# 4:00 Ike update



## JOHNNY QUEST (Mar 6, 2006)

look out sabine.. don't ask how I know...

Good for us, bad for them..


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## Fishtexx (Jun 29, 2004)

I'll bite.... OK Johnny...How do you know ?????


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## JOHNNY QUEST (Mar 6, 2006)

My brother is southeast america saftey coordinator for a major oil co.

He already has the update.. We shall see. but every one of these things has taken that turn 24 hours out.. I said 2 days ago watch it from thursday at 2:00 till friday at 2:00 . that will be the determining factor...

I hope it s true but hope the folks in the path are ready and wish them good luck...


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## FISHNNUTT (Oct 27, 2007)

JQ I hope your right this thing will ruin my vacation in Galveston
in Oct.

BTW really like your new avatar !!!


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## Oceola (Mar 25, 2007)

Johnny,

I'm with you...hope you're right.
Yesterday when it shifted north east as much as it did I was hoping by over night it would be to the East of us. Just hope it does so we're on the "good" side of it.
Good luck to all.

Frank
P.S...Cool new avitar...we need a "Backyard Varmint hunting Board"


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## RC's Mom (Jun 6, 2008)

FISHNNUTT said:


> BTW really like your new avatar !!!


Pretty neat...it beats the heck outta Javadrinker's new one!!! LOL :rotfl:


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## dash8dvr (Jun 6, 2006)

Cantore just hinted that it looks like it may be moving northeast of forcasted track.


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## ShadMan (May 21, 2004)

4:00 shows Galveston/SLP landfall.


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## Freshwaterman (May 21, 2004)

Just looked at the 4 pm national hurricaine center's map and it shows it going to Galveston and Houston.


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## Javadrinker (Feb 13, 2008)

RC's Mom said:


> Pretty neat...it beats the heck outta Javadrinker's new one!!! LOL :rotfl:


you're just jealous is all


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## JOHNNY QUEST (Mar 6, 2006)

11 news is now leading up to the mabey... It will make a turn tonight that will steer it away from us.. Dr. Neil just said they may be off by 80 miles right now... be prepared.. Thats all we can do..


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## Profish00 (May 21, 2004)

///


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## JOHNNY QUEST (Mar 6, 2006)

How did so much of LA. get in the picture all the sudden..


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## JOHNNY QUEST (Mar 6, 2006)

Profish00 said:


> ///


 pro thats the 11:00 prediction


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## texan52 (Sep 7, 2004)

Pro, 
that's the 5 pm report eastern time which would be 3 pm central time zone.


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## JOHNNY QUEST (Mar 6, 2006)

texan52 said:


> Pro,
> that's the 5 pm report eastern time which would be 3 pm central time zone.


 nooo its the 11:00 am report .. it says right on the top...


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## TripleGrip (Oct 18, 2007)

look at underground weather one of the lines is to the east of Galveston.


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## texan52 (Sep 7, 2004)

I see the date on top but the time is to the right of the date


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## DEXTER (Jun 28, 2005)

Is this the right one?


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## JOHNNY QUEST (Mar 6, 2006)

DEXTER said:


> Is this the right one?


 Yep thats it, and it will be different tonight. its moved 250 miles east in 2 days now.. 1 more day and we are on the clean side....


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## ShadMan (May 21, 2004)

JOHNNY QUEST said:


> How did so much of LA. get in the picture all the sudden..


Because the storm is nearly 500 miles wide.  They just discontinued the tropical storm warning for the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico a few hours ago. This is a big 'un with hurricane force winds over 100 miles from the center.


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## Tslick (Aug 13, 2007)

JOHNNY QUEST said:


> Yep thats it, and it will be different tonight. its moved 250 miles east in 2 days now.. 1 more day and we are on the clean side....


That is what I was thinking too. Boarded the house up in Rockport yesterday morning and by evening it had moved to Freeport. Glad I was prepared anyway.


