How low will the DOW go?

[CoastalSpecial]

I'm not even going to pretend I can wing a guess at this point.

[capt. david]

coastal i wish i knew. this is getting really bad. obama wake up all of your actions are not working! bet his approval rating is still over 60% though?

[txjoker]

AIG contributed to today's tank

[michaelbaranowski]

I wish it would start going back up. I have been putting my money in mutual funds as it contines to go down. But I think that now I going to wait a and just put money in my saving now rather than in my mutuals for awhile. I will just wait to see if it is going to get down to 6000 starts to go back up.

[Bill Fisher]

not much below zero

[OffShore Man]

I am just praying we get a breather at the 6500 DOW support line. NYSE Down/up indicators are over 20/1 and rising.

[Fubar]

I wish it would start going back up. I have been putting my money in mutual funds as it contines to go down. But I think that now I going to wait a and just put money in my saving now rather than in my mutuals for awhile. I will just wait to see if it is going to get down to 6000 starts to go back up.


I keep hearing the same thing from a lot of folks.......


the blood is in the streets.......I'm buying.

[OffShore Man]

-4.26% for the DOW today.

[StinkyTuna]

Make no mistake this is Obama's market. Take a look at the chart for the DOW and go back to when the campaign polls showed Obama with a 55% lead on McCain. This occurred in mid September 08. At that time the DOW was at 11388 and now it is at 6700. A 58% Obama slide down. Up here in Chicago, the local traders at the CBOE are saying it could go all the way to 5000.:headknock

[Wading Mark]

StinkyTuna, if it goes that low, we could see a real revolt against Washington (ie the Liberal politicians).

[StinkyTuna]

Lets hope so. Wonder whats going to happen when they try to take our guns. God help us.

[Wading Mark]

Lets hope so. Wonder whats going to happen when they try to take our guns. God help us.


They can send the National Guard to get mine. Maybe we'll see a bit of common sense out of Washington by Easter but that is doubtful.

[Laguna Freak]

"I inherited this problem from the Bush Administration. I swear! I mean just look at my votring record as a junior senator from Illinois, I was present. I saw him do it. It's all Bush."

Face it Barack is an idiot! If he isn't we better load up on ammo in a hurry.

[Fish-a-mon]

BUSH and OBAMA are both idiots who love to spend other peoples money. As far as the DOW it seems like everytime BHO talks the market reacts in a negative way. My suggestion is that he and his cronies keep there mouths shut.

US Savings bonds and Mutual funds are about your only recourse to make money in todays world

[CoastalSpecial]

What a disaster. I'm watching the news. It seems like the government is the gascan now.

I think the market will go below 5000. I wouldn't have said that two weeks ago, but after watching it fall and fall and fall...I don't know.

Stock up on beans.

[Sea-Slug]

I think the market will go to around 5500-5000. At those prices, 1990 prices, thats a bargain. People will start buying again at that price, I know I will. Its like buying land or a house at 1990 prices. When this turns around, I want to ride it up. It will go up fast!

[Argo]

im sure all the recent publicity for the $50 billion ponzi scam/pyramid scam that was perpetratd by a wallstreet godfather isnt doing much good for peoples trust in their investors.....

[drred4]

I think the market will go to around 5500-5000. At those prices, 1990 prices, thats a bargain. People will start buying again at that price, I know I will. Its like buying land or a house at 1990 prices. When this turns around, I want to ride it up. It will go up fast!

Don't want it to go up to dern fast or you will be paying capital gains and divendend taxes out of the wazoo. I looked up an etrade look of the Dow Jones average since 1979 I believe. It is a gradual climb until around 1996 when its starts really gaining and much more volitile. In 2003 it dropped quite a bit, but this is getting a little bit out of control now.

[w_r_ranch]

My estimate is that it will get between $3200 to $3800 for a couple of reasons.

The printing of more money is essentially the devaluation of the dollar. These newly printed dollars are being used to replace the capital losses of America's corporations (bailouts), as well as for advancing our leaders socialistic goals (AKA the 'stimulus package'). What the idiots in government don't understand is that if it were possible to replace wealth simply by printing money, humanity would have eliminated poverty shortly after discovering the printing press.

http://www.glennbeck.com/images/news/2009/01/012609pod3.jpg (http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/fredgraph?chart_type=line&width=1000&height=600&preserve_ratio=true&s%5b1%5d%5bid%5d=AMBNS)

The have increased the number of dollars 'out there' by ~70% in the last 6 months.

Six months ago, the DOW was a little less than 12000. Since we have essentially devalued the dollar by 70% , do the math: 12000 - 70% = 3600.


http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2008/11/20/business/20markets.graph.600.gif


The other reason is that the average American is more leveraged than Lehman Brothers and the process of deflation is just beginning. Wait till later in the year & 2010 and it will make what you see today nothing but a practice run.

The real shame of it is. that if left alone, this was a minor correction like we periodically see when people overindulge. The morons in government have tinkered with the economy in the past and have always made things infinitely worst. This administration is going to do some real damage to the average American's financial health...

[CoastalSpecial]

WR- I agree with most of what you're saying, but how can deflation be in the beginning stages after a 70% increase in money supply? I do agree that more money has been printed, but no one seems to have it.

