's Worry (Aug 3, 2009)

Could auto pilot have gone bad enough to send the nose down and also full thrust?
and the pilot tried to manually take over and pull it up?[/QUOTE]

YES and YES ....
on approach ....
some pilots fly the aircraft by hand and some fly the aircraft by the auto-pilot

I do both with our Ballanca Viking and Century 4 auto-pilot (but it can't control power settings)...and it has at times over-controlled the planes attitude....I simply turned it off with the yoke switch interrupt and take over manually then reset it...you cannot get distracted when down low and fast ....


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## wwind3 (Sep 30, 2009)

Momma's Worry said:


> Could auto pilot have gone bad enough to send the nose down and also full thrust?
> and the pilot tried to manually take over and pull it up?
> 
> YES and YES ....
> ...


That's a pretty hot plane...I bet landings are fun....How does the wood hold up? And the fabric? Always been curious about that.....


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## Momma's Worry (Aug 3, 2009)

wwind3 said:


> That's a pretty hot plane...I bet landings are fun....How does the wood hold up? And the fabric? Always been curious about that.....


the Bellanca is 41yo and I have crew-chief-ed and flown it for 35....no wood or fabric issues..best performance and value for the money hands down nothing even comes close.....no more to maintain than a C-182 which we had for 27 yrs...and which I learned to fly in....

We are going to fly a SEARAY amphibian the 25mls south down to Anahauc soon to survey the Flight 3591 re-covery effort there and take some photos ....FAA website does
not show a Tempory Flight Restriction in force there last I checked ....I know the area very well and have overflown it many times over the years


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## wwind3 (Sep 30, 2009)

Interesting transcript from Rush Limbaugh re: the recent crashes of the 2 737 Max....one thing he said got my attention-wonder if it relates to the 767.....

Does the 767 have a similar software as the 737 to compensate for certain flight characteristics?

**********************************************************
The computer program was supposed to do that independent â€" itâ€™s part of the autopilot system â€" and the pilots just trust that that was happening. But, for it to work, the angle-of-attack data that is fed into the computer has to work in concert with the MCAS, the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System thatâ€™s handling the trim tabs on the horizontal stabilizer. If theyâ€™re not in sync, then the airplane is gonna compensate by lowering the nose and raising the nose and lowering it and raising it. This apparently was happening in Lion Air and the pilots were having trouble disconnecting the MCAS system in the autopilot.
And eventually I think what happened was the airplane â€" because of the way all this was designed â€" lowered the noses full throttle right into the ground, and the pilots were unable to get control of it. So the fix for thisâ€¦ And none of this was explained. Apparently, the pilots are upset â€™cause none of this was explained in the flight manual for the 737 Max 8. Look, I love Boeing. Iâ€™ve had a tour of their manufacturing plant out in Renton, Washington, where they were making 747s. I was blown away by it.
*************************************************************

https://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/...HK-8p9dGnj6AKt8WYEhb3BWoQ6N5DV0bQm1YxdvtyXtxI


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## ibtbone (Oct 7, 2013)

Lots of interesting information here. 
Was the cause ever determined?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## Lat22 (Apr 7, 2005)

Nothing official,yet, but I found this on another message board a while back. 

Justï»¿ FYIâ€¦ weâ€™ve heard the full cockpit audio and seen the data. Hereâ€™s what really happened (name redacted please to protect the innocent!):