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## RC's Mom (Jun 6, 2008)

Javadrinker said:


> you're just jealous is all


Yep, I am..and whadda I tell you? All the "basketball" fans will luv it!


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## JOHNNY QUEST (Mar 6, 2006)

I'm not saying that it won't be a pucker facter here guys.. just saying that we will be on the cleaner side of the storm when it hits.. Its gunna be a heck of a ride for all of us still.. I'm just glad i don't have to worry about the dirty side..
It will swing north again and the models will change by 10:00 update..


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## RC's Mom (Jun 6, 2008)

Hey JQ...keep that attitude and we will all be good!


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## Aggieholic (Mar 30, 2005)

Hope it stays to the east of College Station. We need the rain, though. Here's to everyone's safety. Best wishes from Aggieland.


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## KG2 (Nov 15, 2006)

roger that huge relief although people still boarding up down here? cant imagine why...stay safe north of us, guys


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## YakMan (Dec 2, 2005)

Were boarded up and hanging tight here in Angleton.Dont want to wish it on anybody,but I hope it dont hit here. I just bought this house about 2 months ago.


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## The Driver. (May 20, 2004)

Still here at Matty! Looks like a Rita path again!


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## huntinguy (Aug 22, 2005)

Looks like we'll be catching it pretty good again! Got 22 inches from ol' Gus now we are gonna be ridin on the dirty side of this one while it pivots around us.

I've still got like 10,000 acres of farmland under. Not that it'll bother that much, many of 'em will be goin broke anyway.


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## JOHNNY QUEST (Mar 6, 2006)

huntinguy said:


> Looks like we'll be catching it pretty good again! Got 22 inches from ol' Gus now we are gonna be ridin on the dirty side of this one while it pivots around us.
> 
> I've still got like 10,000 acres of farmland under. Not that it'll bother that much, many of 'em will be goin broke anyway.


 Sorry Buddy!!! I didn't wish it on ya bro.. Stay safe and keep dry..


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## kenny (May 21, 2004)

I'm a Galveston evacuee and I want my FEMA Visa card.......no make that a check!

I think no matter which side of Houston it goes in on, it will be very bad for us that live on the West End, Surfside, and Bolivar.


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## Gary (May 21, 2004)

kenny said:


> I'm a Galveston evacuee and I want my FEMA Visa card.......no make that a check!
> 
> I think no matter which side of Houston it goes in on, it will be very bad for us that live on the West End, Surfside, and Bolivar.


Good to hear you made it out Kenny.


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## JOHNNY QUEST (Mar 6, 2006)

Glad your Safe Kenny.. the storm surge will be in reverse if it passes east and should lessen the impact.. Got my fingers crossed for ya..


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## JOHNNY QUEST (Mar 6, 2006)

Guys I'm afraid to post what i'm hearing from Impact weather..

They say the storm has only 87 mph winds right now and has weakend a tun.

They say Port Arthur cat 1..mabey 2. 
The oil company's pay dearly for thier service to manage thier rigs and thier coastal refineries.. My brother has kept me in thier loop from the start..
His co. pays 35,000 a year for them to advise on situations like this..

IKE CAT 1-2 MEDIA CAT 5.


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## BretE (Jan 24, 2008)

I'm with you J.Q. That's the one we use(my plant) and I've been watchin it all afternoon.....Hope this ain't too good to be true!


Bret


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## Stuart (May 21, 2004)

The way I see it, there are only so many hurricane hunter planes that fly into the storm. So, everyone has the same info as far as pressure and winds. Different entities make there own predictions from there.


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## JOHNNY QUEST (Mar 6, 2006)

Well Stuart, if your watchin the news now . They are un weaving the web they spun earlier when many families went out and spent hard earned funds on goods from the fear they create.. Now they have dropped the wind speed 30 mph in all area's of houston in the last 4 hrs. I know they have access to the most accurate reports but they use the most devestating one , instead of just being honest..
I'm buying stock in plywood every hurricane season from now on. I will be buying futures in bottled water, batteries, and canned goods also..