[w_r_ranch]

I believe that the government will continue to print even more money so that they can continue giving more bailouts (like the additional $30 billion AIG got yesterday).

Also, the average American is still adding to their debt. I guess it makes them feel better when they buy something, even though they put it on the credit card. They too are hoping for a fed. bailout.

Watch the government's bond offerings over the next year or so.... Who do they think is going to purchase all these bonds??? The Chinese???? The Saudis??? I don't think so... they are not stupid, they invest $$$ to make $$$$ like any other businessman. What collateral does the fed offer as security??? Their 'good word'??? Even 'Guido' knows not to lend money to deadbeats that cannot afford to pay the vig.

In the end, taxes will be going way up for all of us taxpayers (especially since the 'new' tax dollar is not worth what the 'old' tax dollar was...

ALL in the name of socialism.

[CoastalSpecial]

I agree WR. I think the chili (containing government urine) we are going to be eating is going to be of an inflationary nature. If it were a deflationary depression/recession, I wouldn't be as worried because most people wouldn't lose value in what they've worked for. It wouldn't be a good situation, but at least you some value can be retained.

[Ponderosa Marina @ Luce]

Bernanke is on Fox Business now...everytime Barrock opens his mouth the market drops like a rock....then they put Bernanke on the screen to ease the pain...while the jokers on Capital Hill can ask him all these questions making you wonder what ship they sailed in on...what a mess....

[StinkyTuna]

Not to increase everyone's level of anxiety, but have you guys thought about who is on the other side of these trades in the pathetic market? The guy who has short positions on these sinking bank stocks. His name is George Soros and he in the largest monetary benefactor of the Democratic party. Wonder if he is behind the scene, managing all of this talking down of the economy and non-stimulus package bs. This all is probably part of a sinister plan for social engineering on the largest scale in history.

P.S. Sorry for making you guys puke in your mouth. Just thought it needed to be said.

[CoastalSpecial]

I think everyone's pretty much puked out.



Not to increase everyone's level of anxiety, but have you guys thought about who is on the other side of these trades in the pathetic market? The guy who has short positions on these sinking bank stocks. His name is George Soros and he in the largest monetary benefactor of the Democratic party. Wonder if he is behind the scene, managing all of this talking down of the economy and non-stimulus package bs. This all is probably part of a sinister plan for social engineering on the largest scale in history.

P.S. Sorry for making you guys puke in your mouth. Just thought it needed to be said.

[w_r_ranch]

but how can deflation be in the beginning stages after a 70% increase in money supply?

I'm sorry coastal, I didn't really answer your above question....

The deflation is just starting (IMO) as evidenced by the falling home values. There are some people that now owe more on their mortgage than their homes are worth. As these folk's day to day expenses (bread, milk, taxes, etc) continue to rise due to inflation, more homes will come unto the market causing values to deflate further.

[OffShore Man]

Allrighty I am calling it now. we will reach 4,000 DOW. And by the way I wont go long until we see who is left. 52,000 puts for june on GE were placed(wont be worth anything until the stock is below 2.30/share). That is 5.2 million shares that say GE will be bankrupt by June. Think about it.

Obama Says Now May Be a Good Time to Buy Stocks

Email (?Subject=Bloomberg%20news:%20%20Obama Says Now May Be a Good Time to Buy Stocks &body=%20Obama Says Now May Be a Good Time to Buy Stocks %0D%0A%0D%0A%20http%3A//www.bloomberg.com/apps/news%3Fpid%3Demail_en%26refer=home%26sid%3DaNSlj1_ eujVo) | Print (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aNSlj1_eujVo&refer=home#) | A (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aNSlj1_eujVo&refer=home#) A (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aNSlj1_eujVo&refer=home#) A (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aNSlj1_eujVo&refer=home#)



By Robert Hutton
March 3 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. President Barack Obama said “buying stocks is a potentially good deal if you’ve got a long term perspective.” He spoke at a press briefing in Washington while meeting U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown.
To contact the reporter on this story: Robert Hutton in London at rhutton1@bloomberg.net (rhutton1@bloomberg.net)
Last Updated: March 3, 2009 12:34 EST

[StinkyTuna]

Couldn't he make a stronger more positive statement than "potentially good deal". I swear this guy is trying to run the market into chaos! It is purposeful. Even if you don't have an IRA or 401K you will be affected. How are our parents going to retire? Welfare retirement?
This is the first president in history with deep contempt for the citizens of this great country. F**K Him!


Allrighty I am calling it now. we will reach 4,000 DOW. And by the way I wont go long until we see who is left. 52,000 puts for june on GE were placed(wont be worth anything until the stock is below 2.30/share). That is 5.2 million shares that say GE will be bankrupt by June. Think about it.

Obama Says Now May Be a Good Time to Buy Stocks

Email | Print (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aNSlj1_eujVo&refer=home#) | A (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aNSlj1_eujVo&refer=home#) A (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aNSlj1_eujVo&refer=home#) A (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aNSlj1_eujVo&refer=home#)



By Robert Hutton
March 3 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. President Barack Obama said “buying stocks is a potentially good deal if you’ve got a long term perspective.” He spoke at a press briefing in Washington while meeting U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown.
To contact the reporter on this story: Robert Hutton in London at rhutton1@bloomberg.net (rhutton1@bloomberg.net)
Last Updated: March 3, 2009 12:34 EST