During the approï»¿ach, at about 6,000 FT (being flown by the first officer), the Captain reached around the throttle quadrant to extend the flaps to the next position after being called to do so by the first officer (pilot flying)â€¦ very normal. In many aircraft including the 767, thatâ€™s a very odd/difficult repositioning of your hand (from the left seat, all the way around to the right side of the center console), and requires intimate familiarity and slow/non-spazzy (technical term!)/deliberate motion to do successfully.
Well in any case, it was not done so this time. The captain accidentally hit the â€œgo aroundâ€ switch while bringing his hand around for the flaps, which brought boï»¿th engines up to full power. In the landing configuration, as this aircraft was transitioning into, that obviously causes a vast increase in liftâ€¦ and the first officer (pilot flying) used everything he had to force the nose back down. Still not sure why that occurred, as the crew should have just â€œgone aroundâ€ then and tried it again when properly configuredâ€¦ but they did not. And that started in motion a chain of events that lead to tragedy.
As the First Officer over-rotated downward, again with the engines at full power, the aircraft quickly accelerated and approached something weâ€™re all trained to handle (at least in good training environments)â€¦ an â€œupset recoveryâ€, countered by NON-AUTOMATION and basic â€œstick and rudder skillsâ€. Tï»¿his captain however, in turn, grabbed the controls without using positive command (â€œIâ€™ve gotâ€, â€œMy aircraftâ€, or anything normally done), and countered the F/Oâ€™s control input by completely hauling his control column full aftâ€¦ remember, while the F/O is pushing full forward.
In the process of doing that, he broke the â€œshear pinâ€ on his controlï»¿ column (a device/mechanical safety interlock used to separate a control column from the â€œinnardsâ€ of the control architecture in the event one control column is doing something it should not)â€¦ and that occurred here.
The captain, a few seconds later, now accelerating downward out of the control envelope of the 767 (remember, all of this started at 6000 FT and probably took less time to get to the fatal point than it did to read this far), recognizes the has no control column and then asks the F/O to pull up, get the nose up, or ï»¿something to that affect. It isnâ€™t 100% clear what he says.
The F/O then tries to pull aft on his column (going from full forward to full aft), but isnâ€™t getting the response he needs, because the aircraft is out of the envelope of controllability and the controls are â€œair-loadedâ€ in position.
At about 2000 FT, eventually the trim motors are able to start overcoming the air-load, and the aircraft begins to attempt to arrest its rate of descentâ€¦ but alas itâ€™s far too little, far too late, and the aircraft impacts about 30-40 degrees nose down, with what is believed to be about 4-5000 FT / minute rate of descent.
Oh by the way, the throttles arenâ€™t touched until somewhere during that laï»¿st few seconds of flightâ€¦ which is believed to be what enabled the trim motors to start working. Unclear who does it, and no audio indicates who it was.
Just FYIâ€¦ weâ€™ve attempted in our 767 simulators to recover from the event with the exact same setup, and thus far weâ€™ve only had success when starting at 8000â€™ or higherâ€¦ meaning we are fully established in the â€œout of controlâ€ position at 8000â€™, recognize it by then, and initiate recovery starting at 8000â€™. These guys started the whole thing at 6000â€™ and were much lower when a true recovery attempt was initiated. No chance, and just shows you hoï»¿w quickly you can get â€œout of the envelopeâ€ when you donâ€™t follow procedure, try some completely erroneous recovery technique, and donâ€™t have a clue what youâ€™re doing.

So many things went wrong with crew coordination, basic flying skills, aircraft envelope awareness, basic procedures, and suchâ€¦ that this will likely go down as one of the absolute worst â€œpilot errorâ€ events ever. It needs to have serious impact throughout the Amazon flying circus (and associated partnerships), and show people that Jeff Bezosâ€™ attempt to push the envelope at lower cost, all things else be damned, doesnâ€™t apply to aviation. This accident no doubt was absolutely horrible, and three people lost their livesâ€¦one of them (the jumpseater) through absolutely no faï»¿ult of his own. But making an approach into Houston, TX, it could have been so much worse. In another few miles, they would have been over major population centers and who knows what would have happened then.

Know your aircraft. Know your procedures. And for God sakes, just FLY! Itâ€™s not a video gameï»¿!ï»¿ï»¿ï»¿ï»¿ï»¿ï»¿


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## tbone2374 (Feb 27, 2010)

Good read... Thanks!