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## RTBROKKEN72 (Apr 19, 2006)

How will ike affect Palacios, Texas?
My in-laws live there and say they are not planning to leave...


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## scwine (Sep 7, 2006)

Don't know if this site has been posted yet?

For all you that live in Houston...... http://houstonhidefromthewind.org/


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## JOHNNY QUEST (Mar 6, 2006)

RTBROKKEN72 said:


> How will ike affect Palacios, Texas?
> My in-laws live there and say they are not planning to leave...


 they will probally be fishin saturday afternoon.


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## Capt. Hollis Forrester (Jun 17, 2006)

I'm still seeing Galveston,,, I hope you guys are seeing or hearing something I dont see,,,,Man I hope you fellas are right, please be right, PLEASE!!!


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## JOHNNY QUEST (Mar 6, 2006)

we are already on the clean side.. It will be better when ya wake up tomorrow and the media will be saying its a miricle... they have known about this as long as i have.. I posted the 4:00 update at 3:15.. here ya go...

keep in mind i live in pasadena.. it will move again in an hour or 2..


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## Dolphin Girl (May 21, 2004)

I've got impact open in another window and it says Bolivar Peninsula/East Galveston Bay and they MAY shift their forecast towards Port Arthur at 10 p.m.


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## kdubya (Jun 27, 2005)

Can you go ahead and give me the winning lotto numbers for tomorrow night?




Kelly


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## JOHNNY QUEST (Mar 6, 2006)

kdubya said:


> Can you go ahead and give me the winning lotto numbers for tomorrow night?
> 
> Kelly


 12 26 14 33 49 and 17


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## jabx1962 (Nov 9, 2004)

JOHNNY QUEST said:


> 12 26 14 33 49 and 17


You would have an Involuntary if those were the Winning numbers.


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## JOHNNY QUEST (Mar 6, 2006)

jabx1962 said:


> You would have an Involuntary if those were the Winning numbers.


Please splain yerself breaux... I would hope that the share the wealth thing came around.


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## WestEndAngler (Jan 30, 2007)

Man I hope your right JQ... We removed all the toys last night...


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## JOHNNY QUEST (Mar 6, 2006)

WestEndAngler said:


> Man I hope your right JQ... We removed all the toys last night...


 I spent over 300.00 today till my brothr called.
It will swing north again before landfall.. its 36 hours out now and has moved east every time they came up with an update.. I feel for La. they have had thier share of misery lately..


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## scm (Apr 27, 2006)

I am hearing the same report from a buddy who got his info. the same as you. I sure hope it turns out this way.


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## JOHNNY QUEST (Mar 6, 2006)

scm said:


> I am hearing the same report from a buddy who got his info. the same as you. I sure hope it turns out this way.


 Buy stock in home depot.. the media will make sure ya make money..

36 hrs out... it ain't comming here.. Total bull.


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## jabx1962 (Nov 9, 2004)

JOHNNY QUEST said:


> Please splain yerself breaux... I would hope that the share the wealth thing came around.


It means you best be wearing your Pampers if those are the Lucky Numbers.

I am still stuck in California. Watching this unfold. My son is in Sabine Pass. He told me he would be leaving to go to Louisiana tommorow. I think he may be headed the wrong way now?


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## ShadMan (May 21, 2004)

I hope for your sake that you're right, since you're likely responsible for somebody staying in their mobile home in Angleton instead of evacuating.


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## Stuart (May 21, 2004)

ShadMan said:


> I hope for your sake that you're right, since you're likely responsible for somebody staying in their mobile home in Angleton instead of evacuating.


Yep, it's looking better for Freeport, but it is still a big storm.


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## flapper (Jun 16, 2008)

*see ya!*

slp pier and bright lite grocery are history,and the house west of the pier that's on pilings out off the rocks about 50 ft. or so is going to crumble like toothpicks. no bueno por nada.


