# Ike - Breaking News



## Casey C (Dec 7, 2004)

In roughly one hour the National Weather Service will shift Ikes track more toward port O'connor. The latest model run has all but three of the models taking the storm between Rockport and Matagorda. This will be reflected in the 4pm advisory. According to wavewatch, there will be 38 foot waves south and southeast of Freeport.


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## ExplorerTv (Apr 18, 2006)

Our bayhouse in Port Alto is boarded up and ready for the worst. This storm does not look good for the Texas Middle Coast.


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## Ono Loco (Aug 4, 2005)

our private weather service - mirrors this opinion..


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## Sea Crappie (Aug 17, 2005)

These are the models if you care to look yourself. GFDL has been the best performing model so far this season (Disclaimer: I'm not a meteorologist)

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200809_model.html#a_topad


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## KevinA (May 22, 2004)

How do you know.

You a weather man or something.

not trying to be a smartass just curious.


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## FishinHippie (Jun 19, 2005)

nobody really knows... but the eyes of Texas are definatly on Ike


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## FISHIN COUG (Sep 28, 2004)

KevinA said:


> How do you know.
> 
> You a weather man or something.
> 
> not trying to be a smartass just curious.


Not a weather man but I think he's the VP of a crew boat company. Heck...if my investment was sitting or out in the path of a storm of this magnitude I'd be damned sure I'd invest or have first hand knowledge of where the storm is headed. When I used to work offshore E&P we invested a lot of money into tracking loop currents and storm prediction. I sure hope this storm doesnt head our way.


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## Swells (Nov 27, 2007)

FishinHippie said:


> nobody really knows... but the eyes of Texas are definatly on Ike


The storm ain't hit the Gulf yet ... but large scale models will be better calibrated for the 1700 EDT Update which comes out at 1600 CDT. Hurricane Hunter has been flying a bunch of missions, I think out of Eglin AFB in Florida.

Interesting now some track say Corpus area but the cone - the area which drift could be expected - still includes a powerful shot at SPI.

Anyhoo, the Governors Emergency Management Division has a telecon at 1630 to get briefed on the latest info ... local warnings are already posted and the mayors, county judges, and all have been alerted. So far, the advice is not to freak out.

That comes at the 72 hour warning ... if and where.


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## Chase This! (Jul 20, 2007)

*5pm Update*

fyi


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## whistlingdixie (Jul 28, 2008)

there is nothing to push this storm further south. the only thing this storm can do is go further north. once the jet stream hits the storm it will take a violent curve for the north. that is what all the spagetti maps are showing.if i was living in galveston right now i would be more worried then anyone else.


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## RonG (Jun 4, 2008)

whistlingdixie said:


> there is nothing to push this storm further south. the only thing this storm can do is go further north. once the jet stream hits the storm it will take a violent curve for the north. that is what all the spagetti maps are showing.if i was living in galveston right now i would be more worried then anyone else.


Well your partly correct from what I understand, there is also a cold front comming over the rockies right now, if it is on the coast when IKE hits it will pull it up into Galveston. If Ike gets here before the front it will still track southwest. From what I understand the storm would have to slow down some when it hits the gulf for the front to be here in time for it to pull it hard north into Galveston. Either way I think I will have reservations to get out of Houston for this one.


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## Crossroads (May 21, 2004)

As we all learned with Rita, a hurricane forecast that is only 48 hours from landfall is essentially worthless.


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## whistlingdixie (Jul 28, 2008)

my prediction will be the eye hits crystal beach on friday late night or early saturday am. i would put money on it if anyone wanted to make a ridiculous bet on something like that lol. j/k


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## Cat O' Lies (May 21, 2004)

There is a low coming from the West that can push Ike more to the North at the last minute. My bet is Ike will make a turn to the NNW late Thursday/ early Friday driving towards Matagorda/Sargent/Freeport shores.