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## WildCard07 (Jul 15, 2012)

Wow! Thanks for the update. A very sad and tragic chain of events. Thankfully they were over the water at the time and had not made it to a populated area yet. This could have been exponentially worse.


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## 4 Ever-Fish N (Jun 10, 2006)

Why would/do they(FAA or whoever) allow pilots that did not have the proper experience to fly an aircraft that large, regardless if it was carrying cargo rather than humans? As others have said, this disaster could have been much much worse if the crash site was in a populated area.


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## ibtbone (Oct 7, 2013)

thanks for the update


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## Lat22 (Apr 7, 2005)

I don't know a thing about the credibility of the guy that posted that, but it definitely seems plausible. I know a guy who's in the industry and an Atlas jumpseater told him it was pretty accurate.


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## ReedA1691 (Jan 29, 2018)

Thanks LAT22


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## smokinguntoo (Mar 28, 2012)

From normal to down in 30 seconds. The pilot seemed disoriented. Inadvertently activated the "go around" switch.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/tourism-cruises/article238587338.html

SG2


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## c hook (Jul 6, 2016)

*wow*



smokinguntoo said:


> From normal to down in 30 seconds. The pilot seemed disoriented. Inadvertently activated the "go around" switch.
> 
> https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/tourism-cruises/article238587338.html
> 
> SG2


so the plane was doomed before takeoff. :texasflag


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## smokinguntoo (Mar 28, 2012)

Atlas also stated that if they had known of some of the pilots issues in aircraft with his previous employers, that they would not have hired him.

SG2


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## Lat22 (Apr 7, 2005)

The FO had no business being in that airplane. He'd failed everywhere else he'd been. When the TOGA switch was accidentally hit, he freaked out (just like he'd done in training everywhere else he'd been) and nose dived it into Trinity Bay.


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## BAMF32 (Feb 12, 2005)

*Report*



Lat22 said:


> Nothing official,yet, but I found this on another message board a while back.
> 
> Justï»¿ FYIâ€¦ weâ€™ve heard the full cockpit audio and seen the data. Hereâ€™s what really happened (name redacted please to protect the innocent!):
> 
> ...


https://protect-us.mimecast.com/s/0_lWC68M5xsrDqY2TpuJJs?domain=avweb.com


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## Drundel (Feb 6, 2006)

For those of you in the know, what's this about? The pilot's estate is suing because his FO caused the crash?

On May 20, 2019 the estate of Captain Sean Archuleta filed a suit against Amazon and Atlas Air in federal court. The suit accuses the defendants of failing to operate the aircraft in a safe manner.[39]

On September 9, 2019, the family of first officer Conrad Jules Aska filed a wrongful death lawsuit against Amazon and Atlas Air, citing improper training and negligence.[40]


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## Neumie (Oct 28, 2004)

Drundel said:


> For those of you in the know, what's this about? The pilot's estate is suing because his FO caused the crash?
> 
> On May 20, 2019 the estate of Captain Sean Archuleta filed a suit against Amazon and Atlas Air in federal court. The suit accuses the defendants of failing to operate the aircraft in a safe manner.[39]
> 
> On September 9, 2019, the family of first officer Conrad Jules Aska filed a wrongful death lawsuit against Amazon and Atlas Air, citing improper training and negligence.[40]


This is from a Buisness Insider article:



> "Atlas Air, which is contracted to fly Amazon Air's planes along with air cargo company ATSG, employed Aska. The company, according to the federal suit, "owed a duty to the decedent to maintain and use the subject aircraft with the highest degree of care, including a nondelegable duty to ensure its airworthiness, and to exercise the highest degree of care to prevent injury of any kind."
> 
> The airline also failed to ensure pilots were well-trained or well-rested, the suit states. The lawsuit claims that Amazon also played a role in those actions.
> 
> "Amazon knew or should have known that its history of overworking pilots and forcing them to fly under fatiguing conditions and with little rest time would create an unreasonable risk of harm or death to persons, like decedent, aboard the aircraft," the suit states. "


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