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## JOHNNY QUEST (Mar 6, 2006)

ShadMan said:


> I hope for your sake that you're right, since you're likely responsible for somebody staying in their mobile home in Angleton instead of evacuating.


 Shad I think that may be a late statement, since they were supposed to have evacked 7 hours ago...:frown:


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## FishinGrl (May 2, 2008)

my friend from UTMB's boss had a map of what galveston is supposed to look like after the storm. she said all if galveston was underwater..does anyone think there could be any truth to this happening?


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## JOHNNY QUEST (Mar 6, 2006)

FishinGrl said:


> my friend from UTMB's boss had a map of what galveston is supposed to look like after the storm. she said all if galveston was underwater..does anyone think there could be any truth to this happening?


 There is truth to it.. IF a cat 5 hurricane hits,, They have been showing that model all day.. It just doesn't happen to be the case here.. There is no cat 5 and there is no cat 4 and there is no cat 3.. What wea are looking at is a weak cat 2 storm that has a huge rain band with it.. lots of rain and some perty stiff wind for a bit..


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## kdubya (Jun 27, 2005)

FishinGrl said:


> my friend from UTMB's boss had a map of what galveston is supposed to look like after the storm. she said all if galveston was underwater..does anyone think there could be any truth to this happening?


If it is the same graphic they have been showing all day, that is the result of a Category 5, not the 3 we may get. I wish that hadnt shown that graphic, all it does is add confusion and undue fear.

Someone will get storm surge. Maybe disastrous flooding. But that map/graphic is not condusive to what is going to happen in relation to IKE's forecast strength.

Kelly


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## Nick Smith (Dec 5, 2007)

Nobody really knows what will happen.

See http://www.stormpulse.com/fullscreen/current for the best forecast I have yet to find. Click to turn on forecast models and look at those. That is computer based forecasts of the storms tracks. The majority of the computer models have it going right through Galveston, Houston and then Dallas.


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## TXPalerider (May 21, 2004)

Jeff Masters has been saying he doesn't think it will intensify as much as people have said, but, due to the size of the storm, it will have a surge worse than would be expected from a Cat2-3. 

We'll know soon enough.


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## Stuart (May 21, 2004)

And remember, they keep talking about midenight Friday, but that is landfall. Someone will start experiencing strong winds well ahead of that.


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## JOHNNY QUEST (Mar 6, 2006)

My latest update from Impact weather was 20 minutes ago..

They have moved the landfall prediction to east galveston/ boliver and its still
33 hours out. The storm has 100 mph winds and is showing signs of strengthening. 1 more click east and its all good for us, kinda.. its still gunna be a bitcccc.


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## Profish00 (May 21, 2004)

JOHNNY QUEST said:


> My latest update from Impact weather was 20 minutes ago..
> 
> They have moved the landfall prediction to east galveston/ boliver and its still
> 33 hours out. The storm has 100 mph winds and is showing signs of strengthening. 1 more click east and its all good for us, kinda.. its still gunna be a bitcccc.


Dang, it's coming back. I took all my boards down:headknock ......lol. Kidding


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## JOHNNY QUEST (Mar 6, 2006)

Profish00 said:


> Dang, it's coming back. I took all my boards down:headknock ......lol. Kidding


Funny Mark.. Its not comming back. Thier projected landfall is still P.A.

I guess I meant now. 33 hours from now will be different..


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## kdubya (Jun 27, 2005)

JOHNNY QUEST said:


> Thier projected landfall is still P.A.


Who's prediction is this??? I'm looking at every update, up to the minute graphic known to man, and they all converge between San Luis Pass and Boliver.

I'm not calling your info wrong, I'd just like to know where it's coming from (officially) and why is already available (to you?) but not being disimminated.