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## catchysumfishy (Jul 19, 2008)

Cat O' Lies said:


> There is a low coming from the West that can push Ike more to the North at the last minute. My bet is Ike will make a turn to the NNW late Thursday/ early Friday driving towards Matagorda/Sargent/Freeport shores.


Darnit, i've had a bad headache for two day's, i think it's headed to sargeant and the dirty side is gonna knock the crudd out of galveston!


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## Lord of the Salmon (Feb 17, 2008)

I'll let everyone know how it goes if we get into the **** on the island as I have volunteered myself to help staff the ER friday night and saturday day if they need me.


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## bevo/fishing/hunting (May 10, 2005)

Looks like it's back over POC. All the models were suggesting further south this morning.. now they have it back in POC and possibly moving north further. I was hoping it would head to Mexico..


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## roundman (May 21, 2004)

we are starting to get a stiff wind here which may mean a front is sucking up wind to the north which means it will suck ike up the mid to upper coat; signed the weatherman


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## roundman (May 21, 2004)

they have been sayin if it slowed down it would move futher up the coast, it is now 10mph , instead of 13


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## bluewater bear (May 24, 2004)

I'm headin down to the house in aransas pass w some buds of mine to take care of everything after work. my folks r already there. our house is in pelican cove and the city is supposed to drop the storm gates either tomorrow or thursday. this freakin sux!!!!


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## Always-Gone-Fishing (Feb 20, 2006)

I agree 100%! We shall see in several days.
AGF



Crossroads said:


> As we all learned with Rita, a hurricane forecast that is only 48 hours from landfall is essentially worthless.


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## roundman (May 21, 2004)

my personal prediciction; sargent,, this is a bigun and the effects will be wide if it gets its act together and it looks like it still held pretty much together after cuba and now it has the ammo it needs to gain, no wind shear,very warm water and slowing foward speed, winds in these things dont really worry me, its the tornados they spawn, in alica in 83 i lived in santa fe , the next summer i found a 2 by 4 a half mile from the house in the pasture from one of the barns while mowing pasture, i had to use the hydryllic lift to pull it out the ground.


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## Hotrod (Oct 11, 2006)

Lord of the Salmon said:


> I'll let everyone know how it goes if we get into the **** on the island as I have volunteered myself to help staff the ER friday night and saturday day if they need me.


Luckily my wife is on the team for after the storm. I'll be staying for this one.


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## 6.5 shooter dude (Jan 8, 2008)

Well looks like I will be leaving San Antonio in the morning in route to Seadrift to get the boat a batten down the hatches. It does not look good for Texas middle coast.


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## capt. stealth (Jul 7, 2008)

After winning the Texas Legends I think mother naturer is coming after me!


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## Harley (Jul 5, 2007)

Looks like you need to take a vacation in Mexico real soon.


capt. stealth said:


> After winning the Texas Legends I think mother naturer is coming after me!


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## Drainplug (Aug 27, 2008)

The most comprehensive tropical weather site ever

http://web.tampabay.rr.com/wolfy/


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## bevo/fishing/hunting (May 10, 2005)

The track has not moved in the 7pm advisory.. still tracking towards POC.


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## jamesgreeson (Jan 31, 2006)

Hurricane wind speed ,faster goes left,slower goes right just my 2$.iT DOESN'T MATTER TO ME LONG AS ITS NOT HERE!


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## KJON (May 1, 2006)

whistlingdixie said:


> my prediction will be the eye hits crystal beach on friday late night or early saturday am. i would put money on it if anyone wanted to make a ridiculous bet on something like that lol. j/k


I'm in,,,,,PM sent.


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## outriger (Jun 26, 2007)

Probably a dumb question, since no one knows strength or where, but I have a boat in Sea Isle in a sling, would you go pick it up or rely on insurance if Ike decides to pay us a visit?


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## Hughoo222 (Aug 24, 2005)

*"It's not that the wind is blowing....it's what the wind is blowing"* 
Ron White



outriger said:


> Probably a dumb question, since no one knows strength or where, but I have a boat in Sea Isle in a sling, would you go pick it up or rely on insurance if Ike decides to pay us a visit?