Kelly


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## seabo (Jun 29, 2006)

eyewall getting more defined


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## JOHNNY QUEST (Mar 6, 2006)

kdubya said:


> Who's prediction is this??? I'm looking at every update, up to the minute graphic known to man, and they all converge between San Luis Pass and Boliver.
> 
> I'm not calling your info wrong, I'd just like to know where it's coming from (officially) and why is already available (to you?) but not being disimminated.
> 
> Kelly


Kelly its coming from my brothers company's paid weather svsc. {10 billion$ a year co.} Impact weather is the svsc. that the oil company's use to help with thier coastal and offshore investments. It costs them 35 ta 40 thousand a year. If some of the other oil workers would post up they will tell you the same thing.. but they are not supposed to I guess.. There have been a couple posts that confirm my reports and i thank them for helping give this credibility.. You know as well as others that this storm is exactly and i mean exactly like rita.. its track is so close that you cant really see the difference..
I am just posting real info that is comming from a scource i can trust, not the media.. THE OIL industry has a large amount of funds at stake and they hire the best..
Randall


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## shorty70 (Jun 29, 2008)

No offense, but I have as much faith in 'couch meteorologists' as the ones on t.v. GLE


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## kdubya (Jun 27, 2005)

JOHNNY QUEST said:


> Kelly its coming from my brothers company's paid weather svsc. {10 billion$ a year co.} Impact weather is the svsc. that the oil company's use to help with thier coastal and offshore investments. It costs them 35 ta 40 thousand year. If some of the other oil workers would post up they will tell you the same thing.. but they are not supposed to I guess.. There have a couple posts that confirm my reports and i thank them for helping give this credibility.. You know as well as others that this storm is exactly and i mean exactly like rita.. its track is so close tha you cant really see the difference..
> I am just posting real info that is comming from a scource i can trust, not the media.. THE OIL industry has a large amount of funds at stake and they hire the best..
> Randall


Fair enough. Like I said, I wasnt calling you out on what you posted.

I have a feeling your info may/will be correct.

As a matter of fact, as I type this I am listening to streaming video from Gene Norman (Ch. 11) the storm seems to be tracking "even more to the east" and doesn't "seem to want to be strengthening".
The pressure is rising at the core as well.

We shall see


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## JOHNNY QUEST (Mar 6, 2006)

kdubya said:


> Fair enough. Like I said, I wasnt calling you out on what you posted.
> 
> I have a feeling your info may/will be correct.
> 
> ...


THANK YOU KELLY...
I'm just trying to spread some reality to the circumstance..

OHHH and that guy below ya can KMB....


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## txbigred (Aug 7, 2007)

Randall,
I sure hope you are right. This is the first one I boarded up for...still money well spent just for peace of mind even if it doesn't hit directly here. One of those tracks an hour ago showed it going right over my house!!!! Now, where the heck am I going to store that plywood....................


Dave


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## CaptDoug (May 24, 2004)

The Driver. said:


> Still here at Matty! Looks like a Rita path again!


I'm with ya Mike! I was just telling my neighbor, I've got a strong feeling it will hit east of us. We're all boarded up but not going to leave Shoreacres till tomorrow if I have to. Sorry for all ya'll in the Port Arthur/Beaumont area but I think ya'll are going to get more of this than us. The storm has moved east all day and we still have till tomorrow.


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## Hughoo222 (Aug 24, 2005)

http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/weather/09/11/hurricane.ike.texas/index.html


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## salth2o (Sep 21, 2004)

JOHNNY QUEST said:


> THANK YOU KELLY...
> I'm just trying to spread some reality to the circumstance..
> 
> OHHH and that guy below ya can KMB....


Well...you could never be a news person. You are supposed to spread panic and fear. 

I hope you are right JQ!


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## saltshaker1 (Feb 15, 2008)

shorty70 said:


> No offense, but I have as much faith in 'couch meteorologists' as the ones on t.v. GLE


LMAO!!

Having survived two of the most deadly hurricanes in recent history, Camille and Katrina, and then Gustav a couple of weeks ago, I do not think I would risk the health of my family to "updates" given by a reporter whose credentials consist of nothing more than a 12oz. can of Natural Light. The NHC seems to be holding firm to their projected path for a Galveston/Houston landfall. Ike's windfield is greater than that of Katrina so a vast area will be affected. Good luck to everyone in SE Texas. Stay safe.


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## fishingcacher (Mar 29, 2008)

Just heard at update from Frank Billingsley. He said the tracks have moved east.


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## scm (Apr 27, 2006)

I have heard these same reports of Ike moving east from similiar oil co. based reports. Listening to the local news reports it sounds as if some of them feel it may track east as well , but are holding out until the 10:00 P.M. info. comes in. I guess we will see in a few minutes.


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## fishnfool (Jul 23, 2004)

I think you are probably right (and hope you are!); however, I have access to ImpactWeather (and from a company much much larger than $10B if that matters somehow), and I don't see anyhwere that is says they are predicting landfall in PA. The latest says East Galveston, says they still think it could strengthen to a 3, and while it does say a shift NE is possible, it also talks of the possibility of a delay in the turn and landfall in Freeport.

I do think and hope you're right but am not sure what you are saying is actually what their forecast says.


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## JOHNNY QUEST (Mar 6, 2006)

I have been relaying info from another person. I trust him and he has been correct on the last 3 canes....



I WILL NOT POST ANYMORE UPDATES..


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## Hughoo222 (Aug 24, 2005)

I don't recall ever hearing the National Weather Service use the words "certain death" in a statement prior to about an hour ago. Made me pay attention.


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## ShadMan (May 21, 2004)

10:00 path is Freeport/Galveston, a little further west than the previous prediction...dirty side over Houston.


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## BradP (May 24, 2004)

the track is way off from rita btw armchair impact weather updater, take a look at wunderground for free instead of getting from a 10billion oil comany (small to mediocre in the oil business, must not be doing well... lol)


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## Profish00 (May 21, 2004)

I work for a company thats 6.4 billion in dept. They said hunker down.


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## saltshaker1 (Feb 15, 2008)

JOHNNY QUEST said:


> I WILL NOT POST ANYMORE UPDATES..


That's probably best.......

BTW, my neighbor works overseas for a "major" oil company. He just told me that they pay their janitorial services more that what your brother's "company" pays for hurricane surveillance.


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## ShadMan (May 21, 2004)

Profish00 said:


> I work for a company thats 6.4 billion in dept. They said hunker down.


:rotfl:


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## Capt "T" (Jun 1, 2005)

LMAO Saltshaker1


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## saltshaker1 (Feb 15, 2008)

Profish00 said:


> I work for a company thats 6.4 billion in dept. They said hunker down.


That's hilarious.......


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## Capt "T" (Jun 1, 2005)

I can't stop laughing. I'm sick of all this media BS. I've gotton tired of arguing facts with folks that don't know "JACK"


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## WestEndAngler (Jan 30, 2007)

I've already destroyed my emergency supply of popcorn on this thread...


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## Profish00 (May 21, 2004)

WestEndAngler said:


> I've already destroyed my emergency supply of popcorn on this thread...


I'm gonna need more beer,:doowapsta


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## WestEndAngler (Jan 30, 2007)

Profish00 said:


> I'm gonna need more beer,:doowapsta


I picked up a keg


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## Bucksnort (Jun 29, 2004)

well if you look at the latest track the prediction has moved east and the news guy just said the storm is pushing 100mph winds. Its calming down. Johnny Q must be getting some good info. keep posting Johnny.


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## saltshaker1 (Feb 15, 2008)

Profish00 said:


> I'm gonna need more beer,:doowapsta


Borrow some from 'Johnny Quest'.

Capt-T, I agree totally with ya. It appeared to me that this storm was being down-graded to nothing more than a summer breeze when the NHC still maintains it as a potential major landfalling hurricane. This ain't OU/Texas....opinions don't count as much. Let's leave this to the guys who are trained to track this storm.