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## awesum (May 31, 2006)

outriger said:


> Probably a dumb question, since no one knows strength or where, but I have a boat in Sea Isle in a sling, would you go pick it up or rely on insurance if Ike decides to pay us a visit?


I guess there are a couple of questions here ....

A) How much do you like your present boat?

B) Would you like a new boat?


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## Snagged (May 21, 2004)

Insurance may not cover it if it is trailerable


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## Kauffballs (Jun 2, 2004)

why would Ins not cover? What if you cant get down to get it?


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## Hughoo222 (Aug 24, 2005)

Seriously, my point was more along the lines of the boat being tossed around the neighborhood like a missle. That part of the island is not very wide or elevated, and even though the houses are on pilings a boat can do lots of damage if propelled by a wall of water, wind or both. Securing anything you can is a wise choice, and a neighborly thing to do. I lived on the west end and I have seen boats sink in the slip after a minor storm filled them up with blowing/sloshing water and they slid out of the sling and sank right there.


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## Snagged (May 21, 2004)

Kauffballs said:


> why would Ins not cover? What if you cant get down to get it?


 I said "may not cover", read your policy.


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## catchysumfishy (Jul 19, 2008)

Get it if you have a trailer for it! IMO, we should not depend on insurance to wipe our rearends and that kind of stuff is what makes our rates go up constantly! Insurance is for the things we can't help.....


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## Chase This! (Jul 20, 2007)

*11pm EDT Update*

Models are getting a bit tighter, except for the NGFDL. Not sure what's up with that one. Maybe there is a longhorn doing the math for that one.....


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## miguel4 (Aug 12, 2005)

Why, why, why when I have a planned trip to Baffin and the land cut this Saturday for my birthday does this storm have to mess with my head? Same as Hurricane Carla when I turned 11.


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## catchysumfishy (Jul 19, 2008)

miguel4 said:


> Why, why, why when I have a planned trip to Baffin and the land cut this Saturday for my birthday does this storm have to mess with my head? Same as Hurricane Carla when I turned 11.


Dangit, i hate when that happens!


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## outriger (Jun 26, 2007)

So a 2008 33' T-Contender "Trailable" would not be covered by insurance? Kind of find it hard to believe that such an insurance policy exist. Guess we better all read our insurance policies if that's the case.


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## Chase This! (Jul 20, 2007)

outriger said:


> So a 2008 33' T-Contender "Trailable" would not be covered by insurance? Kind of find it hard to believe that such an insurance policy exist. Guess we better all read our insurance policies if that's the case.


That's not what he is saying.

Some insurances say if the boat is trailerable, you have to make an attempt to remove it from harms way.

Brandon


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## catchysumfishy (Jul 19, 2008)

Chase This! said:


> That's not what he is saying.
> 
> Some insurances say if the boat is trailerable, you have to make an attempt to remove it from harms way.
> 
> Brandon


Yeah, it's kind of a common sense thing.......
:headknock


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## Htown (Mar 28, 2007)

*Capt. stealth see how far you can get into Mexico*

Harley,
I agree with you, Capt. stealth needs to go to Mexico, they need the rain anyway.
Lord of the salmon- If it hits our way, I will see you around Utmb(E-1,as well.)

Quote:
Originally Posted by *capt. stealth*
_After winning the Texas Legends I think mother naturer is coming after me!_


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## Roby (Jul 12, 2005)

Most insurance policies have a designated parking or storage location which can affect the cost of the insurance. If your boat is stored in a location other than that which is listed on your policy, your coverage could be compromised. I kept my boat in a wet slip at Eagle Point for years. When a storm got close Johnny REQUIRED you to remove your boat from the slip to protect the slip, stalls, docks, etc. Damage to your boat is your concern, the damage it's presence may cause to other property is your concern as well as your responsibility. You may held liable for being negligent and not taking appropriate action.


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## outriger (Jun 26, 2007)

Drainplug, thank you for that weather site, just what I spent hours searching for. That's a great site.