Even in a serious situation....you guys are still funny as he!!.


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## Capt "T" (Jun 1, 2005)

Thank you Bucksnort!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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## captaintony (Aug 20, 2005)

*Johnny Q PLEASE KEEP POSTING!!!!*

Hey Johnny Q,

We would all appreciate it if you would keep posting!!!! We live down in Seabrook on the water and Hurricane is a word that we NEVER say...unless we have to.  This being the case, your imput and CORRECT information is most appreciated to us in a most STRESSFUL time!!!

Thanks for all of your help and for helping the stress level decrease,


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## Capt "T" (Jun 1, 2005)

It seems to me that the guys that are supposed to know how to track storms don't want to face reality. They use words like "Disaster", and compare it to storms like Carla...............when that's not really the case. I'm like the guy who stated that the weather guys must have stock in Home Depot


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## Cutter (Jun 23, 2004)

channel 11 guy said it is tracking more to the East, and "might" only be a Cat 1-2 by the time it makes landfall.

Looks like Johnney has good line on some intel.


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## txpoboy (Feb 27, 2008)

Please keep posting JQ, and thanks!


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## Capt "T" (Jun 1, 2005)

OOOH!! And please don't take a job with a 6.4 billion dollar company


txpoboy said:


> Please keep posting JQ, and thanks!


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## gregr1971 (Oct 28, 2005)

Dang It JQ!!!
Why are all these people on you? 
yall better watch it for ya get ya some red from JQ!!


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## Dolphin Girl (May 21, 2004)

Here's the deal folks... winds in this storm aren't the issues -- it's the surge. And from what I've heard from professional mets and from what has been confirmed on the statewide teleconferences, regardless of what the winds do, the surge is already "written on the wall." If a storm goes from CAT 5 to CAT 1 that doesn't mean that the storm surge is going to decrease. And a very reputable local met has said that just because the storm goes east of a particular point, that doesn't mean that the surge on the west side is going to be less.

FYI, just watched the 10:53 update and impact DID NOT move their forecast further east... they're still saying eastern Galveston Bay.


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## Profish00 (May 21, 2004)

I'm not bashing JQ, were buds


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## Profish00 (May 21, 2004)

Capt "T" said:


> OOOH!! And please don't take a job with a 6.4 billion dollar company


Checks are still good


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## vettaim (May 5, 2007)

2 pm today report I received was Sabine Pass


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## saltshaker1 (Feb 15, 2008)

Dolphin Girl said:


> Here's the deal folks... winds in this storm aren't the issues -- it's the surge. And from what I've heard from professional mets and from what has been confirmed on the statewide teleconferences, regardless of what the winds do, the surge is already "written on the wall." If a storm goes from CAT 5 to CAT 1 that doesn't mean that the storm surge is going to decrease. And a very reputable local met has said that just because the storm goes east of a particular point, that doesn't mean that the surge on the west side is going to be less.
> 
> FYI, just watched the 10:53 update and impact DID NOT move their forecast further east... they're still saying eastern Galveston Bay.


EXACTLY! Katrina hit our coastline as a Cat 3 (tho many still swear a 4) but, since her top winds reached 175+ far offshore, she was still carrying a Cat 4 surge when she made landfall. I agree, 20-30 miles east-west, doesn't matter....if you're in that eyewall you're taking the brunt of the storm...regardless.


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## Capt "T" (Jun 1, 2005)

Ms. TJ lol......you're 100% correct. I personaly witnessed water levels 4' above normal near Kemah at 7am this morning.



Dolphin Girl said:


> Here's the deal folks... winds in this storm aren't the issues -- it's the surge. And from what I've heard from professional mets and from what has been confirmed on the statewide teleconferences, regardless of what the winds do, the surge is already "written on the wall." If a storm goes from CAT 5 to CAT 1 that doesn't mean that the storm surge is going to decrease. And a very reputable local met has said that just because the storm goes east of a particular point, that doesn't mean that the surge on the west side is going to be less.
> 
> FYI, just watched the 10:53 update and impact DID NOT move their forecast further east... they're still saying eastern Galveston Bay.


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## ShadMan (May 21, 2004)

Actually, the 10:00 update moved it west about 30 miles from the previous track. Previous had the eye crossing east of Liberty county. Now the eye is crossing eastern Harris and Montgomery counties. Either way, the winds 100 miles from the center of this storm are exactly the same as the winds at the center. This is a big storm, though it isn't appearing to be as strong as initially thought. Cat2 is expected, possibly a weak Cat3.

I really hope the more easterly track turns out to be true, but every computer model has it hitting Houston right now.


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## Steelersfan (May 21, 2004)

*..*

Don't know if Karen posted this link before or it was someone else, but, it is a great compilation of many sources on one page. Take notice of the dates on each track forecast and model run.

http://web.tampabay.rr.com/wolfy/

And what JQ is doing is what they call "wishcasting" over on the Wunderground blogs. Anyways, like Karen said, the surge will be huge for this storm just because of its shear size. It is producing 10% more equivalent energy than Katrina did even though it is only a Cat 2 right now. Most sources are saying it will be a strong Cat 2 or Med. Cat 3 at landfall. That shouldn't mean a hill of beans to the coastal folks though that are threatened by surge. They should have left already.

Jeff Masters Blog is very informative over on Wunderground and there are a lot of smart individuals posting comments too.

Ike's turn is depending on the weakening of the ridge of high pressure and interaction with the trough of low pressure that is swinging through west texas right now. Here is the 5 am surface map of the US. Timing of these events is critical for Ike's eventual landfall and that error is probably still +/- 80 miles right now.

Stay safe everyone.


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## wfishtx (Apr 10, 2006)

I'm no expert, but from what I've read and heard from the experts, where the eye of the storm hits will have a dramatic impact on the storm surge. If you are lucky enough to be on the west side or "clean" side of the storm you will primarily receive a strong North wind, which will in effect push the water OUT of the bays and towards the gulf. If the water is being pushed out, the surge will obviously be much less than those on the "dirty" side of the storm receiving a very strong South wind, which is pushing the water inland.

I'm praying for another shift to the East of about 20-25 miles. This will put my parent's place (in LaPorte) on the clean side with a strong North wind and limit the surge.

Good Luck to all.



Dolphin Girl said:


> Here's the deal folks... winds in this storm aren't the issues -- it's the surge. And from what I've heard from professional mets and from what has been confirmed on the statewide teleconferences, regardless of what the winds do, the surge is already "written on the wall." If a storm goes from CAT 5 to CAT 1 that doesn't mean that the storm surge is going to decrease. And a very reputable local met has said that just because the storm goes east of a particular point, that doesn't mean that the surge on the west side is going to be less.
> 
> FYI, just watched the 10:53 update and impact DID NOT move their forecast further east... they're still saying eastern Galveston Bay.


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## Steelersfan (May 21, 2004)

Here is text from the NWS/NHC 7am forecast update....

"IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM.
*AN OIL PLATFORM IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 109 MPH...176 KM/HR...AT AN ELEVATION OF
400 FEET." *
That is borderline Cat 3; granted the winds are greater the higher in elevation you go.


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## WestEndAngler (Jan 30, 2007)

Channel 11 has live coverage now of Galveston... THey have a chopper up...


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## Marshman (Jul 24, 2008)

I have a place in Hackberry, the water is already over the road there, tides are 8' at Cameron ferry, 7' at Hackberry. Winds are from the NE still! Once it swings to the SE, it is really coming in! 

And the duck pond was looking SO good this year, as usual! Can't complain though, we still a good hunts after Rita.

MM


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## BradP (May 24, 2004)

I think your brothers company needs to put its money into weather underground and not their weather service.


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