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## Cat O' Lies (May 21, 2004)

000
WTNT44 KNHC 101508
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008

THE NOAA AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A PEAK SFMR WIND OF 81 KT...AND
A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 957 MB. PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 84
KT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 80 KT ON THIS BASIS. 
THE SFMR AND FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THAT THE
HURRICANE WIND RADII HAVE EXPANDED. 

THE SMALL EYE OF IKE HAS BEEN LOOPING WITHIN A BROADER CYCLONIC
ENVELOPE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE OVERALL MOTION OF IKE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 300/7. THERE HAS BEEN ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE TO THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...WHICH CALLS FOR A SLIGHT BEND TO THE LEFT
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD HAS INCREASE
AGAIN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONCE AGAIN...THE GFS INDICATES
A MORE WESTWARD TRACK WHILE THE UKMET AND ECMWF SHOW A RECURVATURE
BEGINNING AROUND THE TIME OF LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS. USERS ARE REMINDED THAT THE AVERAGE THREE DAY
FORECAST ERROR IS NEARLY 200 MILES...AND THAT THE BEST ESTIMATE OF
THE THREAT IS GIVEN BY THE NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITY GRAPHICAL AND
TEXT PRODUCTS.

THE AIRCRAFT REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE SMALL INNER EYE IS ERODING AS
OUTER BANDS SURROUNDING THIS FEATURE ARE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. 
THIS COULD LIMIT RAPID DEVELOPMENT IN THE VERY NEAR TERM. 
HOWEVER...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS GOING TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...AND NOT MUCH LESS FAVORABLE
THEREAFTER. IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES IKE OVER SOME
WARM GULF EDDIES. WHILE THERE IS SOME DRY AIR IN THE WESTERN
GULF...AND INDEED SOME OF THAT IS NEAR THE CORE RIGHT NOW...THE
LARGE SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION AND OUTER BANDING SUGGESTS THAT IKE
SHOULD BE FAIRLY EFFECTIVE IN FIGHTING OFF THESE NEGATIVE EFFECTS. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE GFDL AND HWRF SOLUTIONS THAN
THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/1500Z 23.9N 85.3W 80 KT
12HR VT 11/0000Z 24.5N 86.8W 90 KT
24HR VT 11/1200Z 25.2N 88.6W 95 KT
36HR VT 12/0000Z 25.7N 90.7W 105 KT
48HR VT 12/1200Z 26.3N 93.1W 110 KT
72HR VT 13/1200Z 28.5N 97.0W 105 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 14/1200Z 31.5N 98.0W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 15/1200Z 34.5N 96.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

If its going to hit Texas by Saturday morning, it had better step on the gas. My calculation has it hitting Corpus Sunday night.


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## squidmotion (Apr 5, 2007)

not good


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## donkeyman (Jan 8, 2007)

Will this open Brown Cedar Cut back up????


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## S-3 ranch (May 26, 2004)

*mine is on blocks*



Kauffballs said:


> why would Ins not cover? What if you cant get down to get it?


we have been banned from 37 south to SPID in CC and it is on blocks getting hull work done i guess i am @#$% as marina is locked down and contra flow is going on


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## S-3 ranch (May 26, 2004)

*37 open ?*



pilar said:


> we have been banned from 37 south to SPID in CC and it is on blocks getting hull work done i guess i am @#$% as marina is locked down and contra flow is going on


with a shift the open up 37 south again but dont know for how long , good luck


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## shanker (Jan 15, 2006)

37 is not under contraflow at the moment


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## Laguna Freak (Nov 15, 2006)

*Dripping Springs (SW of Austin on 290)*

we've got a spare room and room to park a couple of rv's and or boats.

Rich (512) 845-0812


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## BradP (May 24, 2004)

3 mile cut will reopen for sure!! Last time that happened I found awesome green water on the south shoreline of east gorda and caught ladyfish and spanish macks in the mud wading on the bayside.


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